WNBA: Can a complacent Lynx squad repeat as Commissioner’s Cup champs?

It’s no secret that the Minnesota Finals is hunting a trophy this season—a WNBA Finals trophy.

They won the Commissioner’s Cup last year, and given that they’re boasting a near-identical roster, midseason glory just doesn’t bring the validation that they’re looking for. Another Commissioner’s Cup trophy may not mean that much to the Lynx, but fortunately for them, that isn’t the only prize on the line Tuesday. No one put it better than Courtney Williams, who, when asked about her motivation going into a second straight Cup championship, said, “I don’t really care about the hardware, I want that bag. Straight up, let’s call a spade a spade… We tryna get that money.”

Each player on the winning side Tuesday night will go home with $30,000, while the losers get $10,000 a piece. So, regardless of whether or not Minnesota cares an awful amount about the trophy, that extra $20,000 is enough to motivation play some highly competitive hoops over.

Repeat favorites

Sitting at a league-leading 14-2 record, Minnesota are clear favorites to win the Commissioner’s Cup over the 8-8 Indiana Fever. The two teams haven’t yet faced each other this year, but all arrows point to the Lynx holding a significant advantage.

For a championship matchup, the Lynx and Fever are having drastically different seasons. Minnesota has only lost two games, one of which came when Napheesa Collier sat out with a lower back injury against the Mystics. Indiana only has three wins against teams with a winning record. Ironically, the only promising stretch of games for Indiana came in Commissioner’s Cup group play, which is the reason that they’re appearing in the final despite having such a middling record. Indiana won four of five Commissioner’s Cup games, including an impressive 14-point win over the New York Liberty, which dulled a worrisome 19-point loss to the Atlanta Dream.

Minnesota has the best net rating, offensive rating and defensive rating of any team in the WNBA this year. They’re first in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and assists. Indiana is not a particularly good defensive team, but fortunately for them, their best defender is the one who will be positionally matched up with Collier. Aliyah Boston has the size and the skill to stop Collier from being a one-man army, but holding her under 20 points is a different battle—and one that Phee has only lost three times in 13 games so far.

Looking past the front line of Collier, Minnesota’s front six is dominant. Courtney Williams is slumping with her scoring efficiency, but she offers so much more than buckets as the team’s lead facilitator. Kayla McBride and Alanna Smith are perfect ancillary weapons who can do a little bit of everything. Natisha Hiedeman is nearly doubling her output off the bench compared to last year. Bridget Carleton isn’t asked to do too much, but makes the right play when the ball comes to her. The only criticism of the Lynx is their failure to feature younger players, but we’re talking about one Commissioner’s Cup title game, not about their long term lineup sustainability. Top to bottom, they’re built for these big moments.

A clash of captains

Tuesday night should be a supernova collision between Collier and Caitlin Clark, the two players selected by fans to captain the 2025 All-Star teams. The elephant in the room, however, is that Clark is currently day-to-day with a groin injury that sidelined her for Indiana’s last two contests.

While Clark’s captainship was undoubtedly bolstered by fan voting (it’s quite hard to argue that she’s been a top-two player in the W this season), Collier is the leagues best player—point blank. She’s averaging a hair under 25 points per game while shooting 53 percent from the floor, 40 percent from 3 and 94 percent from the free-throw line. Between her mythical efficiency and dominant volume scoring, she’s on pace to have one of the greatest offensive seasons in league history while maintaining her reputation as an all-league defender. There really isn’t much more to say: If Collier is on your TV, you need to be watching.

Obviously, Indiana is just not the same team without Clark. When Clark isn’t on the court, their offensive rating drops by 4.8 points per 100 possessions. Their effective field goal percentage drops by 3.1 percent. Their defense gets marginally better, but not by enough to make up for the offensive differential; they give up 1.5 more points per 100 possessions with Clark on the court. The eye test backs the numbers. Indiana looks much more explosive, dominant and connected when their star point guard is in uniform.

Logic will tell you that if Clark doesn’t play, Indiana will not have a reasonable chance to best Minnesota. It should be noted, however, that Indiana’s win percentage without Clark isn’t zero. They’re 3-4 without her, and 5-4 when she plays. I wouldn’t fall into the trap of saying that they’re a capable team without their star, but even sans Clark, nothing is guaranteed for the Lynx. Hopefully, she plays, but either way, Tuesday night should be one of the season’s best games.