TODAY: Hader spoke with MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters today, and essentially ruled out a regular-season return given the amount of time it would take him to rebuild arm strength after a three-week shutdown. The closer is hopeful of being ready to pitch by the postseason.
AUGUST 15: The Astros announced that closer Josh Hader has been diagnosed with a capsule sprain in his left shoulder. He won’t throw for three weeks, and next steps for the star left-hander will be determined at that time. Houston placed Hader on the 15-day injured list earlier this week, though manager Joe Espada had already acknowledged prior to today’s announcement that his closer would miss more than two weeks.
Hader’s IL placement was the first injury of his big league career — and it’s a significant one. The ’Stros haven’t said whether surgery will be a consideration, but capsule repair procedures tend to come with considerable layoffs. Brewers righty Brandon Woodruff recently missed more than a year due to surgery to repair a capsule tear. Hader’s teammate, J.P. France, underwent capsule surgery early last July and only began a minor league rehab assignment on July 21 — more than a year later. He still hasn’t returned to a big league mound. On the other side of the coin, Michael Conforto suffered a capsule tear with the Mets late in the 2017 season and was back in the field the following April. That, however, was in his non-throwing shoulder — and the rehab process for an outfielder versus a pitcher will vary with any arm injury.
Obviously, every injury is different. Diagnoses and treatment plans are handled on a case-by-case basis. It’s not clear yet whether the damage in Hader’s shoulder is as significant as it was for Woodruff, France or any of the numerous pitchers who’ve previously undergone capsule procedures — nor is it even clear whether Hader will require surgical intervention at all. The Astros haven’t said one way or another and probably won’t do so until that reevaluation at the three-week checkpoint. Regardless of whether surgery is deemed necessary, Hader seems ticketed for a notable absence.
Right-hander Bryan Abreu got the first save opportunity in Hader’s absence, though Espada has suggested that he’ll take a committee approach to the ninth inning and make his decisions based on matchups rather than set roles. Lefties Steven Okert, Bennett Sousa and Bryan King could all factor into the ninth inning as well, depending on where the Astros are in the opposing lineup.
Even if Hader manages to avoid surgery, losing him for three weeks — likely a bit longer, if he needs a rehab assignment — is a critical blow at a time when the American League West race has tightened considerably. Houston’s once formidable lead has largely evaporated. The red-hot Mariners recently won seven straight games and have picked up a victory in eight of their past ten contests. That, coupled with a recent 2-8 stretch for Houston, has pulled Seattle within a game and a half of first place.
Notably, the two teams still have a series against one another left on the schedule: a three-game set in Houston from Sept. 19-21. The Astros will obviously hope Hader can somehow be ready to contribute at that point, but that feels optimistic based on the initial diagnosis.
Hader is being paid $19MM in the second season of a five-year, $95MM contract. He’s been exceptional this year, saving 28 games and pitching to a pristine 2.05 ERA with a 36.9% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in 52 2/3 innings.
