Oregon vs. Liberty Odds, Prediction, & Best Bets

Oregon’s Tournament Pedigree Meets Liberty’s Shooting Prowess in First-Round Clash

March. The month when past resumes matter far less than present form. When a season’s work comes down to 40 minutes. And when teams, built for the long road, must first survive the opening step.

For Oregon (24-9, 12-8 Big Ten) and Liberty (26-7, 14-5 Conference USA), that moment arrives in the first round of the NCAA Tournament—a game that pits tournament experience against a team built for an upset.

Tipoff is set for Thursday, with Dana Altman’s Ducks looking to extend a remarkable streak: eight straight first-round wins in the NCAA Tournament.

But Liberty? They arrive as a dangerous mid-major with the shooting touch to make this one interesting.

Soon in Seattle. #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/CKKyTzTQyA

— Oregon Men’s Basketball (@OregonMBB) March 18, 2025

Oregon vs. Liberty Picks and Best Bets

All Oregon vs. Liberty odds are from BetOnline and are correct as of Wednesday, Mar. 19.

SpreadOregon -6.5
MoneylineOregon -300, Liberty +250
Over/Under139.5
Game Time10:10 p.m. ET
LocationClimate Pledge Arena | Seattle, WA
How To WatchTruTV

The Ducks: Balanced, Battle-Tested, and Always a Threat

Oregon is a team that doesn’t dominate any one area of the game but finds ways to win in March.

Top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (KenPom).
Wins over Alabama, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M.
A deep rotation that doesn’t rely too heavily on one player.

What the Ducks lack in elite scoring, they make up for in cohesion and coaching. Altman’s teams are known for peaking at the right time, and while this group might not have the firepower of past Oregon squads, they know how to survive and advance.

The biggest question? Who steps up.

Oregon is a perfect 4-0 so far in March this season.

Since 2010-11, his 1st year in Eugene…

Dana Altman now has a 75-30 (.714) record in the month of March.

It’s the BEST March win total nationally during that span.

Best basketball at the best time. pic.twitter.com/An9G5utvoU

— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) March 13, 2025

Sophomore guard Jackson Shelstad has shot the ball well from deep, but he hasn’t become the go-to scorer many expected. Veterans TJ Bamba and Keeshawn Barthelemy provide stability, while Nathan Bittle shoulders the rebounding load.

Bittle’s presence will be especially crucial against Liberty, a team that lacks size in the frontcourt. If he can control the paint, Oregon should have a significant edge inside.

The Flames: Precision Shooting, Stifling Defense, and the Upset Blueprint

Liberty isn’t a team that overwhelms you physically. What they do, they do well.

38.5% from three-point range (Top 15 nationally).
Even better inside the arc, ranking among the nation’s most efficient two-point teams.
A defense that allows just 62.8 points per game.

What makes the Flames so dangerous? They dictate pace.

Liberty slows the game down, forcing opponents to operate in low-possession, high-pressure situations. That’s how you pull off an upset—turning the game into a rock fight, making every possession count.

team scored early, often, and efficiently 📊 pic.twitter.com/TyK3mGOlXa

— Liberty Men’s Basketball (@LibertyMBB) March 19, 2025

If Taelon Peter and Colin Porter get hot from deep, the Flames could push Oregon to the brink. But their lack of size is a concern—they rank 358th in two-point attempts nationally, relying almost entirely on perimeter scoring.

That’s a high-risk approach against a team like Oregon, which has the length and athleticism to contest those shots.

Best Bets: Oregon -6.5 

Liberty hasn’t faced a Quad 1 team all season. Their best wins? Kansas State and McNeese. That’s a far cry from the gauntlet Oregon has faced.

That’s where experience matters.

Oregon has played at this level, beaten quality opponents, and won these types of games before. Liberty is a team capable of pulling an upset but is untested against this caliber of competition.

McKay’s squad will try to drag Oregon into a slower-paced game, limit possessions, and turn this into a battle of execution. But the Ducks have the personnel, the versatility, and the coaching to adjust, withstand the pressure, and find a way through. The Ducke get it done tomorrow.

Oregon doesn’t blow teams away. They don’t have a superstar. They aren’t elite in any one statistical category.

But they win in March.

Altman’s eight straight first-round victories weren’t by accident. Oregon has been tested. They’ve played through adversity. They’ve survived against high-level competition.

Liberty will make this a fight. But the Ducks? They’ll make it to the weekend.