INDIANAPOLIS – UConn and Illinois have already played once this season.
They did the rematch of the 2024 Elite Eight and the 30-0 run – the tournament moment that highlighted UConn’s Dan Hurley era until Sunday night – at Madison Square Garden back in November. It wasn’t nearly as dominant, but the Huskies took just eight minutes to get a double-figure lead and built it out to as many as 17 points in the second half, never trailing in a 74-61 victory.
Hurley texted Illinois coach Brad Underwood after the game, saying: “Let’s meet up in Indy.”
“And I didn’t mean for a drink or for dinner,” Hurley said. “I thought he had a great team, and I thought we did, too.”
Despite the recent history, Illinois opened as a 2.5-point favorite in Saturday’s Final Four matchup.
Why?
“Teams evolve, teams change,” Hurley said. “They’re doing different things on offense, we’re doing different things on offense, there’s strategic changes. Different players are playing well now and maybe weren’t playing well then. There were injuries for both teams. When you played somebody earlier in the year, obviously we’d rather have won than lost, but it’s not very helpful.”
Optically, the Illini have been one of the biggest, toughest teams in the nation from the moment Underwood put together his international-heavy roster, and they haven’t left any doubt in this NCAA Tournament. They rolled over No. 14 seed Penn and No. 11 seed VCU by 35 and 21 points, respectively. Then it was taking down No. 2 seed Houston by 10 and punching their ticket to the Final Four with a decisive 12-point win over No. 9 seed Iowa.
The most notable difference between Illinois in November and now is the emergence of 6-foot-6 freshman guard Keaton Wagler. It took him a few games against high-major opponents to get up to that level. And once he got comfortable, he was one of the best players in the country – as evidenced by his second team AP All-American status.
Wagler started against the Huskies but played only 14 minutes with three points (1-for-3 from the field), two turnovers and three fouls. He’s scored in double figures in every game since, including a 46-point effort to win at Purdue, 34 in an overtime loss to Wisconsin and 25 to get over Iowa in the Elite Eight.
He’s averaged 17.9 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game on the season and shot over 40% from 3-point range, where the Illini like to live.
“When he was in the game, we did a decent job guarding him. He was playing well going into our game, it’s not like he wasn’t playing well, he was one of their most talented players then. But they’ve got their rotation, their identity,” Hurley said. “Back when you play in November and December, you’re still trying to find your identity.”
Illinois, ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 20 on defense, according to KenPom, has four players averaging double figures in this NCAA Tournament.
Andrej Stojakovic, a highly-touted 6-7 guard who also only scored three points against the Huskies, is averaging 15.0 points over the last four games. David Mirkovic, a 6-9 forward, is averaging a double-double with 14.8 points and 11.0 rebounds, and Tomislac Ivisic – one of two 7-footers in the rotation along with his twin brother, Zvonimir – is averaging 12.0 points in the tournament and had a double-double with 11 points and 10 rebounds against the Huskies.
Not to forget senior point guard Kylan Boswell, who had his best game of the season with 25 points and nine rebounds as one of just two Illinois players to reach double figures in that first matchup. He didn’t make a shot from the field last weekend, going 0-for-5 with six points against Houston and 0-for-2 with two points against Iowa.
UConn isn’t the same teither
Tarris Reed Jr. was just coming back from an ankle injury and only played 15 foul-plagued minutes in that first matchup. He’s been playing the best basketball of his career of late, earning Most Outstanding Player of the East Regional after averaging 21.8 points, 13.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks over four tournament games.
Braylon Mullins was making his collegiate debut after missing six weeks with an ankle injury of his own. He, of course, is the talk of the nation after hitting the game-winning shot from 35 feet to beat Duke just before the buzzer on Sunday night. Even without his 3-point shot falling at its typical rate, he averaged 11.8 points over the last four games and returns to his home state with his confidence at a high.
The Huskies saw most of their scoring come from Solo Ball (15 points), Malachi Smith (14 points, nine assists) and Alex Karaban (12 points, nine rebounds, five assists) in that November matchup.
Ball has been due for a breakout game in this tournament. Smith has come through with Silas Demary Jr. pushing his way back from a high ankle sprain – Hurley said there is a chance he could be playing at around 90% health on Saturday. And Karaban has proven to be the ultimate winner, constantly coming through in big spots even when he’s not having his best night.
“It’s gonna be a good matchup, a fun game,” Reed said. “They’re really dynamic on the offensive end, that’s what makes them really special, and then lately they’ve been picking it up a lot on the defensive end. So they’re playing like a complete team right now. It’s gonna be a challenge for us, and it’s gonna be a challenge for them. They’re gonna have to guard our sets, we’re gonna have to guard people with their length, stop them from attacking the O-glass. So it’s really gonna be a fun game overall.”
“We came here for rings, not watches,” Hurley said at his Thursday press conference. “Everyone that comes to the Final Four gets a beautiful watch, but only one group is going to get a ring.”
