NCAAW: Without Watkins, can USC reach Final Four over UConn, Bueckers?

Two tickets to women’s college basketball’s biggest stage remain. Which teams will claim them?

It will be decided on Monday, Mar. 31, when No. 2-seed TCU and No. 1-seed Texas followed by No. 2-seed UConn and No. 1-seed USC meet to make the Final Four. The all-Texas Elite Eight showdown between the Horned Frogs and Longhorns tips off at 7 p.m. ET, while the Huskies and Trojans face off for the second-straight Elite Eight at 9 p.m. ET. Both games will be broadcast on ESPN.

Can Hailey Van Lith and TCU continue to make history? Will Texas make their first Final Four since 2003? Will Paige Bueckers keep UConn’s championship quest alive with another epic performance? Can USC’s chemistry and resiliency carry them into the Final Four?

Here’s a look at how Monday’s Elite Eight games could unfold:

No. 2-seed TCU vs. No. 1-seed Texas (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Yes, these two teams are both from Texas. Yes, they both can put a lot of points on the board. But, the similarities between Texas and TCU mostly end there. (Besides the fact that Sedona Prince’s long and winding college career included a stop in Austin, when injuries prevented her from suiting up for the Longhorns during the 2018-19 season.)

The Longhorns’ offense manufactures points. They’re deliberate, relying on scores inside the arc, free throws and second-chance points, all while taking care of the ball and winning the battle of the boards. For the season, Texas ranks second in the nation in 2-point makes, fifth in made free throws, 14th in offense rebounding and 324th in turnovers. Texas minimizes mistakes before counting on Madison Booker to come through in the clutch with crucial jumpers.

The Horned Frogs’ offense chases points. They whip the ball around in search of 3-pointers, which then creates space for drives to the hoop. TCU is eighth nationally in 3-pointers per game, making them at a 38 percent clip that is sixth best in the nation. They’re seventh in the nation in assists per game. But, they’re in the bottom 250 when it comes to free throw attempts and in the bottom 225 on the offensive glass.

TCU might have a higher upside. If Van Lith continues her hot streak as Madison Conner, Agnes Emma-Nnopu, Taylor Bigby and Donovan Hunter splash in 3s, all while Prince owns the boards and protects the paint, the Horned Frogs could put the heat on the Longhorns.

But, as Beckett Harrison emphasized when previewing Texas’ Sweet 16 matchup against a similarly 3-point-happy Tennessee team, the Longhorns have a high floor, with their maintenance of the margins giving them an advantage. And Texas doesn’t garner these marginal advantages due just one player. Booker, Kyla Oldacre and Taylor Jones all earn more than three free throws per game, while Oldacre and Jones combine for the Longhorns’ dominance of the glass with three o-boards per game apiece. Rori Harmon, who often is at the controls of the offense, has 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio that puts her in the top 10 nationally.

That Texas also has the best player in the game would seem to give them a further edge, except that Van Lith might be playing better than—and certainly could outplay—Booker. The grad guard’s magical March, on top of the Horned Frogs’ history-making season and tournament run, suggests that it would not be smart to count them out, despite the Longhorns looking, on paper, like the Lone State State’s better team.

No. 2-seed UConn vs. No. 1-seed USC (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

This was the game everyone wanted. But, this is now how we all wanted it.

As soon as the bracket was released, a prospective Elite Eight rematch between USC and UConn enticed. Last season, the Huskies ousted the Trojans at this stage of the tournament, but earlier this season, the Trojans exacted revenge, winning in Storrs.

Even more than those recent results, USC-UConn III represented another chance to see Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins face off in a superstar showdown. Watkins’ ACL injury, suffered in the second round, robs the sophomore sensation of the opportunity to do something incredible and, in turn, denies us fans the thrill of watching her and Bueckers match each other play for play in a way that makes March basketball special.

Nonetheless, while Watkins’ absence detracts from the dazzle factor, it does not doom the matchup between the Trojans and the Huskies—far from it. For one, this game still offers a superstar showdown: Kiki Iriafen vs. Sarah Strong. The sweet-scoring senior post player with a penchant for raising her game in big moments vs. the precocious freshman post who has the potential to take her team back to the promised land.

Iriafen had a rough night as USC advanced to the Elite Eight, with an experienced Kansas State team forcing her into missed midrange jumpers. Iriafen is at her best when scoring around the basket, something she succeeded in doing in the Trojans’ second-round win over Mississippi State, as well as in their win at Connecticut, when she had a 16-point and 11-rebound double-double. That game, however, also flashed Strong’s bright future. Despite a critical miss from the free throw line, she was the Huskies’ best player in the loss to the Trojans, bettering Iriafen with a 22-point and 13-rebound double-double. USC will need Iriafen to outplay Strong to be in position to advance to the program’s first Final Four since 1986.

And yet, UConn still has the Paige factor. Bueckers, fresh off a 40-point masterpiece in the Sweet 16, will not want Monday to be her last game in a UConn jersey. It can be presumed that she’ll be at her aggressive, attacking and efficient self, making things difficult for the young corps of USC guards who will be deputized to try to slow her down.

Expect Kennedy Smith and Avery Howell to be eager to accept the task. The freshmen both showed out in the Trojans’ Sweet 16 win. Smith had a team-high 19 points, three boards and three steals, while Howell swished four 3s as she scored 18 points, in addition to grabbing eight rebounds and swiping four steals.

And still, neutralizing Strong and stalling Bueckers might not be enough for USC. Azzi Fudd also looms. One of the sweetest shooters in the sport, Fudd can splash in picture-perfect jumpers to propel UConn into the Final Four. Ashlynn Shade also is capable of doing the same.

Compared to USC, UConn has more pathways to a win, making a Trojan victory feel improbable. But, playing for the injured Watkins could inspire a will that obviates matchup advantages and allows the Trojans to find a higher level. So, don’t be surprised if USC finds a way to fight on.