Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

The Milwaukee Brewers are set for a three-game series with their rivals to the south, as they’ll head to Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs beginning Tuesday evening. Chicago, at 44-28, sits in first in the NL Central, 5.5 games ahead of the 39-34 Brewers in second.

While the Brewers wrapped up their homestand at 5-5 thanks to a big series win over the Cardinals this weekend, the Cubs virtually matched that stretch, losing series to the Tigers and Phillies before taking three of four from the Pirates in Chicago this weekend.

Milwaukee’s injured list is still headlined by Brandon Woodruff, who is close to making his third rehab assignment with a late June/early July return possible. Fellow pitcher Nestor Cortes is throwing bullpen sessions and aiming for a post-All-Star break return, while outfielders Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins are both on rehab assignments with the ACL Brewers.

For Chicago, pitchers Eli Morgan and Shota Imanaga are both out, with Imanaga suffering his hamstring strain in their series against Milwaukee back in early May. They both could return this month. Drew Pomeranz is day to day with back tightness, and fellow relievers Porter Hodge and Javier Assad are also on the IL. Catcher Miguel Amaya is the only position player on the IL, and ace Justin Steele is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

The Brewers’ offense is led by Christian Yelich’s 14 homers and 43 RBIs, though Jackson Chourio is right on his tail with 12 homers and 42 RBIs. Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, and Chourio have all stolen over a dozen bags, and Yelich also has 10 steals this year. Frelick’s .294 batting average and .357 OBP lead the team, while Chourio leads with a .453 slugging percentage. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .236/.313/.364 (.677 OPS ranks 25th), with 65 homers (24th), 316 runs (12th), and 89 steals (third).

Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker are both in the MVP conversation for Chicago, with PCA’s 18 homers and 23 steals leading the team. Tucker is hitting .277/.389/.504, while Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch, and Ian Happ are also enjoying nice years. As a team, the Cubs are hitting .254/.324/.435 (.759 OPS ranks fourth), with 97 homers (fifth), 386 runs (second), and 90 steals (second).

Abner Uribe has anchored Milwaukee’s bullpen with a 1.31 ERA and 44 strikeouts over 34 1⁄3 innings this year. Grant Anderson is second in strikeouts with 36 in 34 1⁄3 innings, but his ERA has fluctuated throughout the season. Nick Mears, Jared Koenig, and closer Trevor Megill have also been solid. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.78 team ERA (13th), including a 3.38 starter ERA (fourth) and a 4.28 reliever ERA (21st). They’ve struck out 603 batters (13th) over 647 1⁄3 innings.

The Cubs’ bullpen has been fantastic, which is not something you could say about them in recent years. Brad Keller, Ryan Pressly, Caleb Thielbar, Daniel Palencia, and Drew Pomeranz have all been great. Keller leads the team with 31 appearances, striking out 32 in 33 1⁄3 innings. Pressly and Palencia have mostly split closer duties, with Pressly picking up five and Palencia picking up six. Pomeranz hasn’t allowed an earned run in 18 1⁄3 innings this year, while Chris Flexen has also allowed no earned runs over 18 1⁄3 innings as a multi-innings arm. Ryan Brasier and Génesis Cabrera have also been good to round out the bullpen. As a staff, the Cubs have a 3.57 team ERA (ninth), including a 3.87 starter ERA (15th) and a 3.16 reliever ERA (fourth). They’ve struck out 556 batters (23rd) over 645 2⁄3 innings.

Probable Pitchers

Tuesday, June 17 @ 7:05 p.m.: Chad Patrick (3.25 ERA, 3.48 FIP) vs. Ben Brown (5.71 ERA, 3.31 FIP)

Patrick had the worst start of his young career last week against the Braves, allowing five runs over five innings of work on seven hits (two homers) and three walks. He did manage to strike out eight in the loss. Overall, this season, he’s made 15 appearances (14 starts) with a 3.25 ERA, 3.48 FIP, and 71 strikeouts in 74 2⁄3 innings. This is his first career appearance against the Cubs, as he missed them when the Cubs were in Milwaukee earlier this season.

Brown has been the victim of some bad luck, as his 3.31 FIP is far better than his 5.71 ERA. Even so, he’s 3-5 through 14 appearances (12 starts), and he’s struck out 83 over 69 1⁄3 innings this season. His last start was a loss to the Phillies, as he allowed six runs on eight hits and three walks with five strikeouts over 5 2⁄3 innings. This is his third career start against Milwaukee, as he’s worked 13 scoreless innings over his previous two games. He picked up the win against the Crew back in May, going six scoreless and striking out four.

Wednesday, June 18 @ 7:05 p.m.: Jacob Misiorowski (0.00 ERA, 3.48 FIP) vs. Jameson Taillon (3.48 ERA, 4.60 FIP)

Misiorowski is coming off his first career start on Thursday night, a game where he went five-plus scoreless innings against the Cardinals. He struck out five and allowed four walks and no hits in that outing, picking up his first career MLB win as Milwaukee won 5-0. Through 14 appearances (13 starts) between Triple-A and MLB this season, he now has a sub-2.00 ERA (1.98) with 85 strikeouts and 35 walks over 68 1⁄3 innings. This is his first career start against the Cubs.

Taillon is in his third season with the Cubs after stints with the Pirates and Yankees to begin his career. Through 14 starts this season, he has a 3.48 ERA and 4.60 FIP, with 65 strikeouts across 82 2⁄3 innings. He’s also allowed 16 home runs this season, which is the most in the NL. He’s pitched fantastically for the last month or so, winning each of his last five starts as he’s allowed two or fewer runs in each game, totaling a 1.91 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 33 innings. He’s made 19 career appearances (18 starts) against Milwaukee in his career, with a 5-9 record, 3.13 ERA, and 93 strikeouts in 103 2⁄3 innings. He went six innings and allowed two runs with five strikeouts against Milwaukee in May.

Thursday, June 19 @ 1:20 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (2.60 ERA, 3.76 FIP) vs. Cade Horton (3.47 ERA, 3.74 FIP)

Peralta continues to have one of his best years yet, even if the walks are still an issue. Through a league-high 15 starts, he has a 2.60 ERA, 3.76 FIP, and 84 strikeouts across 83 innings. He’s been great in each of his last two starts, spanning 12 innings and allowing just one run on five hits and three walks, striking out nine in a no-decision against the Padres and a win against the Cardinals. He’s made 19 appearances (14 starts) against Chicago in his career, with a 7-2 record, 2.93 ERA, and 116 strikeouts over 83 innings. He went six scoreless innings in a win against them back in May, striking out seven.

Horton, 23, is a rookie and Chicago’s top prospect, ranked as the No. 32 prospect in baseball. He’s made seven appearances (six starts) this season for the Cubs, with a 3.47 ERA, 3.74 FIP, and 29 strikeouts across 36 1⁄3 innings. He went 5 2⁄3 scoreless innings against the Pirates in his last start, allowing three hits and a walk with four strikeouts in a no-decision as the Cubs ultimately lost in extra innings.

How to Watch

Tuesday, June 17: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin, FOX 6 in Milwaukee, and other local over-the-air stations across Wisconsin (see more details here), and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Wednesday, June 18: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Thursday, June 19: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Prediction

This is obviously a tough matchup against the NL Central leader, and being at Wrigley gives them just that much more of an edge. While Chicago’s offense has been a little bit quieter the last week or so, I still think they have the advantage here. I’ll take the Brewers to salvage one of three to begin the road trip.