Duke vs. Florida State prediction, pick, odds, spread, where to watch live

No. 6 Duke is 12-1 with wins over NCAA Tournament teams like Kansas, Arkansas, Florida and Michigan State, and yet it enters 2026 with questions aplenty after a second-half collapse to Texas Tech, followed up by Wednesday’s sweaty, six-point win over Georgia Tech as a gargantuan 27.5-point favorite.

Are we making a mountain out of a molehill? Perhaps, but even Jon Scheyer seems to be searching for the right combinations. Duke shifted the starting lineup for the third time against Georgia Tech, inserting freshman point guard Cayden Boozer into the fray and diverting wing Nik Khamenia to the second unit.

We’ll learn about the mental fortitude of this Duke team because even though a date with ACC frontrunner Louisville looms on Tuesday, it has to get past 7-7 Florida State before it can get started on the Cardinals’ scout. First-year ‘Noles coach Luke Loucks is 0-5 against high-major teams, but if Florida State can push Florida, it can get up for Duke.

Let’s dive into the ins and outs of this ACC matchup.

Duke vs. Florida State: Need to know

High-variance tilt: Florida State zooms up and down the floor at a breakneck pace and tries to shoot as many 3-pointers as possible. FSU’s offense has the fifth-fastest average possession length, and 54% of its shots come from downtown. Loucks doesn’t have Alabama’s star power yet, but he is using Nate Oats’ game plan on offense. Shooting this many 3s opens up the door for some wild outcomes … good and bad. So far for Florida State, it’s been mostly bad. They shot just 9-for-41 (22%) from downtown against Texas A&M and got smoked by 36 against an Aggies club that is in a similar tier from a talent perspective. We have yet to see FSU get it rolling from downtown against a high-major team. Duke surely doesn’t want to become the first team that lets FSU’s barrage of snipers get hot, or a dogfight could emerge.

Will FSU keep Duke from hanging on rims? North Carolina threw down 12 dunks against Florida State on Tuesday. That was the most UNC had in a single game since 2011. Now, FSU has to face off against Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba? That’s no fun. There are easy buckets to be had in the paint against this Florida State defense that is vulnerable when it cannot generate takeaways.

Will Duke’s leaky pick-and-roll defense get shored up? Texas Tech’s Christian Anderson took a blowtorch to Duke’s pick-and-roll defense, and Scheyer had to pivot to a zone defense in the second half to find some answers after Georgia Tech’s ball-handlers were creating far too many advantages. Duke will have its hands full with FSU point guard Robert McCray V, who ranks sixth in the country in assists (7.1). Caleb Foster will get the first turn, but Duke’s switch-heavy defense means anyone on the floor better be ready to sit down and try to guard McCray. 

Where to watch Duke vs. Florida State live

Date: Saturday, Jan. 3 | Time: 3:45 p.m. ETLocation: Tucker Arena — Tallahassee, FloridaTV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports AppStreaming on Paramount+ Premium    

Duke vs. Florida State prediction, picks

Making a billion 3-pointers (in reality, like 22 treys) feels like Florida State’s only hope to spring this upset. Everything else screams Duke in this one. FSU is a poor defensive-rebounding team. Georgia, Florida and UNC all corralled 15+ offensive rebounds. Ngongba, Cameron Boozer and Maliq Brown should be licking their chops to go to war on the glass. Plus, the pivot to playing Cayden Boozer with Caleb Foster in a two-point guard look should pay dividends in this one. Florida State will pressure the basketball relentlessly. Having two point guards who can break that first wave of pressure should unlock a ton of advantages in this one.

I also do not think FSU has enough capable ball-handlers outside of McCray to consistently break down this Duke defense. Duke has been so good at grinding teams to a halt with its switches. If that happens, Florida State has to hope McCray goes nuclear because there’s not a ton of other true switch-beaters on this FSU roster. If it attacks the paint, does its thing on the glass, blankets the 3-point stripe, controls the tempo and moves the ball without panicking, Duke can run away with this one. Pick: Duke -15

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