Before I dive in here, I want everyone to understand something. Last year, the league hit .245/.315/.404. Let that sink in. .260 batting average? That’s good! .330 on-base percentage? Also good! .450 slugging percentage? Wow! Power bat! So when you’re talking about how a guy can’t hit or whatever in the comments, please do it in context. This ain’t 1999.
The Premise
I was skimming through some comments here at Redleg Nation recently, and, as always, some folks have opinions about how the Cincinnati Reds should get better. I like a nice opinion myself, but I also like to be realistic and not just assume there are mythical solutions that don’t exist.
My basic thesis on how to be a good baseball team is that, first, you try to avoid blackholes in your lineup. Get guys who are at least average-ish everywhere you can. Then, you need a few genuinely good players to put you over the top.
Everyone knows the Reds need to hit better, but I wanted to break things down and look at the production they got from each position. And I am talk about positional breakdowns here. NOT individual players. First, let’s see where the Reds stand at each spot and then we’ll talk about where to improve. Some positions are stronger than others, so average varies. As an easy barometer, I’ll be looking at what the 15th best team in MLB did a lot in this article.
All Set Here
At shortstop, the Reds got 4.7 fWAR (editors note: the f in fWAR means that it’s the Fangraphs version of WAR, which varies in some ways from the Baseball-Reference version). That was 7th in baseball. If your shortstop has an off year and you still get that kind of production, you do not need to worry about short.
In center field, Cincinnati got 3.6 WAR. Most of that was from TJ Friedl, but the subs did well when they were there. The Reds ranked 10th in MLB in production in center. Nothing to see here.
Probably Okay
At first base, the Reds managed 2.0 WAR (14th in MLB), and it’s weird. Spencer Steer managed 2.1 WAR in the 117 games he spent at first base. He both hit and fielded better when he was at first. When he was doing anything else he was TERRIBLE. Of course, a big part of that, as we all know, is that Steer did not start the season healthy and couldn’t play the field. He also probably shouldn’t have been hitting either. Sal Stewart also came along to provide 0.4 WAR in 11 games, thus helping to balance some of the terrible they got from Christian Encarnacion-Strand at the start of the season.
At second base, a lot of people are grouchy about Matt McLain, and I get it. But second is also a very shallow position right now. The Reds got 1.4 WAR out of their second basemen, which was good for 19th in MLB. 15th (middle of the pack) was only 1.7 WAR. There is certainly an argument to try to improve here. I’m not claiming otherwise. But, given all the extenuating circumstances and the relatively shallow talent pool at the position, there is no really good reason to go down that lane.
At catcher, Cincinnati manages 1.7 WAR. And again, it was weird. Tyler Stephenson only caught 67 games, but his 0.9 WAR is much better than what the Red got out of Jose Trevino, who posted 0.3 WAR in 86 games behind the plate. The team is boosted at this spot a little by Austin Wynns having the best two weeks of his life (don’t read into his numbers, he went to the A’s and immediately returned to earth). In any case, the Reds ranked 21st in MLB here with 15th checking in at 2.7 WAR. So not great, but acceptable since there’s no one out there who figures to be much of an upgrade. Given Trevino’s age, the Reds might need to make him a true backup and hope Stephenson can stay healthy.
Erm…
I don’t know what to say about third. Santiago Espinal actually got the most time there for the Reds, and he was a disaster, generating -0.4 WAR at the hot corner. Ke’Bryan Hayes was second at the position in terms of playing time and managed 0.6 WAR. Noelvi Marte, third in terms of playing time, was actually the most valuable player overall when at third. His defense was bad, but he hit very well and managed 1.0 WAR there.
Overall, the Reds managed 0.9 WAR at third. That’s 23rd in MLB, but 15th was only checking in at 1.6 WAR, so it’s a shallow position right now. Between Hayes, Stewart, and Marte, the Reds can probably cobble something together. But I’m not sure what it’ll look like. Hayes managing to be only kind of bad with the bat would make him an All-Star level player because of his defense, and Espinal is gone. Shrug, I guess?
Blackholes
In right field, the Reds got -0.4 WAR. 15th in MLB was 1.1 WAR.
In left field, they got -0.3 WAR. 15th in MLB was 2.3 WAR.
Their designated hitters had -0.2 WAR. 15th in MLB was 1.2 WAR.
Right is probably the area of least concern here. You have to think that Marte will be fine there and probably hit above average overall. The Reds got some truly terrible sub work from Rece Hinds, Connor Joe, and Will Benson out there. I’d guess the Reds have either Hinds or Benson on the roster this year, but probably not both.
In left, it depends. Steer might end up as the starter there assuming Stewart takes over first. If he hits like he did once he was healthy last year, that’ll do just fine.
And so we’re left with DH. And the Kyle Schwarber talk. Or the big bat talk. It’s just what the Reds need. They can piece together a good defensive lineup. Guys are likely to be be valuable enough. The end of last season saw them piecing things together. But there is no extra bat. Not a single guy currently on the team works as a DH. The exception is maybe – MAYBE – Sal Stewart. But that feels like a bit of a waste. The club could try to marginally improve in a few places. And it might work. But the problem with getting a bunch of guys who project to be average is that, overall, the best you can hope for is average. Whether it is Schwarber or Cody Bellinger or Eugenio Suarez, the Reds need a scary bat in the lineup. DH is the obvious place to improve. And the Reds CAN afford it. They just can’t get a high-end DH and then sign a reliever for $4M they’ll release in June. Or another mediocre outfielder with injury history who will be a good addition if only he can get on the field.
So yeah, this was another long article saying that the Reds need a bat. Hopefully, I said it in an interesting way, though.
