Right now, there are only 21 high school prospects ranked in 247Sports’ top 100 who have committed to college programs. That is an unusually low number at this point in the calendar. And through the summer and now early fall, there is still a lack of clarity on many of the top recruitments. With players now already deep into their official schedule, recruitments will become clearer, as more visits and meetings happen, more players will come off the board.
So why has the recruitment landscape of the 2026 class been so slow to develop? Why is this particular class so strange? How are college staffs approaching the 2026 class compared to previous cycles?
Missouri has commitments from No. 3-ranked Jason Crowe Jr. and No. 23-ranked Toni Bryant. No. 12 JJ Andrews pledged to Arkansas way back on May 15.
Those are the only three prospects ranked in the top 25 who have made a decision. And don’t expect too many of the top prospects in the 2026 class to come off the board in the near future as they continue to take their time with official visits this fall
“I haven’t talked to one kid who is close to making a decision,” a Power Five assistant told 247Sports back in June. “We’re recruiting about 10 kids, and none of them are close.”
College basketball commitments plummet amid big changes in recruiting: ‘Nobody knows what to do right now’
Matt Norlander
So why is the 2026 class moving so slowly?
It comes down to three big reasons: the aggressive evolution of the transfer portal in college basketball, the lack of talent and depth in the 2026 class, and money, more specifically, the revenue share associated with the passing of the House settlement.
The evaluation timeline has changed
There weren’t many summer commitments from the 2026 class because the timeline for evaluations was pushed back.
The 30-day transfer portal window for college basketball closed on April 22, but that didn’t mean commitments or roster building stopped. Transfers committed throughout April, May, and June. While a lot of college basketball rosters were set, there was still some uncertainty on how teams and lineups would look when October rolled around.
And International commitments leaked into the summer.
In short, programs were focused on getting their rosters set for next season, meaning there was less attention on the evaluation of the rising high school senior class compared to previous cycles.
“There was an accelerated course last year with guys popping, but for some reason these guys are moving a little slower,” one source explained. “The money piece that is involved, now you have to take your time and evaluate the situation more.”
It was clear in the spring that college coaches were less familiar and knowledgeable about high school kids than ever before, which inherently impacted the timetable of these recruitments. Programs just didn’t have their boards set in the spring and early summer.
“We hadn’t paid attention to them because we were worried about the portal,” one high major assistant told 247Sports.
Prioritizing the transfer portal
The transfer portal has become the main focus for college coaches in the spring. Examination of the transfer portal starts while the season is still happening and then ramps up once the regular season ends and March begins. It’s simple. College programs are increasingly becoming more inclined to have a two-year college veteran on their roster than a 17 or 18-year-old freshman. So the value of transfers has gone up, and the value of high school recruiting has gone down. Miss on a high school recruit — you could still land that same player as a transfer two years later and get him as a more mature, more skilled, more physically developed player.
The evaluation and the recruitment of high school players has been moved back
“People have just started recruiting high school kids after the portal,” one assistant told CBS Sports this summer. “I think all people are behind because they didn’t go out and see high school kids during the year.”
There is also the growing trend of recruiting international prospects who continued to commit to college programs in June to play in the 2025-26 season.
High school recruiting is gradually taking more of a backseat in how college programs strategize their roster construction. Transfers have become a priority, while international recruiting is becoming more and more popular.
Look at North Carolina — it landed Luka Bogavac, who will be 22 years old before he plays his first game in Chapel Hill. He’s been playing professional basketball in Europe since 2021. That type of developed and experienced player is of more value than a high school freshman. It’s becoming more about instant impact because a freshman who doesn’t play much for premium dollars is also more likely to transfer.
Lack of talent In 2026
The talent in the 2026 class is also a factor. It is widely considered a far less talented class when compared to 2024 and 2025.
“The 2026 class has some highly talented long-term prospects and some prospects who are very impactful players right now. They don’t have many who check both boxes consistently and reliably right now,” 247Sports Director of Scouting Adam Finkelstein wrote in July.
“Prospects like Christian Collins, Tahj Ariza, Cameron Williams, and even Tyran Stokes — have tools to intrigue NBA decision makers, even if they’re not prepared to drive winning right away as college freshmen. Collins is the glaring example. He’s the No. 4 player in the 2026 class, but there was a game at the Peach Jam where he only scored two points. His ranking is less a reflection of where his game is right now, and more where we believe it can be in the future.
