To say that it’s been a poor start to the season for Jeimer Candelario would be an understatement. The infielder has nine hits in 21 games. He’s hitting .118, has a .207 on-base percentage, and he’s slugging .224. Among qualified hitters he’s the worst in baseball with a 17 wRC+.
There are a lot of red flags in the underlying data, too. His strikeout rate is higher than it’s ever been, and by a lot. His 31% strikeout rate is up from 24.6% last season – which was the highest it’s been since 2019. The power output is down significantly, too. His isolated power (SLG-AVG) sits at .105 currently. It’s never been remotely close to that low before and was at .204 last year and .220 the year before that. His previous low was .145 back in 2022.
His average exit velocity is well below the league average. As is just about every other batted-ball metric you’re going to find. His bat speed is at 69.4 MPH. That’s actually higher than last year’s 68.4 MPH, but it’s not been all that helpful so far.
There are two things in his offensive profile that may suggest he could get things going in the right direction – at least a little bit. Candelario’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is currently .143. Only two other players among the 167 qualified hitters this season have a lower BABIP than that. The league average BABIP this season is .285. While hitters do tend to have more control over their BABIP output than pitchers do, a .143 mark being a “skill level” would suggest that Candelario is likely equivalent to a high school hitter facing big league pitching and that just doesn’t seem like it’s the case. He’s been unlucky. That isn’t to say he hasn’t also been bad – he has. But he’s also been unlucky and when the two get coupled together you get a 17 wRC+.
The other thing that could be helpful is that he’s walking often. His current 10.5% walk rate is nearly double the rate he had last year, and it’s in line with the best walk rate he’s ever had in a full season.
If he continues to walk often and his BABIP rebounds some, it could get him moving in the right direction. To turn into a league average hitter, he’s going to need more than just those two things, though. Cutting back on the strikeouts and finding more power will also have to happen.
If Candelario struggling to hit were just a 4-week blip on the radar to start the year there could be more time to preach patience. But it’s been a lot longer than that.
On June 21st of 2024 he hit two home runs against the Boston Red Sox. He finished that day with a .255/.309/.502 triple-slash line. That’s not great, but it certainly could fall into the “good” category. Slugging heavy, but good. In the 45 games he played that followed that day he hit .182/.233/.318. He still wasn’t walking, his strikeout rate started to climb, his power disappeared, and his average plummeted.
Jeimer Candelario’s 3-week heater ended that day. From June 1st through the 21st he hit .347/.351/.736 with 12 extra-base hits. If we remove that three week stretch from his time with the Cincinnati Reds, he’s hit .186/.254/.341 in his other 476 plate appearances. That’s a .595 OPS for anyone trying to do the math at home but has a headache. If he were a gold glove caliber shortstop it would be a problem to run him out there every day. But he’s a corner infielder/designated hitter who can’t hit. Or at least hasn’t shown he can hit for over a year now, outside of one 3-week stretch last summer.
Cincinnati still owes him over $30,000,000 between this season, next season, and the $3,000,000 buyout for the 2027 season. That’s a lot of money for them to eat, but it’s a sunk cost and they have to pay it unless he decides to retire. So the question becomes how much longer can you run him out there every day, or even keep him on the roster at all, if he doesn’t turn things around in a big way, and quickly? Whether we all agree with the offseason roster moves or not, this organization didn’t go out and bring in the players they did and Terry Francona to not try and compete. And it’s real difficult to compete with a corner infielder/designated hitter who can’t hit.
