Reds second baseman Matt McLain is better than you think

Matt McLain is an excellent baseball player. Too many people seem to be underrating him.

Matt McLain lost a year to a shoulder injury. What do we know, from long history, about injuries like this?

It takes a minute to get back into the swing.
Shoulder injuries hold power down for about a year after return.

For two months, McLain was a terrible hitter. This should not have been unexpected.

For the last two months, he has been a very good hitter, posting a .269/.345/.410 line that is good for a wRC+ of 110. The league average for a second baseman is .243/.309/.374, which yields a wRC+ of 91.

Did Matt McLain have a dip to start the season? Yup. Is his power down this year? Also yup. His ISO (slugging – average) is lower than its’ ever been before, including in the minors. Do we know why? Yes. Yes we do.

And we haven’t even talked about his defense and baserunning. The available metrics all rate him as somewhere between really, really good, and elite in those areas. Remember, a bunch of folks here wanted McLain to be the shortstop not that long ago. As is, he’s an excellent second baseman. And that matters. A lot.

So, you have a 25-year-old coming off a major injury that we should expect to cost him his power this year. He is an excellent defender and baserunner and, after, a slow start, has been an above-average hitter at a position without many good hitters.

I understand the compulsion to looks at a guy’s basic stats for this year and assume that’s who he is. But my goodness, we all follow baseball closely. We all know how it has ups and downs. McLain starting the season down was one of the most predictable things imaginable. It has not been the easiest year for him, but guess what? Over at FanGraphs, they have eight different projection systems that run as the season goes. When added to his current fWAR of 1.2, every single one of them thinks he will finish as an average or slightly above-average player this year (2.0+ WAR).

In an off year. When he missed the entire previous season.

So here, I’m gonna take a minor risk here: Matt McLain is gonna make an All-Star team or three before he’s through. Next year, I’m betting on him to be something like a 4 WAR player. Maybe better.