Right-hander Shelby Miller underwent elbow surgery last week, according to the club’s injury tracker at MLB.com. He had his ulnar collateral ligament and flexor tendon repaired in the operation and is likely to miss the 2026 season.
The news doesn’t come as a surprise. Arm issues were a notable part of his 2025 season. With the Diamondbacks earlier this year, he went on the injured list with a forearm strain in July. He was still on the IL when the Brewers acquired him at the deadline. Milwaukee was surely aware that it was a risky pick-up, which is why they didn’t include any prospect capital in the deal. They instead took on $2MM of Jordan Montgomery’s deal for a player to be named later or cash, meaning Arizona only got cost savings.
Miller came off the IL in mid-August but felt a “pop” in his elbow in early September. He was then diagnosed with a sprained UCL and placed on the 60-day IL. He told reporters that a second career Tommy John surgery was a distinct possibility.
The righty is an impending free agent. Since he will likely miss all of next season, his market will obviously be impacted. Pitchers in this situation will sometimes receive two-year offers. Those pacts allow hurlers to make some money while rehabbing, with the team hoping for return on that investment in the second season. Miller may be hard-pressed to find such an offer, however. He is 35 years old now, meaning his likely return in 2027 would come after his 36th birthday. The track record for pitchers coming back from a second UCL surgery isn’t as strong as after just one.
He did have a good season. He tossed 46 innings between the Diamondbacks and Brewers, allowing 2.74 earned runs per nine. His 8.1% walk rate was close to average while his 29% strikeout rate was quite strong. He had a leverage role with the Snakes before the swap, earning ten saves and eight holds. Teams will surely be interested but his rehab and recovery will determine if he can get back to that level in the future.
There’s also an update on Brandon Woodruff in the tracker. It says that he would not have been on the World Series roster if the Brewers had qualified but he expects to be healed in time to participate in spring training and be ready for the start of the 2026 campaign.
Woodruff is one of the more interesting free agents this winter. His deal has a mutual option but it’s been more than a decade since one of those has been exercised by both sides. They are mostly an accounting measure to kick some of the payments into the future.
The righty’s track record is excellent but the health is the question. He missed all of 2024 due to shoulder surgery. He came off the IL in July and shoved for 12 starts before going back on the IL in September due to a lat strain. In those 12 starts, he logged 64 2/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate. His excellent numbers will surely be enticing to teams but he’s turning 33 in February and hasn’t been healthy for an extended stretch since 2022.
Even with the age and injury concerns, he should still find lots of interest if he is on track to be healthy again next year. A few years ago, Justin Verlander got a two-year, $50MM guarantee going into his age-39 season after missing the entire 2021 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery. Carlos Rodón got a two-year, $44MM guarantee from the Giants when he had some questions about his ability to stay healthy, though he was far younger. Shane Bieber just got a two-year, $26MM deal from the Guardians even though he wasn’t expected back until midseason. In all of those deals, there was an opt-out after the first season.
Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images
