Analyzing the Josh Lowe Trade Return

Waking up to the news that the Rays traded Josh Lowe was bittersweet.

The first thing I wrote for DRaysBay was how excited I was about Josh Lowe heading into the 2023 season. The power and speed combo was exciting at the time, and the data suggested all he needed was an opportunity. Fast forward almost three years later, and I still think Josh Lowe can be an everyday ML player. I’m happy for him that he’ll have that opportunity with the Angels.

With that said, let’s look at the Rays 2026 outlook.

Short-term impact of the trade

I’m excited about the path to playing time this provides for Jacob Melton. Jacob Melton (and subsequently the Rays OF production and offense as a whole) might be the biggest winner in this trade.

I’ve already written about Melton, but a summary of what to expect from him is that he provides plus power, speed, and defense at all three OF positions with enough of a hit tool to make him an above average everyday player. Melton will have an even greater opportunity to win a roster spot during spring training.

The Rays also acquired a one-year stopgap in Gavin Lux – possibly to buy some time before Jadher Areinamo could be ready to take over the everyday 2B role in 2027. Lux seems like a relatively safe player the further he gets from his ACL tear in 2023, but his profile may be a bit redundant as he is incredibly similar on both sides of the ball to Richie Palacios (who also has dealt with some knee-related injuries). But Lux has no options, so I expect him to be on the Opening Day roster with some kind of role that includes reps at second base. Palacios has one more option year remaining, so he may be on the outside-looking-in this spring.

Lux has been a roughly average producer in his career. He pairs below average power with an above average hit tool to provide value at multiple positions. Lux’s acquisition continues the trend we’ve seen this offseason where the Rays are leaning more into bat-to-ball ability, possibly at the expense of power and impact.

The second base depth chart took a hit when Brandon Lowe was traded away, but it looks to be in an okay spot now with Lux. I think recent returnee Brett Wisely might not have a seat on the roster when the music stops at the end of spring training. He’s almost certainly behind both Lux and Palacios on the depth chart as a LH utility guy who can play a decent second base. Wisely is also out of options, so he might not even make it to AAA to serve as depth.

Long-term impact of the trade

This trade doesn’t end at Melton and Lux though. I think the main target in this trade was Chris Clark.

Clark is a low-slot RHP with a fastball that sits in the low 90s and can touch 95-96 at times. He’s 6’4, so his lower release height relative to his frame coupled with above average extension adds a layer of deception that helps his stuff play up a bit. He primarily works off an average two-seam fastball in the zone, and he has flashed a four-seam variant for whiffs above the zone.

Clark’s best pitch is his low 80s sweepy breaking ball. It’s an above average pitch that he’s comfortable throwing to both sides of the plate and he has plus feel for it. Clark also has shown a mid 80s offspeed pitch that looks like a split or kick grip with above average vertical separation from his fastball. While it might not be a viable offering yet, I think that it might be an above average pitch someday if he can continue to refine his command of it and maybe find a way to add some velocity separation from the fastball (that could mean adding more heat to the fastball or subtracting some from the offspeed pitch).

The command and control across Clark’s arsenal looks average and he doesn’t currently generate a ton of swing and miss, so he fits the profile of a backend starter right now; however, if he continues to develop his offspeed pitch or add a cutter to bridge his fastball and breaking ball shapes, I could see a mid-rotation starter. His feel for spin evident in his breaking ball suggests a cutter might be relatively easy for him to add to his toolbox.

Either way, Clark doesn’t appear to have much reliever risk as there’s room to add velocity, more pitches, and even refine his command.

The Rays traded from a position of surplus at the major league level to gain a pitching prospect they’ve potentially coveted while simultaneously filling a gap at second base in the short-term.

Interestingly, Gavin Lux is essentially Richie Palacios without options, as they have nearly identical power, plate skills, and defensive versatility.

Chris Clark is a slower-burn development project for Winston Doom and his team, but I think if we squint, we can see a potential mid rotation starter with interesting release traits and a pair of solid secondary pitches.