NCAAW: Can Toby Fournier, Duke extinguish the Tar Heels hot streak?

Between the 2014-15 season and the 2021 post-COVID campaign, the rivalry between Duke and UNC appeared utterly fictional in the realm of women’s basketball. Eleven wins and only one loss told a story of Blue Devil dominance over their in-state competitor.

Duke head coach Kara Lawson has brought a boatload of success to Durham, but her role in the rivalry isn’t yet a positive branch of her legacy. Since Lawson took over the Duke program, North Carolina has flipped the script and won six out of the last eight meetings. After an overtime loss in their first meeting this year, Duke is hungry to redeem themselves on Thursday evening when the Blue Devils host the Tar Heels in Cameron Indoor Stadium (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Duke’s troubled waters

Duke dropped back-to-back games for the first time all season after losing to Notre Dame and Louisville.

Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Duke (21-7) is a comfortably good program sitting at a vaguely uncomfortable record. Jarring losses are plaguing top programs on a weekly basis, but seven losses for the Blue Devils is indicative of them being a streaky wildcard, rather than a thunderous contender, come March. Additionally, four of their top seven scorers are underclassman, which usually suggests some inconsistency.

Freshman wing Toby Fournier has brought a fascinating new style to Kara Lawson’s arsenal. They aren’t a very tall roster (only one true rotation player stands above 6-foot-2), but they do nearly all their damage from inside the arc. They’re last in the ACC in 3-point attempts, shooting only 18 per game. Even more impressive is their 3-point defense, which only allows four (!!!) made 3s per game and 14 attempts—both first in the conference.

Fournier herself, despite leading the team in points and blocks per game, has not started a game and plays less than 20 minutes per night, only seventh on the roster. Lawson’s short leash may be easing Fournier into the college hoops environment, but it could also be a testament to her obtrusive freshman flaws. A 0.3 assist to 1.7 turnover ratio is pretty bad, to be blunt.

Finishing strong

North Carolina v Syracuse — UNC has won 12 of their last 13 games going back to early January.

Duke’s aggressive style will be tested by the second-best paint defense in the ACC. Maria Gakdeng and Alyssa Ustby headline a phenomenal UNC (25-4) defense that makes up for a very average UNC offense. The Tar Heels are 25-1 when holding opponents under 75 points, and teams are only scoring 62 points per night against them in conference play. Crossing the 75 point threshold is no easy task in a 40-minute college game. Thus, neither is beating UNC.

The first meeting of the two teams was a testament to team defenses. UNC only shot 32 percent from the field, but held Duke to a ridiculous 24 percent clip. Ustby was the only Tar Heel who scored double figures. Long-standing basketball rhetoric claims that offense struggles in road games, and a trip to the historic Cameron Indoor Stadium on Thursday would normally be a concerning sign for UNC. However, they’re manifesting as absolute road warriors, with zero losses through nine (non-neutral site) away games this season.

Lengthy post anchor Gakdeng was limited by fouls in the January matchup, which halted her role offensively. It’s unlikely that she’ll allow that to happen again. Her scoring is still more inconsistent than fans would like, but her efficiency is as solid as ever. She’s only shot below 50 percent from the field once in her last eight games. Duke’s defensive strategy against Gakdeng will be one of the most interesting facets in the upcoming game. Do they double and force her to pass, or trust their undersized bigs to make life hard on her?

Both teams are separated by only three losses, but UNC is the better team from nearly every angle. Duke’s offensive style plays into the Tar Heels strengths, so they’ll have to either excel above their normal output or find a new route if they want to protect home court. Neither team has a bonafide star, so losses won’t be afforded if a singular player has a rough night. If Duke can punch above their weight, it may be a sign that they could do damage in the ACC Tournament next week. If they fall flat again, UNC will feel even more comfortable riding their hot streak into March.