Kristian Campbell was one of the most exciting players in the sport at this time a year ago. Baseball America had ranked him the #4 prospect in MLB on the heels of a .330/.439/.558 showing in the minors. Campbell was generally viewed alongside or even slightly above Marcelo Mayer as the Red Sox’s second-best prospect behind Roman Anthony. The organization seemed to share that assessment, as they built their trade package for Garrett Crochet around Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery rather than including anyone in their top three.
Campbell broke camp despite a mediocre Spring Training performance. He started at second base on Opening Day and got out to a roaring start, hitting .301/.407/.495 through the end of April. Boston quickly locked him up on an eight-year extension that guaranteed $60MM and extended their club control window by as many as four seasons.
Nine months later, it’s not clear if he has a path to playing time in the short term. Campbell’s bat cratered after the scorching start. He hit .159/.243/.222 over 140 plate appearances between the start of May and the middle of June. The Sox optioned him to Triple-A on June 20 and kept him in the minors for the rest of the season.
Campbell posted good numbers in the minors, at least on the surface. He hit .273/.382/.417 across 319 Triple-A plate appearances. It certainly wasn’t on par with his breakout 2024 season, but that’s above-average production at age 23. Yet it came with an elevated 26.3% strikeout rate that was more than six points higher than his mark from the previous season. Campbell also averaged a paltry 84 MPH off the bat with a 30% hard contact rate, and he put more than half his batted balls on the ground. He took a lot of walks and the results were good overall, yet the batted ball data wasn’t all that encouraging.
The track record is strong enough that Campbell remains a promising offensive player, albeit with less confidence that he’ll be an impact bat than they probably had a year ago. The biggest concern is on the other side of the ball.
Campbell’s second base defense was a disaster. Defensive Runs Saved graded him 16 runs below average in 471 2/3 innings. Only Luis García Jr. had a worse DRS mark at the position, and that came in twice as many innings. Campbell was tied for third from the bottom in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric (again behind players who got more time at the position). He committed seven errors and had a .968 fielding percentage that was last among the 38 second basemen to play 400+ innings.
It was bad enough that it seems the Red Sox have essentially given up on Campbell as a viable second baseman. He only started 11 games there in the minors, none of which came after August 8. Campbell closed the season bouncing between left field, center field and first base.
The Red Sox have a question at second base but don’t appear to be seriously considering Campbell there. They’re reportedly focused on defense as they look outside the organization for help at the keystone. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged last week that the Sox are “going to give (Campbell) a look in the outfield” (link via Christopher Smith of MassLive). David Hamilton, Romy Gonzalez and Nick Sogard lead an uninspiring internal group of second base options. They’ve traded for Willson Contreras and still have Triston Casas — who is ironically in a somewhat similar spot as Campbell — ahead of him on the first base depth chart.
Campbell is a good enough athlete that it’s not out of the question that he’ll be a solid outfielder. The Red Sox don’t have many at-bats to offer him there, though. They’re already loaded across the outfield with Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu and Anthony. Breslow has consistently downplayed their desire to trade Duran or Abreu. That seems less likely now that they’ve addressed the rotation in other ways. They’re not going to move an established above-average regular merely to open playing time for Campbell.
The Sox did lose lefty masher Rob Refsnyder in free agency, but they’re planning to give Abreu more at-bats against southpaws. Relegating the righty-hitting Campbell to a short side platoon role isn’t ideal for his development. Breslow pointed to 29-year-old Nate Eaton as a possibility to pick up some of the at-bats that Refsnyder had taken.
It leaves Campbell without a clear role as Spring Training approaches. If the Red Sox don’t feel he’s a viable infielder, he’s not going to have much utility off the bench. He still has two minor league options and could go back to Triple-A. That’s the likeliest outcome to begin the season and would at least give him continued work in the outfield. They can bide their time that way, but it’s clearly not an ideal setup for a player who very recently looked like a franchise player.
There hasn’t been anything to suggest the Red Sox are considering trade possibilities this offseason. Although Campbell’s extension doesn’t preclude them from trading him, it’d be essentially without precedent for a team to sell low on a top prospect who is one season into an eight-year deal. The Sox could probably shed the entire contract if that were their only goal, but they’d need to accept pennies on the dollar in terms of the trade return.
Maybe the situation will sort itself out early in the season. An outfield injury or two could get Campbell into the lineup. No one is writing off his career before he turns 24. It’s nevertheless rare for opportunities to dry up as quickly as they have for a player who was held in this regard as a prospect. If Campbell spends the first half of the season in the minors and the Sox are contending, he may become a more realistic trade candidate around the deadline.
Image courtesy of John Jones, Imagn Images.
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