Photo: Doug Gray
So, the Cincinnati Reds are at least thinking about a high-profile reliever as a signing, as they’ve been linked to free agent Devin Williams. Do I think this is a good idea? No. I do not.
I think it is a terrible, terrible, terrible idea.
Relievers are wildly unpredictable. WILDLY. There are about 17 different ways to try an measure them, but let’s just do something quick and dirty. Let’s look at guys who had at least 40.0 IP as a reliever in 2025. Of those guys, let’s look at the 10 best when it comes to ERA.
Aroldis Chapman, 1.17 – This is the first time his ERA has been under 3.00 since 2019. He’s been a middling relief pitcher since then except for 2025.Cole Winn, 1.51 – 25, and still hasn’t had a full season in the bigs. In 2024 he had a 7.79 ERA in 17.1 innings.Edwin Diaz, 1.63 – He has been one of the most consistent every-other-year things I’ve ever seen. Seems to switch between great and fine every other year.Abner Uribe, 1.67 – Hurt most of 2024. 6.91 ERA when he did pitch.Andres Munoz, 1.73 – Okay, he has actually been consistently excellent.Randy Rodriguez, 1.78 – 4.30 ERA in 2024. Only two years in the majors.Braydon Fisher, 1.85 (as a reliever, he had one bad start) – First year in MLB. He was bad (5.03 ERA) in the minors last year.Jason Adam, 1.93 – Our second member of the “good for a long time” club.Matt Svanson, 1.94 – 26-year-old rookie.Drew Pomeranz, 1.94 (as a reliever) – Had not pitched in MLB since 2021 because of injuries.
So we’ve got a 20% hit rate on guys who have been able to maintain a standard-ish level of performance for more than two years.
Here are the top-10 hitters by wRC+ for a quick comparison:
Aaron JudgeShohei OhtaniGeorge SpringerCal RaleighJuan SotoKyle SchwarberKetel MartePete AlonsoMichael BuschFreddie Freeman
Busch and Raleigh were at least a little surprising this year. The other names are used to being on this list.
The Reds have two weaknesses: Offense and relief pitching. They have a self-imposed spending limit.
Hitters are substantially more predictable than relievers.
Spending on relievers is dumb if you have limited funds.
The End.
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