Tyler Glasnow looks to continue dominant starting pitching as the NLCS heads to Los Angeles – Dodgers Digest

Today the Dodgers will open the first of three possible games in Los Angeles against the Brewers after a dominant performance in Milwaukee, taking the first two games of the NL Championship Series. Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were absolutely incredible, with the former facing the minimum through eight innings, and Yamamoto throwing a one-run complete game. It’ll be nearly impossible for Glasnow to top either of those outings, but he’s been in great form himself and would be the ace on nearly every staff in baseball. He’ll be looking to maintain his scoreless postseason against a Brewers’ lineup that faced him twice in the regular season. Milwaukee will once again counter with the left-handed Aaron Ashby to open the game, with both Jacob Misiorowski and Jose Quintana likely available behind him depending on how the game unfolds. The Dodgers could all but put this series away with a win today, while the Brewers need to treat this as a Game 7, as there’s essentially no coming back from a 3-0 hole.

3:08 PM

Los Angeles

RF
Chourio
DH
Ohtani (L)

2B
Turang (L)
SS
Betts

C
Contreras
C
Smith

DH
Yelich (L)
1B
Freeman (L)

1B
Vaughn
2B
Edman (S)

CF
Frelick (L)
RF
T. Hernández

3B
Durbin
3B
Muncy (L)

LF
Bauers (L)
LF
K. Hernández

SS
Ortiz
CF
Pages

P
Ashby (L)
P
Glasnow (R)

Once again, both teams will run out a similar lineup as the first two games. A few guys have had a great series so far, one being Kiké Hernández who has four hits and a walk in eight plate appearances. Max Muncy added the solo homer off of Freddy Peralta in Game 2, but has also walked three times. Freddie Freeman has three hits, all for extra-bases, while Tommy Edman, Teoscar Hernández, and Will Smith all have multiple hits. Andy Pages and Shohei Ohtani both have one hit, while Mookie Betts is the only player hitless thus far.

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Tyler Glasnow has now thrown 10.2 consecutive scoreless innings dating back to his final three inning start of the regular season against the Seattle Mariners. He pitched twice in the NLDS, once in a relief appearance of 1.2 innings in Game 1, and then came through with a huge start in Game 4 that put the Dodgers in a spot to win that game. By Win Probability Added (WPA), he was the third most valuable player for the Dodgers in the NLDS behind just Roki Sasaki and Alex Vesia.

Most notably his last time out, his fastball averaged just under 97 mph, after averaging 95.7 mph on it this season. The increased velocity, movement, and spin helped him generate 16 whiffs in just 38 swings, including seven on the fastball. He faced the Brewers twice in back-to-back starts in July, his first two since returning from the IL, and fared well both times. He allowed one earned run over eleven total innings on six hits and eleven strikeouts. They also walked four times against him, something to keep an eye on as the Brewers are the most patient (and borderline passive) offense in the sport.

Glasnow has the lowest swing-rate against him in all of baseball among pitchers with at least 90 IP this year at 42.1%. When they do expand the zone, the only pitchers with a higher whiff-rate on chases are Logan Gilbert and Spencer Strider, a couple of nice names to be grouped with. Yamamoto allowed the fewest hits per nine innings in baseball at 5.9, due to the lowest batting average allowed at .182. If you moved the innings requirement down to just 90 so that Glasnow would qualify, his .175 batting average allowed and 5.6 hits per nine innings would be the top marks in the sport.

If his stuff is sharp like it was last time out and he’s filling the zone, he should be set to have another great outing. Limiting Milwaukee’s ability to draw walks is key, as they’ve struggled to hit thus far against both Blake Snell and Yamamoto.

Ashby has appeared in six of Milwaukee’s seven games this postseason, and they’ll be trusting him to get through the top of the order once again, after being successful at getting the big bats out in both Games 1 and 2. It’s possible and maybe even likely that the Dodgers see Quintana today, who had a solid year with the Brewers, posting a 3.96 ERA over 131.2 innings. The Dodgers faced him in the NLCS last year while he was on the Mets, and he went just 3.1 innings while allowing five earned runs on five hits and four walks. He relies on chase outside of the zone, and the Dodgers seem able to lock in and remain disciplined against those types.

It’s also possible that the Brewers throw their rookie flamethrower, Misiorowski for bulk innings, like how he’s been used in both his postseason appearances thus far. He sits at or above 100 mph on his fastball, and allowed just one run over seven innings across two appearances in the NLDS against the Cubs. He dominated the Dodgers when he saw them back in July for his fifth career start, going six innings while allowing just one run on four hits and one walk, with 12 strikeouts.

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Pretty neat.

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First pitch is at 3:08 PT on TBS and HBO Max.