The pressure exists annually at North Carolina, but it’s heightened even more ahead of a 2025-26 campaign. After hiring Will Wade and landing prized transfer Darrion Williams in the portal, rival NC State is raring to go. Louisville looks like big, bad Louisville again. Virginia is going to be much improved after hiring Ryan Odom. Duke is, well, Duke. Where’s UNC’s place in this ACC?
The runout this winter could set the stage for uncomfortable decisions next spring. The resources, tradition and expectations are here, but Hubert Davis-coached teams are notoriously unpredictable. When preseason predictors are out on the Tar Heels, they have superseded those doubters. When preseason predictors dub UNC as the preseason No. 1 team, it misses the NCAA Tournament.
After a four-year run of fickleness, this iteration of UNC basketball could be the most volatile of them all. North Carolina has flipped the roster on its head. Eight of the nine players who earned tick in last March’s first-round loss to Ole Miss are gone. UNC hit the portal, international waters and the high school ranks to basically build a team from scratch.
This is a reported $14 million roster, and everyone in the basketball world has heard that big number. But money doesn’t guarantee wins.
There’s only one question swirling around the North Carolina Men’s Basketball Program — What will it take for Hubert Davis to keep his job? Surrounded by an 11-million-dollar roster and a mandate to win, or else. What will the Tarheels do this season with that much pressure on the head of the operation? Joe Ovies joins Gary Parrish to give a boots-on-the-ground perspective of the situation going on in Chapel Hill.
Let’s dive into the weeds with the 2025-26 Tar Heels.
Projected starting lineup
1. Kyan Evans | 6-2 | 175 | Jr.
Evans was one of the most dangerous snipers in the Mountain West last season. The 6-2 guard shot over 44% from 3-point range on 4.4 attempts per game. He’s got a strap, but a major transition awaits. Evans is expected to shift to traditional point guard duties for an UNC offense that uses dramatically opposite strategies than his Colorado State brethren. Evans has appeal as a primary ball-handler because his silky-smooth jumper creates space for others, and he’s a slippery driver. He also improved mightily as a decision-maker down the stretch. In the final 17 games of the season, Evans notched 57 assists to just 30 turnovers. So while he still notched a concerning 25% turnover rate in 86 pick-and-roll possessions, he showed real growth reading defenses. Evans is talented, but some turbulent showings seem certain amidst a serious sea change. Evans is shaping up to be one of the biggest X-Factors in the ACC.
2. Seth Trimble | 6-3 | 200 | Sr.
Trimble is the only real rotation player who stuck around, and his patience should be rewarded with a massive senior season. Trimble, finally surrounded with a roster full of shooters, is primed to smash. The 6-3 guard has an electric first step and can put loads of pressure on the rim. He earned a trip to the free throw stripe on over 18% of his drives last year, which was one of the highest marks for an ACC guard. With shot-blockers forced to respect Henri Veesaar’s jumper, Trimble should become a total handful for perimeter defenders. Oh, and he’s one of the top transition bucket-getters in the league. With 200 free throw attempts firmly in the range of outcomes, Trimble is slated to post the best counting stats of his career, to go along with his usual excellent defense and nose for the ball on the glass.
3. Luka Bogavac | 6-6 | 215 | Fr.
Pivoting to Bogavac looks like a sharp move for UNC’s brass after it missed out on Cal transfer Andrej Stojakovic. Bogavac, already 22 years old, averaged over 15 points in the highly respected Adriatic League, while shooting north of 40% from downtown on 5.2 attempts per game. Bogavac’s combination of size and shooting gives him a high floor, but he’s able to handle the rock, too. Bogavac tallied 128 pick-and-roll reps last season, so UNC should be able to trust him to attack ball-screens on the second side of the floor. Some of the passes he can uncork are nifty, crafty and impressive. Bogavac is not much of a defender or a high-flying athlete, but, like so many European guards before him, he’s very well-schooled at using step-backs to create separation. He should stick in this rotation all year long.
4. Caleb Wilson | 6-10 | 215 | Fr.
Wilson has the highest pro potential on the roster and will enter 2025-26 as a projected lottery pick. The souped-up forward owns a 7-0 wingspan, and it shows up on defense early and often. Wilson can guard on the perimeter and also offer secondary rim protection, while shrinking the floor and covering ground with the best of ’em. He’s an awesome athlete with unique physical tools. Wilson’s playmaking should add another lever to UNC’s offense. He loves to grab and go in transition, and Wilson is an unselfish passer with sneaky-good vision and anticipation. Wilson’s jumper is a tad inconsistent, so his offense in the halfcourt is a work in progress. He will not lead this team in scoring, but he can be an excellent two-way role player.
5. Henri Veesaar | 7-0 | 225 | Jr.
Veesaar was a massive addition for UNC, literally and figuratively. The Arizona transfer fills a serious void on the back line. Opponents shot just 51% at the rim against Arizona when Veesaar was on the floor, and Arizona’s defense against top-100 teams was way better overall (14 points per 100 possessions, per hoop-explorer) when he played. Veesaar’s emergence down the stretch changed the calculus for Arizona, and UNC needs him to have a similar impact on both ends. Offensively, Veesaar is a capable 3-point shooter who moves fluidly in pick-and-rolls and dives to the rim with bad intentions. Veesaar can make some reads as a playmaker, which is something UNC’s bigs last year were not trusted to do. He’s not much of a post-up threat yet, but Veesaar is a high-energy monster on the glass with a ridiculous motor. UNC was a bad offensive-rebounding team last season. That seems unlikely when Veesaar and Wilson are on the floor together in 2025-26. With a big junior season, Veesaar can cement himself as an NBA Draft pick next summer.
