Another holiday season is here, and with it more familial conversations about the Rays trading away their most important players and stars. Now that some dust has settled from the recent transactions, here’s a round up of evaluations of the Rays two recent trades of Brandon Lowe and Shane Baz from around the baseball blogging world.
Baseball Prospectus – Win for Pirates
Andrew Mearns called this deal “all just more of the same from Tampa Bay” and quipped that, “there won’t be many faces familiar to St. Pete” when the Trop reopens. Mearns clearly didn’t think much of the return for the Rays.
When the three-team trade above was reported on Friday night, there was a collective slow blink in the baseball social media sphere. That was partially the result of three-team trades being so rare and it taking a moment to process. But it was also partly because we were all coming to grips with the thought that for once, the Pittsburgh Pirates might have won a major trade.
RJ Anderson graded the three-team Brandon Lowe swap with a B — crediting Tampa Bay with picking up two of the more interesting prospects in the Astros system, but finding some flaws, like with Melton potentially not adding immediate punch to the Rays lineup that was lost by the deal, or by having to sacrifice many years of Montgomery while adding a pitcher who might just be a reliever.
In a past era, Brito would’ve already been assigned to a life in relief because of his size and delivery. He may end up there anyway, but the Rays have every reason to work with him on throwing more strikes as a starter.
The Rays spent Friday morning doing what the Rays do, which is converting their recognizable names with dwindling controllable years into multiple contributors
Bradford Doolittle writes that, “The aggregate potential of Brito and Melton makes this a win,” particularly given that the Rays can easily slot Carson Williams into Brandon Lowe’s place in the lineup. He also gave the Astros a D+ for their role in the three-way deal.
Brandan Gawlowski called it “a restock-the-farm kind of day for Tampa Bay” while wondering if getting Brandon Lowe’s $11.5 million salary off the books loses its shine when also dealing pre-arb MLB contributors like Mangum and Montgomery.
The safe bet is that they got two quality role players in this trade, but it would come as no shock if one or both exceeds that projection.
I’m not inclined to call this deal a winner or a loser for any team in particular […] The Rays managed to shed payroll while adding to their already deep collection of young players. There’s something for everyone here, and this trade helped each team consolidate its short-term strategy.
Joe Sheehan – “I’m fine with it”
Sheehan, in his newsletter, wrote that the trade would have been a “wash” had the Rays not added Mangum and Montgomery to the deal, but also noted the Rays “won’t miss” either player.
The Rays just didn’t give up all that much here: a pitcher they no longer trusted, a hitter who can’t field, and a glove man who can’t hit. They got a better version of the latter with more upside in Melton, and a pitcher with paths to success as a leverage reliever or a mid-rotation starter. They’ve taken on a lot more variance here, as both Melton and Brito could go to zero. It’s a risk they can afford to take.
Baseball Prospectus – “straightforward”
Craig Goldstein sees the Baz trade as typical “roster churn” enabled by the signing of Steven Matz.
The Orioles were in desperate need of not only rotation depth, but quality, and found both in an intradivisional deal with Tampa Bay. Baz arrives as a bit of a contradiction, but certainly an improvement […] but it’s hard to shake the notion that the price they paid per whatever unit of floor you’d like to use was fairly hefty and that the organization still needs to pull some additional levers to gain an advantage in what looks to be another brutally competitive AL East
RJ Anderson did not publish a formal grade, but when I reached out for his opinion, he noted the Alejandro Kirk profile of Bodine, a combination of three solid prospects, and the lack of trust for Baz to stay healthy make this a good deal for the Rays.
Anderson had write ups on Bodine and de Brun ahead of the 2025 draft that you can read here.
“This is a lot of good prospects for three years of Baz.”
David Schoenfield wrote that the Rays haul of prospects, “looks like a great return for the Rays from an Orioles team that was desperate,” and brings the Rays organization back into its usually standing as a top farm system. He also gave the Orioles a C for the overpay.
Eric Longenhagen praised the Baz trade for rebalancing the Rays farm system, which was depleted not by graduations but underperformance in 2025, writing how “they’ll again have one of the deeper farm systems in all of baseball” when org-level evaluations are published.
They traded Baz at the apex of his value, after his lone season demonstrating starter-quality stamina, for what feels like one nice piece per year of Baz’s remaining team control. If they can backfill Baz’s spot in the rotation internally, this will feel like a good deal for them 12 months from now.
Joe Sheehan – Wait and see
Sheehan’s writing on the Baz deal seemed underwhelmed, noting the lack of playing time to evaluate the prospects and that none seemed to slot into the Rays top-five prospects just yet, instead encouraging evaluators to, “check back in ten months.”
As for the Rays, well, they are always in a roster crunch, so adding a bunch of players nowhere near 40-man consideration helps them.
