Cubs series preview: To the friendly confines!

The Royals head to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field this week, just a train ride away. They swept the Cubs there in 2021, but have lost the series to them each of the last two seasons.

The Cubs have missed the playoffs each of the last four seasons, but come into this series with the second-best record in baseball. They cooled down in June with a 13-13 record, but they’re getting hot again, winning 10 of their last 15, with series wins over the Yankees and Red Sox in the last week.

Kansas City Royals (48-52) vs. Chicago Cubs (59-40) at Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL

Royals: 3.43 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 3.71 runs allowed/game (2nd)

Cubs: 5.28 runs scored/game (2nd), 4.04 runs allowed/game (11th)

The Cubs have a prolific offense this year, led by a breakout season by Pete Crow-Armstrong. The 23-year-old outfielder is the patron saint for trade deadline sellers, as he was picked up from the Mets four summers ago for veteran Javier Báez. After a slow start last year, he is third in baseball in fWAR and will very likely be the first player in club history other than Sammy Sosa to reach the 30/30 mark. If there is a weakness to PCA’s game, its that he hardly ever walks.

The Cubs have also gotten a terrific performance from All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker, who they acquired from the Astros last off-season. Tucker is one of just four qualified hitters with more walks than strikeouts. Michael Busch has really come on lately, hitting .328/.400/.664 with 13 home runs in his last 39 games. Seiya Suzuki is ninth in baseball in ISO at .284. Nico Hoerner is hitting .364/.394/.557 against lefties.

Wrigley Field has not been the friendly confines for Matt Shaw, who is hitting just .159/.265/.205 at home this year. Dansby Swanson is just 2-for-18 (.111) in his career against Seth Lugo. Manager Craig Counsell doesn’t use his bench much – his expected starters have made up 86.7 percent of total Cubs plate appearances this year.

The Cubs are third in steals with the second-best success rate. Crow-Armstrong is second among all players in Outs Above Average, and Nico Hoener and Dansby Swanson rate strongly up the middle. Carson Kelly has caught 35 percent of would-be base-stealers, the third-highest among catchers who have caught at least 10 runners.

Cubs starting lineup

Starting Lineup

OBA

SLG

wRC+

fWAR

Starting Lineup

OBA

SLG

wRC+

fWAR

1B Michael Busch (L)

351

.288

.373

.550

159

2.7

RF Kyle Tucker (L)

435

.279

.383

.500

147

4.0

DH Seiya Suzuki (R)

419

.261

.317

.545

137

2.2

CF Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)

413

.270

.306

.556

137

5.2

C Carson Kelly (R)

242

.267

.368

.505

146

2.2

LF Ian Happ (S)

414

.228

.324

.382

102

1.0

SS Dansby Swanson (R)

412

.251

.302

.423

102

2.0

2B Nico Hoerner (R)

390

.288

.336

.380

104

2.6

3B Matt Shaw (R)

239

.210

.285

.304

0.2

Bench

OBA

SLG

wRC+

fWAR

C Reese McGuire (L)

.209

.232

.448

0.5

IF Justin Turner (R)

135

.207

.289

.284

-0.3

IF Jon Berti (R)

103

.219

.272

.240

-0.3

OF Vidal Bruján (S)

.179

.195

.256

-0.2

The Cubs will start reliever Ryan Brasier as an opener on Monday, with former starter Ben Brown expected to be called up as a bulk reliever. Opponents are hitting just .095 against Brasier’s four-seamer, and have a 43 percent whiff rate on his slider. Brown leads the team in strikeout rate among starters, but had a 7.65 ERA over his last seven starts before getting demoted.

The Royals are expected to call up 45-year-old Rich Hill to make the start on Tuesday. He faces lefty Matthew Boyd, who the Royals remember from his days with the Tigers. He has bounced back from Tommy John surgery to become an All-Star this year, and is second in the National League in ERA. He has given up just 8 earned runs in his last nine starts for a 1.28 ERA, and is currently working on a streak of 16 consecutive innings without allowing a run. The Royals have traditionally hit him well though, batting .297/.340/.459 against him in 29 career games.

The Cubs have not announced a starter for Wednesday’s game, although Colin Rea could get the call. He has won each of his last four starts, with a 1.90 ERA over that time. Lefties have clobbered him, hitting .304/.363/.529 against him. He throws a 93 mph fastball that opponents are hitting .296 against, as well as a splitter, slider, curve, sweeper, sinker, and cutter.

Expected pitching matchups

Monday, July 21, 7:05 CT

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

fWAR

Monday, July 21, 7:05 CT

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

fWAR

LHP Noah Cameron

2.31

3.68

70.0

7.5

2.8

1.2

RHP Ryan Brasier

1.04

1.99

17.1

7.3

1.6

0.4

Tuesday, July 22, 7:05 CT

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

fWAR

LHP Rich Hill

–

0.0

–

LHP Matthew Boyd

2.34

3.18

111.2

8.2

1.9

2.7

Wednesday, July 23, 1:20 CT

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

fWAR

RHP Seth Lugo

2.94

4.37

107.0

7.8

2.6

RHP Colin Rea

3.80

4.72

97.0

6.5

2.5

0.5

Cubs relievers have a 3.60 ERA, seventh-lowest in baseball, despite the fourth-lowest strikeout rate. Hard-throwing Danny Palencia has a 99 mph fastball, fifth-fastest in baseball. He has been getting save opportunities lately, converting 13 of 14 so far. Chris Flexen has the fourth-lowest strikeout rate among relievers. Former Royals pitcher Caleb Thielbar has the tenth-highest hard-hit rate. Brad Keller has reinvented himself in Chicago, throwing in the upper-90s, with the ninth-highest groundball rate in baseball.

Cubs bullpen

Bullpen

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

fWAR

Bullpen

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

fWAR

RHP Daniel Palencia

1.53

2.64

35.1

9.9

2.8

0.8

RHP Brad Keller

3.07

3.27

44.0

9.0

2.9

0.5

LHP Caleb Thielbar

2.21

2.79

36.2

8.6

2.7

0.8

RHP Ryan Pressly

3.62

4.03

37.1

6.3

3.4

0.1

LHP Drew Pomeranz

1.71

3.20

26.1

8.9

3.4

0.4

RHP Ethan Roberts

6.00

7.09

9.0

6.0

2.0

-0.2

RHP Brooks Kriske

0.00

3.09

3.0

9.0

6.0

0.0

RHP Chris Flexen

1.47

4.02

36.2

4.7

2.7

0.2

RHP Ben Brown

6.13

4.10

79.1

10.3

3.1

1.0

The Royals seem likely to be sellers of some kind at the trade deadline, with Seth Lugo a likely candidate to be dealt. The Cubs are reportedly interested, and will get a chance to see him up close on Wednesday. The only way the Royals avoid being sellers at this point is to win nearly every game headed into the trade deadline. The Cubs pose a pretty big challenge to that kind of streak, but maybe the two teams can get a good look at each other’s inventory.