Fool me twice: Guardians 3, Rays 2

In a tie game, the Rays ended the seventh and eighth innings on the with runners caught stealing. It was a disappointing loss after a strong start from Shane Baz. The Rays are once again looking up at the Guardians in the AL Wild Card race, and three games back from Seattle. When you’re digging yourself out of a hole this big, two-game losing streaks can’t happen.

In the bottom of the seventh, the Rays brought in rookie Carson Williams with the bases loaded and two outs to pinch hit for Tristan Gray. The game was tied 2-2, and speedy outfielder Jake Mangum was at third. Williams took a fastball for strike one, then whiffed at a curveball in the zone for strike two. Instead of letting Williams try to get out of that hole, Mangum surprised everyone but the Cleveland battery. Erik Sabrowski stepped off and whipped it in to Bo Naylor to catch him stealing.

On one hand, I can see how the math works out. Your expectancy to score one run is probably higher with Mangum attempting a steal of home than it is with Williams swinging away down 0-2. On the other hand, when it fails you seem foolish.

The eighth inning ended with Yandy Diaz getting thrown out stealing second, with Brandon Lowe up with two strikes. There’s a case for this decision as well, even if it’s not as strong. A successful stolen base means you could take the lead with a single from Lowe. If Diaz is out, you lead off the bottom of the ninth with a fresh count for Lowe and Junior Caminero right behind him.

Alas, Pete Fairbanks had another rough outing, allowing the go-ahead and ultimately winning run to score in the top of the ninth. B. Lowe, Caminero, and Josh Lowe went down in order in the bottom half. I would love to give Kevin Cash some truth serum. Were these attempts all part of the plan? Rogue decisions from baserunners? A guerrilla marketing campaign for the new Darren Aronofsky film, Caught Stealing? We’ll probably never know. But a win tomorrow is all but essential after dropping the first two in the series.