The Cincinnati Reds just flailed their way to a mediocre season and an uninspiring playoff exit. Again. The franchise feels frustratingly close to actually being good. And, to me, this offseason feels like a crossroads. To that end, this is the first of three articles I’m going to have here at Redleg Nation during the remainder of the playoffs.
Today is Part 1 where we take a look back at what I think of as the class of 2023. Part 2 will look at the choices the Reds made this year and what the roster looks like for next year. Part 3 is about what to do in the offseason with the goal of both acknowledging that the Cincinnati front office isn’t going to break the bank while also trying to get above 90 wins for the first time since Joey Votto was a baby.
Now, for Part 1.
In 2023, we all got excited. There was a new crop of kids (in fairness, a couple had arrived in 2022), and you could see a bright future. Now, two years later, we have a better sense of who these guys are. First, here’s a fun table (NOTE: I’m using fWAR for hitters because it does a better job with defense and bWAR for pitchers because pitcher fWAR is bananas.).
I’ve color-coded it to make it helpful and we’re gonna take this in three sections.
RED Is BAD
I wanted Will Benson to work out. I really did. But he’s had plenty of chances and has never managed to come close to recreating the magic he had in 2023. A team that wants to contend can’t have him as a regular in the lineup. He’s a good bench outfielder. Good defense, some power off the bench. But that’s it. He’ll be 28 next year and the chances he gets any better are statistically pretty slim.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand looks somehow worse. For most of us, I think the first impression has tilted how we see him. He killed the ball in the spring of 2023, but when he came up, he was okay at best. 0.6 WAR in not quite half a season isn’t anything to write home about. Since then, between injuries and an inability to understand the strikezone, he’s been an utter disaster. He can’t be relied on at this point and probably shouldn’t be rostered given the other options the Reds have at the corners. That stinks. A lot. He will be 26 in 2026 and while he’s got a couple of years of theoretical growth possibility, he’s too old to really be a prospect at this point.
GREEN is GOOD
Let’s start with the pitching. Here in the modern era, I guess we just have to be comfortable with guys not pitching as much as they once did. Even with limited innings Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, and Graham Ashcraft have all found a way to be top-tier contributors. Ashcraft, of course, has finally found a home in the bullpen, while the other three have been something between really good and holy crap good the last couple of years. That’s 3/5 of a rotation and a good 8th inning guy. Cool.
Elly De La Cruz is Elly De La Cruz. This year felt like an off year for him, playing through injuries and all that, and he still managed to put up 4.2 WAR. The only questions, at this point, are if he can rein in the errors a bit and go a full season without having an extended slump at the plate. In either case, 12.8 WAR through his age-23 season puts him on a hall-of-fame caliber track. He’s an All-Star, but is he an MVP? That’s what we get to see these next few years.
TJ Friedl is captain improbable. He shouldn’t put up the numbers he has, but he’s done it pretty consistently now. 2024 was mostly lost to injury for him, but this year he was back to his old self. He’s a great asset to have in center for now, ranging somewhere between good production and all-star production. The only thing I worry about is his age. He’ll be 30 next year, and that usually starts the downswing of a player’s career. He definitely profiles as a Chris Sabo type who gets to the bigs late, has some great years, and then tails off. We will see, of course, and for now, there’s no reason to worry too much, but I wouldn’t want to count on him forever.
YELLOW is COMPLICATED
Spencer Steer is likable. He plays a gorgeous first base. He hits like a pretty good middle infielder. And that’s a shame. I could have put him in red, honestly. He’s got three full seasons for the Reds and anyway you slice it, he rates as a below-average player. Yes, he’s one of the best defensive first basemen in the league. And if his OPS was 100 points higher, that would be enough. But it isn’t. He’s not a problem, per se, but he’s also likely done developing. He feels like a useful bench piece on a good team, but if he’s a starter, you need to be really strong in other parts of your lineup. I’m not sure the Reds can afford to send him out there with Sal Stewart around now (more on him in part 2).
Brandon Williamson is easy to write about. He might be good, but he has to be healthy first. The end.
I have to admit I was wrong about Noelvi Marte. I was completely out on him last year, but he rebounded nicely this year. If not for his dreadful end-of-season slump, he would have been in the green category, but that was rough down the stretch. He needs to learn to control the strike zone a bit better, but if he does he quickly becomes part of the solution to the outfield woes the Reds have been dealing with for years.
Matt McLain is the last one we need to deal with, and he’s almost as simple as Williamson, except the stakes are probably higher on him next year. He was great in 2023, then he was hurt, then he was bad. But I hope you all remember Eugenio Suarez. Shoulder injuries always seem to take two years. If I’m guessing, there’s a 60 percent chance that next year, he makes us all remember when we were debating if he would be better than De La Cruz and a 40 percent chance of something much less fun. If you are the Reds, knowing how shoulders take a long time to heal, there’s no reason to try to replace him. He was third on the team in WAR among position players this year, which tells you the Reds have much bigger things they need to worry about. But he also has a short leash. He’s gotta come back ready to go. Hopefully, he does and we get to see the recovery happen on the Reds we all wish we’d gotten to with Suarez.
