While the Rays’ rotation has performed pretty well so far this season, they could benefit from some reinforcements. They have several pitchers with relatively strict workload limits (Shane McClanahan, Griffin Jax, and Steven Matz) and will be without Ryan Pepiot this season. Even Drew Rasmussen will have his workload carefully managed given his injury history. I’ve already written about how Tarik Skubal could be a great fit for the Rays, but Freddy Peralta is another pitcher that could strengthen this rotation down the stretch and take the ball in a playoff series.
Peralta brings one of the more reliable track records among pitchers who could be available at the deadline. He has topped 160 innings in each of the last three seasons while consistently suppressing hard contact and generating swing-and-miss. Durability and bat-missing ability become increasingly valuable late in a season, especially for a club that will be managing the workloads of several starters. Peralta wouldn’t just strengthen the rotation; he would help absorb innings that otherwise would need to be distributed across the rest of the staff.
There may also be some untapped upside in his profile. Peralta still throws his fastball more than 50% of the time against both righties and lefties despite possessing multiple swing-and-miss secondary pitches. The fastball is good enough to support that approach, but there may be room for even more strikeout production if he leaned more heavily on his secondary offerings. Even if no changes were made, Peralta would immediately become one of the most important arms in Tampa Bay’s rotation.
The Mets currently sit outside the playoff picture, and if they remain there as the deadline approaches, they may decide to capitalize on Peralta’s value before he reaches free agency this winter. I think the cost to acquire Peralta would be greater than the cost to land Luis Arraez. It’s a short-term rental of a high-end starter rather than a potentially franchise-altering acquisition like Skubal, so Peralta’s cost sits somewhere between the costs of Skubal and Arraez. While Peralta remains one of the more attractive rental starters likely to be available, his value is lower than it was during the offseason because the acquiring team would only receive a few months of control. That should reduce the acquisition cost relative to what the Mets paid.
Just like Arraez, the group of players I could see headlining a package would be:
These are some higher-end names in the Rays system and it would sting to part with any of them, so that’s a pretty good indicator of what it could cost. Additionally, I think they would need to include another prospect from the group of upper minors Rule 5 eligible guys because starting pitching is the most expensive deadline commodity. The Rays also have more incentive than most contenders to consolidate prospect depth because of the roster decisions they’ll face this winter. Those names include:
Trading that type of prospect capital for only a few months of Peralta would be uncomfortable, but that’s usually the cost of acquiring impact starting pitching at the deadline. For a Rays team with postseason aspirations and looming workload concerns throughout the rotation, it may be a price worth paying.
