Welcome to our first edition of NL Central Power Rankings! We’ll release these rankings each week to grade all five teams and place them one through five. As everyone knows with power rankings, these should be taken as gospel and they’re obviously 100% accurate. Without further ado, let’s rank some teams!
1. Chicago Cubs (1-2); 69.9% chance to make postseason (Baseball Reference)
I don’t like putting the Cubs at the top, but I love nothing more than being wrong when overestimating our rivals from the south. They lost both games to the Dodgers in Japan earlier this month, but they bounced back with a solid Opening Day victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks late Thursday night.
Through three games, Ian Happ and Miguel Amaya have led the offense. Amaya has already picked up three doubles and leads the team with six RBIs, while Happ is 4-for-12 with three walks, a homer, a double, and four RBIs. Justin Steele hasn’t had a great start on the mound, making two starts spanning nine innings with eight runs allowed on 11 hits and a pair of walks. Even so, they have a solid rotation with Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, and Ben Brown (and Colin Rea to boot).
They’re ranked as the favorite in the division by just about everybody in the industry, but again, I hope the Brewers prove the doubters wrong.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (0-1); 64.5% chance to make postseason
The Brewers had a disappointing Opening Day in New York, falling to the Yankees in a 4-2 game that definitely could have swung the other way. Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, and William Contreras went a combined 0-for-13 with eight strikeouts, including five alone from Chourio, who had one of the worst Opening Days I’ve ever seen. I don’t think that’ll hold up over the course of the season, though, so I’m not worried yet.
Once the rotation is back to 100%, I think the combination of Freddy Peralta, Nestor Cortes, Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana, and Brandon Woodruff is as good as any in the division. Add great defense and league-average offense, and I think you have yourself another playoff ball club.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (1-0); 22.0% chance to make postseason
The Cardinals had a solid Opening Day, stacking up 10 hits and five runs against the Twins after a rain delay as Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Arenado both homered. I have to put them above the Reds and Pirates just because they’re all projected to be about even, and the Cardinals got a win while the other two didn’t. I don’t have much confidence in an aging team like this one and not trading Arenado this offseason seems like a mistake (yes, I know he has a no-trade clause, but still).
Sonny Gray is a solid ace, but the starters behind him (Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante, and Matthew Liberatore) don’t inspire much confidence. Ultimately, I think they’ll be sellers at the deadline.
4. Cincinnati Reds (0-1); 10.0% chance to make postseason
Elly De La Cruz is overrated. There, I said it. A betting favorite to win NL MVP, he’s a good five-tool player but I think there are also serious flaws there. He has a terrible strikeout rate (31.3% in 2024 ranked in the sixth percentile) and while he has a cannon for an arm, he makes too many errors. Do I think he’s an above-average player? Yes. The MVP of the Reds? Probably. The NL MVP? No way.
The Reds have had health issues the last few years that have kept them out of contention. If they can stay healthy this year, I think they easily could be the team to beat in the NL Central. After all, I did pick them to finish second in our standings projections.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (0-1); 3.9% chance to make postseason
Will this year finally be a changing of the tide for Pittsburgh? We’ll see, but yesterday’s loss to the Marlins can’t inspire much confidence. When you have Paul Skenes pitching every fifth day but still manage to lose as much as the Pirates do, I don’t think you’re giving much reason to believe. Speaking of pitchers, that rotation could be the best in the NL Central once Jared Jones is back, with Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jones as a three-headed monster ahead of Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney, and/or Carmen Mlodzinski.
With the exception of Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes, I don’t think there’s much offense, though, and that’s what will sink this team in the long run.
