Tomorrow’s Top 25 college basketball rankings prediction: Arkansas moves up

AP voters have held firm in keeping Arizona over Michigan at No. 1 in the poll over the last month even as mounting evidence—like KenPom’s net rating, total scoring margin and strength of schedule, among other metrics—continues to tilt heavily in Michigan’s favor. That’s why the first AP poll in two weeks, set to be released Monday, should be revealing of how voters handle the two unbeaten teams in their respective ballots.

The last AP poll on Dec. 22 showed a willingness from voters to cede some space to Michigan—it received 19 of 58 first-place votes, up from 15 the week prior—but there was enough reticence from the voting populace to suggest Arizona will remain No. 1 regardless of how well Michigan or any other team fares. In other words, it appears to be Arizona’s spot to lose. 

And Arizona has done nothing to lose it. The Wildcats went 3-0 since the last AP poll update with three wins by an average margin of 27.7 points over Bethune Cookman, South Dakota State and Utah. Not exactly a murderer’s row of foes. But all convincing wins, nonetheless. The Wildcats are 14-0 entering the week. I suspect that’s enough to keep them at No. 1 for a fourth consecutive poll.

Michigan has loudly made its case for No. 1, though, and its two wins since the last AP poll update — over McNeese and USC — were by 41 and 30 points, respectively. The Wolverines in their win over USC on Friday became the first team since 1996-97 to beat three ranked opponents by 30+ points. They lead the sport in scoring margin at 30.2 points despite a nonconference schedule that ranked 14th at KenPom. They’ve not just been good; they’ve been dominant. 

College basketball scores, winners and losers: Kentucky, Kansas, UNC, UCLA fall on bad day for blue bloods

Cameron Salerno

It makes for a tough call at the top of the poll. Again. So how will voters ballots shake out this week in the first update of the 2026 calendar year? My projection of how the rankings sort out are below.