Carlos Carrasco and the Braves look to even series against Mets

After a crushing loss yesterday in which Spencer Strider struggled, the Atlanta Braves will be taking on the rival New York Mets again this evening in hopes of evening up the series.

In a pitching matchup that looks heavily in the Mets’ favor, Carlos Carrasco will be facing David Peterson. Carrasco is nearing the end of his career while Peterson is enjoying the best run of his.

Carrasco will be making his third start for the Braves tonight. It was no secret when he was added to the roster it was to eat innings. He gave up three earned runs in his first start for the Braves over 6.0 innings against the Reds on the last day of July. He did not do as well in his second start when he faced the Marlins. Against the Marlins he gave up nine hits and six earned runs while only accumulating two strikeouts in 5.2 innings. If there is any consolation it is that he has been eating innings so far and only gave up four walks total in his two starts. His 5.16 FIP in his two starts is also much lower than his 6.94 ERA. Of course, two starts are obviously a small sample size.

If we look at his entire season, there is reason to believe that his on-field numbers could improve. His expectancy stats (XSTATS) show that he has been unfortunate. They have not shown that he should be having what some would consider a good season, but his underlying metrics do look better. His xERA of 4.92 is much better than his actual 6.18 and his xwOBA against of .351 is much better than his wOBA against of .375. His 7.1 percent walk rate has also been in the best 32.0 percent of MLB.

The Braves will have to hope Carrasco sees some of that positive regression to the mean if they are going to have a chance of pulling out a victory tonight, because the offense will be facing a tough test.

David Peterson has pitched 254.0 innings since the start of the 2024 season and has held an exceptional 2.94 ERA. During this time, he has also been able to maintain a 1.260 WHIP. Interestingly though, his SO/BB ratio has only been 2.34. This is due to his high walk rate. This season it has been 8.2 percent, which is in the bottom 47.0 percent of qualified pitchers. Last season it was even worse at 9.0 percent. Unlike Carrasco, Peterson’s underlying metrics show that he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB.

This season, he has been elite at producing groundballs with an insane 55.4 percent rate. Only 7.0 percent of pitchers in MLB have been better. Outside of that, he has been far from good in terms of underlying stats. Long story short, this season he has an xERA of 4.28, and last season had an xERA of 4.56. To be fair, even if his xERA from the last two seasons was his actual ERA, he would still be a serviceable starter.

All of this is to say that there is a chance at some point we will see some negative regression to the mean for Peterson. If this evening is a step in that direction, it could go a long way in the Braves’ chances of pulling out a victory.

First pitch is at 7:10 EDT.

Game Date/Time: Wednesday, August 13, 7:10 p.m. EDT

Location: City Field, Flushing, NY

TV: FanDuel Sports South, FanDuel Sports Southeast, FS1

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan