The Diamondbacks seem to have picked a lane. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that they are informing rival clubs that they plan to trade at least some of their veteran players, though the extent of their sell-off is still to be determined. Many of their players are impending free agents and qualifying offer candidates, so the trade returns would have to notably eclipse QO compensation for the Diamondbacks to pull the trigger on trading one of those players. It also seems they don’t want to totally wave the white flag on 2025, so they won’t just sell any theoretical candidate.
It’s a tricky spot for the club to be in. As noted by Rosenthal, the club may not want to punt the 2025 season. Back in 2023, they snuck into the playoffs with 84 wins and ended up going all the way to the World Series, eventually falling to the Rangers. But their 2025 club has been decimated by injuries, particularly on the pitching side. Corbin Burnes, Jordan Montgomery, A.J. Puk, Justin Martínez and others have required season-ending surgeries. Notable position players like Gabriel Moreno and Pavin Smith are also on the shelf.
Despite all of that, the club has hung around the playoff race. General manager Mike Hazen has spoken about how he would like to act as a buyer at the deadline but needed the club to justify that position by winning games. They came out of the All-Star break with a sweep of the Cardinals, but then got swept by the Astros. They are currently 50-53 and 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. They’re not totally buried but it seems the club has decided this may not be their year and some decisions should be made to help the club focus on the future.
Moving more clearly into seller position will have its advantages. With the expanded postseason, many clubs are still in contention, which makes it a seller’s market. By making some attractive players available, the front office could do a lot to help the Diamondbacks in the future.
Young pitching seems likely to be a focus. The rotation is set to lose Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly to free agency. Burnes will still be recovering from his surgery for a lot of next year. The 2026 rotation projects to include Eduardo Rodríguez, Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson. Rodríguez and Pfaadt are struggling this year. Nelson is doing well but has only really had a rotation spot for about six weeks, having been in long relief until injuries opened a spot for him. The Snakes could improve their 2026 rotation outlook by getting some younger pitchers now.
Eugenio Suárez seems the most likely player to be traded. He’s an impending free agent and his stock is tremendously high right now, since he’s been on a heater for more than a year. Dating back to July 7th of last year, he has 60 home runs, a .277/.334/.607 batting line and 154 wRC+. He has a $15MM salary this year, which will leave about $5MM left to be paid out at the deadline.
He will be highly attractive. He’s already been connected to teams like the Cubs, Yankees, Mariners and Reds. Rosenthal mentions those teams and adds the Mets to the pile. John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix says 12 teams in total have contacted the Snakes about Suárez. Bob Nightengale of USA Today says the Mariners and Yankees are the most aggressive of the suitors, though the market appears to be very crowded.
The Mets have a cluster of young infielders which includes Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. Baty is the only one in that group having a good season, though he’s also been playing some second base, so it’s possible he could co-exist with Suárez. The Mets are also reportedly willing to trade from that infield depth, so it’s possible Suárez could be brought in as part of a bigger shake-up.
With that hot market, it’s easy to the appeal for the Snakes in cashing in. It’s also possible that it could hurt their 2025 chances less than trading some of their other veterans. Jordan Lawlar is one of the top prospects in baseball but has been blocked from getting a big league audition. He can’t be expected to come up and produce at the same level as Suárez but it’s possible he could run with the opportunity and make up some of what is lost. He is currently out with a hamstring strain but could be back in the coming weeks. Even if he doesn’t come up and immediately succeed, there would be value in the Diamondbacks giving him an extended audition before they have to make key offseason decisions about their lineup.
There are some parallels on the other side of the infield. Josh Naylor is an impending free agent and consistently above-average hitter. Dating back to the start of 2022, he has a .272/.336/.462 line and 121 wRC+. He is making $10.9MM this year, which will leave a little under $4MM to be paid out as the deadline nears. Smith has been putting up big numbers the past two years and could take over for Naylor at first, though he’s currently sidelined by an oblique strain. Naylor has been connected to the Mariners though they are reportedly more interested in Suárez.
As mentioned, Gallen and Kelly are also impending free agents. Rosenthal has previously suggested the club is unlikely to trade both as they will still need innings to get through the season. That’s a bit of an odd hedge. They could always grab cast-offs from other clubs, Erick Fedde types, to finish the year. But perhaps the Snakes are trying to walk a fine line where they sell some pieces without totally punting their 2025 campaign. Trading one of this duo but keeping the other could be a compromise along those lines.
Kelly is having the better season but Gallen has higher theoretical upside. Jesse Rogers of ESPN recently reported that teams were a bit more interested in Gallen, despite the recent results. Gallen, 29, has a 5.58 ERA and 22.2% strikeout rate this year. Some of that might be luck, as he his 65.1% strand rate and 16.7% home run to fly ball rate are both to the unfortunate side. His 4.16 SIERA suggests he might not be too far from his past self, though his hard hit rate and barrel rate are also quite high this year, so it might not be all luck.
From 2022 to 2024, Gallen tossed 542 innings with a 3.20 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 44.4% ground ball rate, 3.20 FIP and 3.60 SIERA. FanGraphs credited him with 12.1 wins above replacement in that time, seventh among all pitchers. It’s understandable that teams looking for rotation upgrades, particularly for the postseason, would be intrigued by acquiring Gallen and getting him back to that level. He is making $13.50MM this year, which will leave about $4.5MM left to be paid out at the deadline. He’s been connected to the Blue Jays but should be of interest to several other pitching-needy teams.
Kelly, 36, doesn’t have the same ace ceiling but has been more steady. He is in his seventh season with the Snakes and has a 3.76 ERA. That figure was 3.37 in 2022 and 3.29 in 2023. Last year, injuries limited him to 13 starts and his ERA jumped a bit to 4.03. This year, it’s back down to 3.32. He has a 24.2% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 44.2% ground ball rate. He’s making $7MM this year, so he’ll have just $2.33MM left to be paid out at the deadline.
Any of those four players is a plausible candidate to receive and perhaps a reject a qualifying offer candidate at season’s end. The exact value of the QO hasn’t been set, but is likely to be somewhere around $22MM. The 2024-25 qualifying offer was $21.05MM and it usually goes up annually.
The Diamondbacks are a revenue-sharing recipient, which affects their compensation for a player rejecting a QO and signing elsewhere. If the player ultimately signs for $50MM or more, the Snakes would get an extra draft pick just after the first round. Less than $50MM and the pick would come just ahead of the third round.
While teams value draft picks, drafted players usually take a few years to reach the majors. The Diamondbacks are presumably hoping to contend again in the near future, while they still have core players like Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte putting up great numbers. By trading these impending free agents, they could garner returns of prospects who are closer to the majors than anyone they would draft next summer. That should move the needle to the trade side, though it also seems like they’re leery of totally bottoming out their chances of hanging in the race this year.
In addition to those names, the Diamondbacks could also sell other impending free agents, such as Randal Grichuk and Shelby Miller. Those players wouldn’t bring back huge returns, though they’re also less essential to the club contending down the stretch in 2025. The Snakes have also reportedly gotten some interest in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who is signed through 2027. They have also reportedly listened to offers on controllable outfielders like Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy. Time will tell how aggressively they smash the sell button but it seems like the Diamondbacks will be one of the most interesting clubs to watch over the next week.
Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images
