In a conference where the best players often hit the transfer portal at some point, development is more important than ever. We saw it last year in the Missouri Valley with Drew Scharnowski at Belmont, JaQuan Johnson at Bradley, and Will Hornseth at Northern Iowa. Those are just a few examples, but there were plenty of others. In mid-major conferences, breakout players are the foundation of success.
Here are some breakout candidates I’m watching out for this year.
Maybe the singular most important thing that Evan Bradds did when he took the Belmont head gig is keep Jack Smiley in Nashville. The point guard from Valparaiso, Indiana, had a stellar freshman season and saw his role grow throughout the season, especially after Nic McClain went down with an injury. By the end of the season, Smiley was getting more point guard reps than anyone else on the Bruins.
In the final five games of Belmont’s season, Smiley scored in double figures in four of them. He had 18 points in an 87-70 win over Indiana State to help the Bruins clinch their first-ever MVC regular-season title. Most importantly, he displayed skills that I believe will translate between coaches.
Last season, Duke’s offense, which was assisted by Bradds, was an extremely efficient pick-and-roll/pop offense. The Blue Devils were versatile, but they did excel when their ball handler was put in positions to make plays. Unless we see a dramatic scheme change from Bradds, Smiley will assume the role of playmaker. His 97th percentile mark in P&R efficiency last season as well as shooting 44% from three makes him one of the premier offensive threats in the conference this season. Don’t be surprised if he is in MVC All-Conference first team or even Player of the Year discussions.
I was debating between Washington and Andy Johnson, but after the freshman season that Johnson had, I’m not sure that his sophomore season will constitute the breakout label. Washington, on the other hand, has a ton of room to grow.
Last season, Washington was not the engine that made UIC’s offense go, but he still provided plenty of additional value on that end of the floor. At just 6’5, Washington had a true shooting percentage of 61.1%. That was the highest of anyone on the Flames last season. The efficiency on twos and at the rim wasn’t the only way that Washington played bigger than his size. He was also nationally ranked in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.
This off-season, UIC brought in Gabe Cupps and Asa Thomas who both figure to play prominent roles on the perimeter. However, neither provide the physicality that Washington brings, so I expect his role to expand. If he can improve his outside shooting just a tad (33.8%) and maintain his efficiency from last season, I expect him to be a highly productive player and UIC to continue their upward trajectory as a result.
Kaden Magwood – Murray State
Transfers like Kaden Magwood often get a bad rap. You’ll see “former four-star” or something to that extent label thrown out to hype up kids, but what people realize is that a talented player transferring down a level can work. Look no further than the team that won Arch Madness last season. Leon Bond was a key piece for Northern Iowa in their run to the NCAA Tournament, and I believe Kaden Magwood can play a big role for Murray State this season.
While Magwood’s freshman season at Auburn does not give a ton of insight into why he could breakout, his high school tape does. At OTE as a senior, Magwood averaged nearly 25 points per game. He scored in a variety of ways as he is a good athlete that allows him to finish at the rim while also creating perimeter shots for himself.
Magwood certainly shown flashes both at OTE and on the Adidas Circuit as a 17u player with Team Loaded. I think transferring to Murray State will allow him to showcase his skills that he has put on display.
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