Well color me shocked. The Cincinnati Reds actually did a thing. Like, a real thing. They got Eugenio Suarez back and there is some joy in Mudville. When I saw the news, I was the first in my family, and went something like this:
Me: Oh my god! Oh my god!
My Wife (worried tone): What!?!?!
Me: Oh my god!
My Wife: WHAT!?!?!?!
Me: The Reds signed Geno!
My Wife (joyous): The Reds signed Geno!?!?!
Me: The Reds signed Geno!
Kid Downstairs: The Reds signed GENO ?!?!?
Kid Upstairs: The Reds signed GENO !?!?!?
Me: The Reds signed Geno!
And then we all kind of danced around a little. I assure you, it was heartwarming.
And now I get to write a fun article about how the Reds got better, and boy, that’s just a pleasure. So here we go.
First off: I don’t really care about the end of the bench in this piece. I think, for instance, that if Matt McLain or Elly De La Cruz were to get hurt, then prospect Edwin Arroyo (unless he is suddenly terrible) gets called up to play. Guys 12 and 13 on the bench are there to rest starters, not get everyday reps unless there is a true catastrophe.
When we’re looking at lineup building, there are four factors, really, that matter: Defense, hitting right-handed pitcher, hitting left-handed pitching, and (annoyingly) money. In this case, I think we can mostly dispense with the money issue because no one is truly breaking the bank on this team. So let’s start with the offense. There are 10 guys on the team right now who have a reasonable case for significant playing time. Let’s just look at the metaphorical back of their baseball cards and see what they’ve done in terms of wRC+ for their careers.
Sal Stewart 124 (but also lol at the sample size)Eugenio Suarez 113Elly De La Cruz 107TJ Friedl 107Tyler Stephenson 105Spencer Steer 103JJ Bleday 99Matt McLain 98Noelvi Marte 86Ke’Bryan Hayes 84
Now, I don’t think Marte is that bad. I think he’ll be a tick or two above average as a hitter. He’s dragged down by the half-season after his suspension. I also think Stewart could keep pace with his cup of coffee, but we shouldn’t bet on it. In any case, if I’m right about Marte, you can have a lineup with no substantively below average hitters in terms of their career numbers and you come away with something that looks like this:
Friedl, CFStewart, DH/1B/3BDe La Cruz, SSSuarez, 3B/DH/1BSteer, 1B/DHStephenson, CMarte, RFBleday, LFMcLain, 2B
Now, is that the best defensive lineup? No, it is not. That would be something like this:
Friedl, CFBleday, LFDe La Cruz, SSSuarez, DH/1BStewart or Steer 1B/DHStephenson, CMarte, RFMcLain, 2BHayes, 3B
I know everyone is in love with Steer at 1B. I tend to think Stewart could likely be just as good. I also think Steer vs Bleday in the outfield is maybe closer to a defensive wash than we might think at what might be the least essential defensive spot on the field. But anyway…
What about platoon splits? Here, I only care about career splits (because single-season splits can be very noisy) and I only care if one of our guys gets significantly better or worse. There are four players who stand out and it’s all in terms of how they hit against lefties.
De La Cruz – 64 wRC+ vs LHPHayes – 107 vs LHPBleday – 84 vs LHPMarte – 64 vs LHP
Elly De La Cruz is playing every day period. So let’s hope he continues to be himself and get better and work hard and all those great things.
For his career, at least, Hayes pretty clearly belongs in the lineup against lefties, but the trade might hurt his playing time against righties. Stewart is, by all accounts, capable at third. And while Suarez had a down year in the field last year, he’s been very good defensively throughout his career. So the Reds do have options there.
Marte is going to get a chance to play every day.
Bleday is probably going to lose playing time because of the signing and he probably should (aside: if you haven’t looked at Bleday’s batted ball profile, you should, he pops up a TON. I mean, like I did a double take one it. He has crazy flyball tendencies and while Great American Ball Park will help with that, all the flyballs put a hard cap on what he can do offensively. He’s always gonna be a low BABIP guy unless a major change occurs).
So that said, here’s my guess as to the lineups versus lefties and righties:
Against right-handed pitching
Friedl, CFStewart, 3B (Hayes as defensive replacement)De La Cruz, SSSuarez, DHSteer, 1BStephenson, CMarte, RFBleday, LFMcLain, 2B
Against left-handed pitching
Friedl, CFStewart, 1BDe La Cruz, SSSuarez, DHSteer, LFStephenson, CMarte, RFMcLain, 2BHayes, 3B
The Reds will probably blow this all up and make me unhappy in some fashion, but as long as they are not married to Hayes playing every inning at third and Steer playing every inning at first, I am pretty pleased with the options. This allows for good workarounds if anyone gets hurt (and someone will) while giving you a lineup teams can’t ignore should everyone (or most everyone) be remotely healthy.
When you add this to a very, very good pitching staff, I find myself bullish on the Reds for the first time in some time. It’s nice to be excited. And I will close with a prediction here and people can hold me to it later. I predict that Stewart will hit as well as last year. I predict that De La Cruz, McLain, and Marte will all hit better than their career wRC+ numbers by at least 10 points. If that happens, this will be a very good team. Now, let’s get to baseball season.