Off the bench
Jarin Stevenson | 6-10 | 215 | Jr.
Stevenson was one of just 18 high-major bigs (6-foot-10 or taller) to splash 30 or more 3-pointers last year. There’s not much nuance in his game right now. It’s catch-and-shoot 3s and attacking long closeouts. Alabama mostly used him as a spacer, not a screener, with mixed results. He was ice cold in non-conference play before heating up to 42% from downtown on over 2.0 attempts per game in SEC action. When he made open corner 3-pointers, Stevenson was playable. When he missed open treys, Stevenson usually found himself on the bench because he didn’t bring much bite to the floor. Can he find some nastiness back home for Carolina? Can he build on some of his bulldozing drives that he started to add to his repertoire? What else does he have in his toolbox? Maybe a post-up or two once in a while?
Stevenson can be a helpful piece of this rotation. He offers UNC the flexibility to play some jumbo lineups with Stevenson (6-11), Wilson (6-9) and Veesaar (7 feet) on the floor together. Alabama played Stevenson at the 3 regularly, so that shouldn’t be an outlandish ask. He’ll get minutes backing up Wilson at the 4. Stevenson could even shift to a small-ball 5 for stretches against some of the undersized, finesse ACC frontcourts. There’s a path for a big role here if Stevenson can hold up his end of the bargain. Believe it or not, Stevenson is still just 19 years old.
Jonathan Powell | 6-6 | 190 | So.
Powell will play a 3-and-D role for UNC. Powell drained 35% of his 169 catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season at West Virginia, including posting a 40% mark on open 3-pointers.
Hand down, man down.
UNC does not have a high-level, off-movement shooter on this roster. Can Powell add that to his repertoire? Powell has the positional size and proven shot-making that UNC was looking for this offseason, but he needs to pack weight onto his frame to be a more well-rounded option. Powell rarely put the ball on the deck last season, but he can certainly play a role for the Tar Heels in 2025-26 as an off-the-bench floor-spacer who can get hot in a hurry.
Derek Dixon | 6-5 | 200 | Fr.
Dixon does not profile as a star, and that is perfectly fine. The 6-5, 200-pound guard is an organizer. Sometimes, you see him; sometimes, you don’t. But he impacts winning regardless. Dixon isn’t a blow-you-away athlete, and the jarring lack of rim pressure is a concern, but he can run a team and easily slide into a spot-up role. That positional flexibility gives him multiple avenues to garner playing time. Dixon’s jumper is butter, and he will be a high-volume threat from downtown or the midrange whenever he’s on the floor. The top-50 recruit is also a rock-solid secondary playmaker who has some impressive left-hand dimes on his resume. Dixon’s blend of shooting, playmaking and defense is a great recipe to earn minutes as a true freshman, especially because he processes the game well and is a willing connector.
Jaydon Young | 6-4 | 200 | Jr.
Young had to carry a heavy creation burden for an undermanned Virginia Tech club, and the efficiency sank as you might expect. Young posted a 92.1 offensive rating in 18 games against top-100 teams, per KenPom, which is well below the average 100.0 mark. But that’s what you’d expect when you shoot 29% from 3, 41% on 2s, rarely get to the free throw line and post nine games without a single assist. It was not pretty. Young’s role is about to change dramatically at UNC. Virginia Tech needed him to be the piece down the stretch. UNC doesn’t need him to even play. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound combo guard will have to adapt to a smaller role if he wants to carve out minutes.
Virginia Tech played slowly and didn’t have 5-men who could shoot 3-pointers. North Carolina is prepared to play faster, and the floor will be more spread with extra talent and a big man in Veesaar who can drain triples. That could open up more avenues for a big-bodied guard like Young to be more dynamic as a driver, especially if he’s not guarded by the best perimeter defender anymore.
James Brown | 6-10 | 240 | So.
Brown will tangle with Zayden High for that fourth-big role. The 6-10 big fella rarely played last year, but he projects to be a play-finisher who gets after it on the glass. Brown has added 25 pounds to his frame this offseason, which is a sterling development.
Filling out the roster
North Carolina has accumulated some interesting depth pieces, especially with Denis. The freshman guard rated just outside the top-50 nationally, but his tape offers appeal as a tough-shotmaker who can rise over defenders effortlessly to can jumpers. He could certainly work his way into the rotation if some of UNC’s older guards struggle. High, who was not allowed on the team last season due to an off-court matter, has re-enrolled at UNC and is back on the club. High and Matlekovic will provide frontcourt depth.
Market watch
Odds to win 2026 NCAA Tournament (via Fanduel): +4000, tied for 19th-best odds
UNC looks like a top-25 team. North Carolina has clearly built a squad with more size, shooting and versatility. UNC can shape-shift its lineups to play big or small and it will start three guards (Evans, Trimble and Bogavac) who are all comfortable making plays in pick-and-rolls. Toss them next to playmaking bigs like Wilson and Veesaar, and you can start to see the outline of a versatile, unpredictable offense.
But this team will go as far as its defense takes it. Trimble, Wilson and Veesaar are excellent individual defenders at three different levels of the floor. If this UNC defense is a sieve again, something terribly wrong went down. A top-20 defense that can rebound and kickstart a quick-strike transition offense should give UNC every chance to earn a top-three finish in the ACC. The lack of a true initiator point guard or a true bootyball threat could lead to some issues with this halfcourt offense, but there’s enough talent and shooting to find answers to the test on most nights.
Even with some of the improved clubs, the ACC is still down overall. Finishing lower than fifth in this league would be an extremely frustrating runout for a roster that has multiple NBA Draft prospects.
