Few would have seen it coming last season when Robert Morris busted down the door to the NCAA Tournament just one year after finishing 10-22. The Colonials turned their fortunes in a hurry, as they won the Horizon League regular season and tournament titles, earning a No. 15 seed in the Big Dance.
In their first March Madness appearance since 2015, Robert Morris pushed No. 2 seed Alabama late into the second half before the Crimson Tide escaped with a stressful victory. Though it didn’t win a game in the tournament, Robert Morris was absolutely an example of a mid-major program that popped.
As the 2025-26 season creeps closer, we are on the hunt for mid-major teams that could do the same this season. To fit the bill of a mid-major team that “pops,” you don’t necessarily have to increase your win total by 16. But we are searching for teams from outside the high-major realm with juice to be dangerous and/or significantly better than in recent years.
Projecting top 25 college basketball programs of next 25 years: Teams set for most long-term success
Kyle Boone
As with most of our Dribble Handoffs, our writers are free to massage the criteria however they see fit. But there will certainly be bonus points awarded if anyone picks a mid-major team that proceeds to pull a turnaround like what Robert Morris did last season.
Here are our picks for the mid-major teams that will pop in 2025-26.
Boise State has been consistently good under Leon Rice — evidence being three trips to the NCAA Tournament in the past four seasons and three top-two finishes in the Mountain West Conference in the past four seasons. So I’m hesitant to place the mid-major label on the Broncos.
But Boise State isn’t in a power-conference. And Boise State has never actually won a game in the NCAA Tournament. So, by most people’s definition, the mid-major label fits. And, if so, then the Broncos, on paper, should be one of the best mid-majors in college basketball this upcoming season. They return three of the top five scorers from last season’s team that won 26 games and added UCLA transfer Dylan Andrews and Georgetown transfer Drew Fielder. That’s a solid core that should have the Broncos among the favorites in the MWC — and possibly the favorite. — Gary Parrish
It’s never been more difficult to forecast which teams from single-bid leagues will make a pop. That in mind, I’ll go with a program that hired a coach who has been at the school previously and is coming off a national championship. Kevin Hovde was an assistant the past few years under Todd Golden at Florida.
Years ago, he was on staff under Kyle Smith at Columbia. Now he’s the coach of the Lions, a team that’s been under .500 every season since Smith left in 2016. But thanks to returning a bulk of its roster and with the infusion of some size in the portal, I’ll say Columbia immediately shifts in Year 1 under Hovde. Mark me down for 18-plus wins and a trip to the Ivy League title game. — Matt Norlander
George Washington is poised to build on a 21-win season and produce its best campaign in at least a decade under fourth-year coach Chris Caputo. The longtime assistant under Jim Larranaga at George Mason and Miami has four players back who started at least 15 games last season and a head-turning transfer class. The portal haul includes four players who averaged double-figures at other mid-major schools last season and former Northwestern big Luke Hunger, who played in 56 games with 10 starts for the Wildcats over the past two seasons.
This combination of returning production and transfer talent actually puts GW on par with some lower-tier high-major programs in terms of roster outlook. It’s a sign that the Revolutionaries, who are not bogged down by the financial requirements of a football roster, are serious about getting good at basketball again. Other teams in the Atlantic 10 are serious about hoops and well-equipped to succeed in this era, too. But GW fits the bill of a team that can “pop” after a rough past decade. The Revolutionaries made three straight NCAA Tournaments from 2005-07 and five in a seven-season span between 1993 and 1999. The program’s 2025-26 squad is capable of bringing the good times back to the nation’s capital. — David Cobb
San Diego State has been the model of consistency for mid-majors over the last five years. The Aztecs have reached the NCAA Tournament in each of the previous five years — and would’ve likely been in the mix for a No. 1 seed in 2020 when the NCAA Tournament was canceled due to COVID-19. Over that span, SDSU has reached the Sweet 16 twice and appeared in the national title game in 2023.
I love the roster SDSU is bringing back, which is led by two potential first-round picks: Miles Byrd and Magoon Gwath. The outlook of SDSU’s season could’ve been drastically different had either of them departed. Byrd was deep into the NBA Draft process, and Gwath entered the transfer portal before withdrawing and returning to school. Brian Dutcher is a fantastic coach who gets the most out of his players. After an embarrassing blowout loss to North Carolina in the First Four, look for SDSU to bounce back in a big way during the 2025-26 campaign. Nonconference games against Michigan (Nov. 24) and Arizona (Dec. 20) are ones to keep an eye on. — Cameron Salerno
Northern Iowa is quietly slated to return over 72% of its minutes from a squad (per Torvik) that finished with a 14-6 record in the Valley. While Illinois State has earned some well-deserved buzz for retaining its two best players, Northern Iowa also did yeoman’s work keeping the portal vultures away from three veteran starters: point guard Trey Campbell, shooting guard Max Weisbrod and forward Ben Schwieger. That trio of seniors provides a strong nucleus, but Ben Jacobson was also able to hold onto three more rotation players, including Leon Bond III. That’s a sneaky-big deal. When healthy, Bond can be a two-way terror and one of the best players in the Missouri Valley. Bond and Campbell give UNI a 1-2 punch that can go band-for-band with anybody in this league.
If this new-look frontcourt can settle in, Northern Iowa can absolutely dance for the first time since 2016. You already know what can happen when Jacobsen is prowling the sidelines in March Madness. High-majors beware. — Isaac Trotter
