Florida surpassed UConn for the fourth No. 1 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology on Saturday after the Gators won 84-77 at Kentucky and the Huskies fell at Marquette.
While the race remains tight, our model’s side-by-side scrubbing process resulted in Florida earning a slight edge over UConn, despite the fact that the Huskies beat the Gators 77-73 at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 9.
Florida is now 12-5 in Quad 1 and unbeaten across Quad 3 and Quad 4. UConn is 7-2 in Quad 1 and now has its first Quad 2 defeat following a 68-62 loss to a Marquette team that will enter the Big East Tournament at 12-19 (7-13 Big East). The Huskies also suffered a Quad 3 home loss to Creighton on Feb. 18.
UConn (27-4, 17-3) entered the day at No. 4 in Wins Above Bubble, which is a vital resume metric used by the selection committee. Florida was No. 5 with a large amount of “WAB” ground to cover in order to overtake the Huskies.
Saturday’s results closed that gap to a dead heat, and the Gators will likely have more room for upward mobility during the SEC Tournament than the Huskies will in the Big East Tournament. But even if the committee were meeting today and deciding who to place on the No. 1 seed line, the Gators would have a strong case.
Where Florida has the edge
Where Florida truly owns separation on UConn in a side-by-side comparison is in predictive metrics. The Gators are No. 4 in KenPom.com, ranking only behind well-established No. 1 seeds Duke, Michigan and Arizona. In the trio of predictive metrics used by the committee, the Gators are clearly No. 4 while UConn lags several spots behind.
The Huskies landed at No. 11 in KenPom following their loss to the Golden Eagles and will likely average out around 10th in the trio of predictive metrics used by the committee come Sunday morning.
While results-based metrics — such as WAB — carry more weight, Florida’s marked edge in predictive metrics is analytics-backed evidence that confirms what has become obvious: Florida is operating at a level that makes it deserving of a No. 1 seed.
The Gators (25-6, 16-2 SEC) have won 11 straight games and had already secured the SEC’s outright title before Saturday’s win at Kentucky. UConn’s loss means that St. John’s is the outright Big East champion.
That could matter come Selection Sunday. If both Florida and UConn win their conference tournaments, the Gators would be a double-champion while the Huskes cannot reach that plateau.
It was reiterated to media during last month’s mock selection exercise with NCAA officials and selection committee members that deference can be given — and often is — to teams that win both their conference’s regular season and tournament titles.
The 2025 precedent
Despite the fact that UConn has fewer losses than the Gators and a head-to-head victory, precedents solidified by the committee last year work in Florida’s favor.
Auburn earned the No. 1 overall seed for the 2025 NCAA Tournament over fellow No. 1 seeds Florida and Duke, despite the fact that the Tigers had more losses than both and a head-to-head loss against both.
Head-to-head results and loss volume only go so far in a sport where 360+ teams log 30+ games against vastly different schedules before Selection Sunday. Auburn had more Quad 1 victories than its competitors for the No. 1 overall seed last year, which was reflected in its top-ranked WAB score.
If Florida and UConn both win out and win their conference tournaments, the Gators will likely rank ahead of the Huskies in WAB and will certainly have more Quad 1 victories in addition to the aforementioned edge in predictive analytics.