“Others like Jason Crowe Jr., Jordan Smith, and Caleb Holt probably can impact winning right away, but still have major questions about how they could ultimately translate to the highest levels in a couple of years. Crowe is a prolific scorer but lacks ideal size, length, and athleticism. Smith and Holt have all those physical tools, along with ideal intangibles, but need to expand their skill sets.”
With the lack of high-end talent across the top end of the 2026 class, college staffs are pivoting. Why would a college program waste money and resources on recruiting less talented 2026 high school prospects when they can get proven, productive experience from the transfer portal and a player who can make an impact from day one?
This is forcing college staffs to be slower with the high school evaluation process and more picky with offers, targets, and eventually commitments.
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The House settlement, revenue sharing and money
The passing of the House settlement threw a major wrench into the world of basketball recruiting and left initial uncertainty with the money aspect of college basketball recruiting.
The House settlement will allow college athletic programs to share as much as $20.5 million of their revenue with players during the upcoming academic year. The money can be spread however an athletic department sees fit, but the general assumption is that the large majority of the money will go to football, anywhere between 75% to 80%, depending on the program and who you talk to.
Most basketball programs are expected to get around 15% of the revenue, according to a CBS Sports source.
Before the House settlement was passed, every team had a good understanding of their roster budget and the marketplace, but with the new revenue share model, the economics have taken a major shift.
“Nobody has a clue how much all these kids are going to get paid, and anybody who says otherwise is lying,” a high major assistant told CBS Sports.
“With the rev share and the transfer portal, people are trying to get a feel for the real value of a freshman right now,” added another.
Many college basketball programs are still figuring out how much money they will have to spend on their roster. When it comes to building out a roster, will most of the money go to transfer portal targets and international prospects? How much will be left for high school recruitments?
Those types of questions are a big reason why the 2026 cycle has moved so slowly. There is uncertainty on how much can be spent and should be spent on freshmen. It also makes the evaluations of high school prospects so critical. If you are going to spend the money on a top prospect, he better hit, or you better have a good sense that he will stick around. There is just more pressure to make sure your budget is well-spent than previously.
“At the same time, the talent has gone down with high school kids, and now you really have to evaluate again,” a source told CBS Sports. “Our June has been full of us just trying to evaluate.”
Unrealistic financial expectations for high school recruiting
With the new limited money a program can legally spend, the financial expectations of top-tier high school recruits aren’t matching reality. That will take time to find its level.
“This past offseason set such an unrealistic expectation,” a source told CBS Sports. “People saved up collective money, and everyone overspent (in 2025) trying to beat the buzzer with the House Settlement. I don’t think that pot will be there (in 2026). You had some really average players that made over $1 million this offseason, and I don’t know how many will get that moving forward.”
There won’t be the same amount of money to spend for the 2026 cycle.
“I don’t think kids realize the House settlement means that these big payments will be harder to come by,” a source told CBS Sports. “You can’t pay a kid $3-4 million. How are you going to fill out a team? They think they can get more money now, but it’s the opposite.”
There will need to be a readjustment in the expectations for payments with the 2026 class.
“I think these kids and parents are trying to get a feel for the climate,” added another source. “They want to get the $1-2 million that they have been hearing, but they won’t get that because of the rev share, and the transfer portal is impacting that a lot as well.”
The new recruiting timeline
Many kids are in the midst of taking visits this fall. They usually coincide with the football season. More and more commitments are beginning to happen and will continue through September and October. The way it is looking right now, commitments will come in a flurry as spots fill up. It will be a more condensed fall commitment season.
Because of the immediate impact, college programs are valuing transfers more and more. Combine that with the economic uncertainty brought on by the House settlement, and you are going to get fewer early decisions. Additionally, there are not many players who have the leverage to wait and decide late.
“I don’t think schools are pushing people as hard because nobody knows what they can pay them,” a source explained. “I think September and October will be really hectic.”
It’s going to take time for these recruitments to play out and for college programs to regain their recruiting strategies moving forward.
However, with this new rev-share model and the expectations of the handcuffed budgets being forced upon college programs, many people are sharing the same sentiment as to how they will remain competitive.
“I think we [the industry] are just going to go back to cheating,” concluded one source. “If you put a cap on what people can spend, they’re going to get ‘creative’.”
