The Cincinnati Reds are coming off of a year in which they had one of the better rotations in Major League Baseball. Most of the key cogs from that rotation are returning, too. Right-handed pitcher Nick Martinez is no longer with the team, but by the end of 2025 he was working out of the Reds bullpen.
As spring training begins everyone is healthy. And the top four spots in the rotation are locked in as long as there are no injuries or trades. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, and Brady Singer have spots locked in. That leaves just one spot open for the taking and Cincinnati has far more than one guy for the spot.
When it comes to who is vying for the spot in the rotation the two front runners are two of the guys who have already had success in the big leagues as starters and the 2023 and 2024 1st round picks by the team. Those two guys would be Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder. But behind them you’re got options with Chase Petty, Brandon Williamson, Julian Aguiar, and Jose Franco.
When it comes to pure stuff, Chase Burns stands out here. He’s got elite-level stuff that no one else in this group can match. Last year he had one of the best strikeout rates in baseball among pitchers who threw at least 40.0 innings in baseball. He had a disastrous outing in his second start where it seems that he was tipping pitches and the Boston Red Sox put up seven runs against him while he recorded just one out and didn’t record a strikeout.
Following that outing he worked to correct that and threw 39.2 innings after that, including his appearance in the playoffs, with a 3.18 ERA to go along with 15 walks and 60 strikeouts. He made eight starts on the season with Cincinnati before landing on the injured list and then pitching out of the bullpen upon his return for the final three weeks of the year. In four of his final five starts he had double-digit strikeouts. The only game in there that he didn’t was the game at Bristol where he struck out two batters in the 1st inning and then the game was halted by rain and resumed the next day.
Rhett Lowder doesn’t have elite stuff like Burns does. But he does have outstanding pitchability to go along with good stuff. In 2025 he wound up missing the entire season with a multitude of injuries. His elbow wasn’t quite right at the start of the year, but he made rehab starts in May but he would injure his oblique and miss the next four months. He returned in September to give rehab another shot but after his first start in Louisville he was sidelined when his shoulder didn’t respond as well as he and the club had hoped and his rehab was shut down. Three weeks later he was ready to go and did pitch in four games in the Arizona Fall League.
Lowder is ready to go now, though, and he pitched (along with Burns) in the spring opener. He had a 1.17 ERA in his six big league starts at the end of 2024 with Cincinnati. But there was a lot of stuff going on in that stretch that leaves one with some questions. He didn’t give up a home run in 30.2 innings, which isn’t going to continue. And he also had 14 walks to go with just 22 strikeouts – neither rate was good. With that said, his time in college and the minor leagues suggests that if nothing else he’s not going to walk nearly as many guys as he did in that span over the long haul. After a slow start in Double-A in 2024 it seemed like he flipped a switch and then was just lights out over his final seven starts before he was called up (he allowed four earned runs total in 40.0 innings). Include his time in the big leagues and he’s got a track record, albeit from two years ago, of dominating at the upper levels.
As noted above, those two guys seem like they’ve got a step up on the rest of the group. But if something brings one of the guys from the other group into the discussion, it’s Brandon Williamson from there who has some big league success under his belt. The left-handed pitcher threw 117.0 innings for the Reds in 2023 and a 4.46 ERA. That, though, was the bulk of his time in the big leagues as a shoulder injury in 2024 limited him to just four games in September before he tore his UCL and had to undergo Tommy John surgery. That kept him out for all of 2025.
Williamson will turn 28 during the first week of the season, making him quite a bit older than the rest of this group. But he’s also the only left-handed pitcher of the group. With two years of almost no pitching, though, the team may have a lower limit on how many innings they are willing to let him throw during 2026 than anyone else in the group.
The big question right now for those of us who are not employed by the Cincinnati Reds is what does Williamson’s stuff look like today? He’s had two major arm injuries in the last two years and he hasn’t yet pitched in a spring training game. Does his stuff match up to what he showed when he was healthy in 2023? Is it better? Is it worse? Right now we just don’t have those answers. We’ll get a slightly better idea of that on Tuesday when he’s schedule to make his 2026 spring debut.
Julian Aguiar, like Williamson, missed last season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery due to a torn UCL in September of 2024 with the Reds. The now 24-year-old had an ERA of 6.25 in seven starts with the Reds late in 2024, but he was hit-or-miss in that time. Two poor starts led to 13 earned runs in 8.0 total innings, while he gave up just nine in his other 23.2 innings.
Before his time in the big leagues he had found success in Double-A and was solid in nine starts in Triple-A and he’s currently rated as the Reds 10th best prospect. In 2024 he reportedly hit 100 MPH with his fastball, though he topped out at 97 in his time in Triple-A and MLB during the season. In his outing on Sunday he topped out at 95.1. Similar to Williamson, we haven’t seen much of his stuff since his surgery, but before the injury he had an above-average fastball and slider, while showing a solid change up and a fringy curveball. He’s got a history of throwing tons of strikes.
Chase Petty has been a highly rated prospect since he was drafted by Minnesota. At one point early in 2025 he looked like he was big league ready after having limited action in Triple-A and needing a starter the Reds called him up in April and he got crushed, allowing nine runs in 2.1 innings. He was back on the mound two weeks later and struggled again as he walked six in 3.0 innings against Houston. Six weeks later he would make his final big league appearance of the season and was charged with an unearned run in the 11th inning in St. Louis.
Despite his big league struggles, he was pitching very well in Triple-A in the first half. Through July 1st he had an ERA of 2.93 for the Bats with 57 strikeouts and 25 walks. But things fell apart for him after that. He made 14 starts from that point forward in Triple-A and had a 9.73 ERA with 33 walks and just 45 strikeouts, with a WHIP over 2.00. When he’s at his best he’s one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, but whatever happened in the second half of 2025 leaves him with a lot of questions to answer.
The last guy with an outside chance would be Jose Franco. He was the Reds minor league pitcher of the year in 2025. He threw 110.0 innings with a 3.11 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. In that time he walked 54 batters and had 118 strikeouts. He’s the least experienced of the group when it comes to the upper levels of baseball, but he’s also 25-years-old.
He missed all of 2023 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, but he came back and proved himself and then some. Last season he averaged 95.3 MPH with his fastball. In his first spring game this year he averaged 96.8 MPH with his fastball. He mixes in a good slider and a fringy change up. He wasn’t a consistent strike thrower in 2025, but was in 2024. If he can show more control he’s got the stuff to be a starter in the big leagues.
In the end the job is likely going to Chase Burns unless he pitches poorly. He’s just got so much more upside than the others do. Rhett Lowder is going to be in the conversation if he has a good spring but he’s going to have to have both better numbers than Burns and look better and more prepared to start the season than Burns in all likelihood if he wants to get the job come the end of March.
Everyone else is almost assuredly only going to be considered for a spot in the rotation if there are multiple spots that get opened up for one reason or another. They all have the potential to be big league pitchers, and there’s even some upside with this group, but they are just not there with Burns or Lowder right now. They all have more to prove and only Chase Petty has better overall stuff than Lowder (but not Burns), but Petty’s disastrous second half in Triple-A and his struggles in the big leagues last year have him needing time in the minors to get back to where he had been and prove he deserves a shot in Cincinnati when there’s an opening.
The depth here is good as the rotation in Triple-A is likely to feature one of Chase Burns or Rhett Lowder, along with top 10 organizational prospect Chase Petty and Julian Aguiar, top 20 organizational prospect Jose Franco, and possibly Brandon Williamson (though he could be considered for a bullpen role given his age).
