Nine weeks of the NFL regular season are in the books, and nine weeks remain, which means the second half of the season begins tonight when the Denver Broncos host the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field for Thursday Night Football.
One of the biggest surprises of the first half has been the Broncos (7-2), who share the best record in the NFL with the Colts and Patriots. (What odds could you have gotten for that trifecta prior to the season?) Meanwhile, the Raiders (2-6) are having another Raiders-type year — only the Dolphins (2-7), the Jets (1-7), Titans (1-8) and Saints (1-8) have worse records.
Denver is a 9.5-point favorite over Las Vegas on Thursday.
The Broncos are doing their fans with high blood pressure no favors. They have won after trailing by eight or more points in the fourth quarter in three of their last five games. That’s tied for the most such wins in a five-game span all-time.
Meanwhile, the Raiders are doing no favors to their fanbase. They have allowed 30-plus points in back-to-back games (both losses) and rank in the bottom-five in the NFL in scoring offense (16.5 points per game) and total offense (283.3 yards per game).
While the Broncos-Raiders game is the marquee attraction on the sporting landscape on Thursday, there are other viewing options with Clippers-Suns in the NBA and a two-game college football slate.
Below is a snapshot of what to watch and bet on Thursday, Nov. 6. All times Eastern.
NFL best bets, where to watch
Raiders at Broncos
Time: 8:15 p.m. | Location: Denver | TV: Prime Video | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Broncos -9.5 | Expert: Broncos -8.5 (Larry Hartstein)
Will Brinson notes that Denver has feasted playing bad defenses at Empower Field, scoring 28 (against the Bengals), 33 (Giants) and 44 (Cowboys) points. That doesn’t bode well for a Las Vegas unit that ranks 23rd in the league in points per game allowed (26.3). In addition, that defense was on the field for 77 plays in last week’s overtime loss to the Jaguars and now has a short week to face the Broncos. Meanwhile, Denver boasts the best pass rush in the NFL, registering 40 sacks this season, 12 more than the next-best team.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, says the Broncos have a 62.0% chance to cover and assigns a rare ‘A’ grade to Denver -9.5. Additionally, SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein notes that Raiders quarterback Geno Smith struggles when pressured. “Now he has to deal with the league’s top pass rush,” Hartstein says.
More NFL best bets
NBA best bets, where to watch
Clippers at Suns
Time: 9 p.m. | Location: Phoenix | TV: NBA TV | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Suns -2.5 | Expert: Under 224.5 (Bruce Marshall)
What the Thursday NBA slate lacks in quantity it also lacks in quality. There’s only one game on the schedule, and it pits two sub-.500 teams: the Clippers (3-4) and Suns (3-5). James Harden (personal reasons) and Kawhi Leonard (ankle) are both out tonight for Los Angeles, which has lost two in a row and three of its last four. Meanwhile, guard Jalen Green, who was acquired in the Kevin Durant trade from Houston, is set to make his debut for a Phoenix team that is coming off a loss to Golden State. The SportsLine Projection Model says the Suns cover 58.0% of the time and gives a ‘C’ grade to Phoenix -2.5. Meanwhile, SportsLine expert Bruce Marshall isn’t sure the Suns can take advantage of the absences of Harden and Leonard. “This one doesn’t seem to have shootout written all over it,” he says.
College football best bets, where to watch
UTSA at South Florida
Time: 7:30 p.m. | Location: Tampa, Fla. | TV: ESPN | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: UTSA +13.5
The South Florida Bulls will look to continue their push for the American Conference Championship Game and a spot in the College Football Playoff when they host the UTSA Roadrunners at Raymond James Stadium. After knocking off Boise State and Florida the first two weeks of the season, the Bulls (6-2, 3-1 in American) emerged as the leading contender to be the Group of Five representative in the CFP. But on Oct. 25, they lost 34-31 at Memphis. They now are one of six teams with one conference loss. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners (4-4, 2-2) are coming off a resounding 48-26 victory over Tulane last week. The SportsLine Projection Model says UTSA has a 66.0% chance to cover and assigns a ‘B’ grade to Roadrunners +13.5.
Looking ahead
NBA: Rockets at Spurs
Time: 7:30 p.m. Friday | Location: San Antonio | TV: Prime Video | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Rockets -2
Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets face Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs for the first time this season on Friday at the Frost Bank Center. After losing their first two games of the season, the Rockets (5-2) have blown out five opponents in a row, winning by an average of 19.2 points a game. They own the most efficient offense in the NBA, averaging 122.4 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, the Spurs (5-2) have lost two straight but still have the No. 2 defense in the league (109.6). When Wembanyama is on the court, they have the most efficient defense in the NBA. On Friday, San Antonio will be without rookie guard Dylan Harper, who is set to miss multiple weeks with a calf injury. The SportsLine Projection Model says Houston has a 58.0% chance to cover and gives a ‘C’ grade to Rockets -2.
College basketball: No. 19 Kansas at No. 25 North Carolina
Time: 7 p.m. Friday | Location: Chapel Hill, N.C. | TV: ESPN | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: North Carolina -1.5
Two of college basketball’s bluebloods collide on Friday when the Kansas Jayhawks and North Carolina Tar Heels square off at the Dean E. Smith Center. Led by potential No. 1 overall pick Darryn Peterson, the Jayhawks (1-0) routed overmatched Green Bay 94-51 in their season opener. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels (1-0) also cruised in their season opener, dismantling Central Arkansas 94-54. The SportsLine Projection Model says North Carolina has a 57.0% chance to cover and assigns a ‘C’ grade to Tar Heels -1.5.
