This Rays off-season has included a search for veteran starting pitching* for 2026, with three veterans with former experience with the Rays tabbed early in the off-season in former Opening Day starter Zach Eflin, the recently traded Zack Littell, or the team’s only departing free agent Adrian Houser.
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Unfortunately, two of those players are now off the board, with Eflin signing a one year, $10 million deal with an option with the Orioles last night, and Houser finding a two year, $22 million deal with the Giants earlier this month, and Littell is expected to sign for similar value to both.
*The Rays have signed LHP Steven Matz, who was vocal about trying his hand at starting again at age-34, but whether he is guaranteed a starting role is unclear. Additionally, the Rays rotation will presumably have room as the rest of the rotation includes Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, and Joe Boyle, alongside a hopefully returning Shane McClanahan.
The starting pitcher market is also in a bit of a logjam, with top free agents Ranger Suarez, Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, and Chris Bassitt still unsigned, but there is one free agent we can expect to decide his future this week: Japanese star RHP Tatsuya Imai, whose MLB negotiating window concludes Friday, January 2nd.
Imai, by his own admission after a recent meeting with his agent Scott Boras, does not have any formal contract offers in hand just yet, while the NY Post has linked his free agency to the Mets, Phillies, and Cubs.
A star in the Seibu Lions rotation since his age-20 season, he is undoubtedly the top arm coming stateside from Japan this off-season, and just had his best year at age-27, with a 1.92 ERA/2.01 FIP with a a 27.8% K-rate and 7.0% walk rate.
Imai primarily works with a fastball that sits at 95 mph, a gyro slider that could be one of the more unique breaking balls in 2026, and change-up to keep left handed hitters off balance. He works from a lower than average arm slot, providing extra movement to his off-speed pitches which averaged 15 inches of arm-side run.
This profile has drawn easy comparisons to Mariners ace Luis Castillo, who was signed to a five-year guaranteed deal in 2023 with a $21.6 million AAV, and Twins star Joe Ryan, with MLB.com’s David Adler also finding consistencies with the profiles Paul Skenes, present day Max Scherzer, and Trey Yesavage as well.
Imai is expected to command a free agent deal with a $22 million AAV, per FanGraphs, which is in-line with the one-year qualifying offer Shota Imanga signed to return to the Cubs this year, and just a hair better than the two-year deal 37-year old Merrill Kelly just signed with the Diamondbacks, but also below the $25 million AAV free agent Michael King got from the Padres coming off a down year, and farther still from the $27 million AAV, 7-year deal Dylan Cease just signed with the Blue Jays.
In other words, expectations have him in that second tier of free agent starters (after Cease, Suarez, and Valdez), but at an age a few years younger than his peers. The reason he isn’t in that top tier of starters is simply the lack of MLB experience. Any veteran signing from a league outside the US comes with inherent risk the Rays are already familiar with gambling on. Sometimes that risk pays off (Aki Iwamura) and sometimes it does not (Yoshi Tsutsugo), but for a team in need of length from the rotation that likely fancies itself as competitive in the AL East, potentially adding a top-flight veteran arm at a discount may provide depath to the Rays pitching staff that goes beyond the mere cost of $/war.
And while this might sound like a lot for the Rays, who only have four players making more than $5 million next season (Rasmussen, Matz, Cedric Mullins, and Yandy Diaz), it’s worth consideration that the Rays might also need to spend some money just to avoid a grievance with the MLB Players Association. If you’re going to have to spend, I’d rather see this Rays team bet big on a potential star than continue nibbling away at marginal improvements on the edges of the roster.
