By Eric Bottjer
“I don’t see me and him (Canelo) fighting, I would say 154, realistically (is the highest I will fight). Them boys get big up there.” – Terence Crawford (Aug. 2, 2023)
Time changes some things. Money changes more. Three years after Terence Crawford dismissed the idea of fighting Canelo Alvarez at 168 lbs, here we are. Fifty million dollars can make a lot of folks brave. But once money seduced Crawford, his mindset went to, “I will find a way to win.”
There’s little doubt Crawford is still a dog, not a businessman. When the bell rings, he will have envisioned hundreds of times how he beats Canelo. It’s not a fight we demanded. But it’s fascinating, nonetheless, because of the talent of the men. Both are all-time greats, who could have competed with any boxer in history. There’s no doubt Canelo could have fought any middle or super-middle from any era. The question is, can Crawford perform at that level at this weight. This year’s “Fight of the Century,” is between two great boxers separated – at least by natural weight – by two weight classes.
Crawford is not the only boxing person who thinks he wins. Shawn Porter, Brian Norman, Christy Martin, Mike Tyson, Amir Khan, Tim Bradley – all pick Bud. While none of these folks are expert gamblers, they know their business. They’re choosing Crawford because he has the following advantages:
1. Boxing IQ. Crawford is a joy to watch for boxing purists. He takes his times, watches his opponents early, files away the flaws and repeated mistakes they make and then, if the fight enters the middle rounds, makes his man pay. Repeatedly.
2. He can fight effectively from the southpaw stance. And, just as importantly, knows when to turn southpaw.
3. He has low mileage. Crawford has never been beaten up. He’s had few fights that have pushed him near his limit. He turns 38 in two weeks. But he’s a young man in his late 30s.
4. He’s mentally tough, while at the same time not delusional about his abilities (many modern-day “warriors” fight their best on social media platforms).
5. He knows his team and they know him. Trainer Brian “Bo-Mac” McIntyre has been with Bud since the beginning.
That said, these advantages are slight. Canelo also has an incredible boxing IQ. Canelo has handled slick southpaws at a high level (Erislandy Lara, Austin Trout, Billy Joe Saunders); he’s the younger man here by three years; Canelo, too, is old-school and does all of his fighting in the ring. And, like Bud, has an excellent trainer who has been there from fight 1.
There is one clear advantage: size. Canelo has fought the last 14 years at 154 lbs or higher. Crawford has just moved into the neighborhood of light-middleweight. One match with Israel Madrimov. And Bud struggled. And he’s now bypassed middleweight to collect his massive check against an all-time great, hoping that mass itself does not dictate the winner.
This situation of size difference among greats has precedent, with mixed results. James “Smitty” Smith and Lee Groves and myself touched on this recently on their podcast and we all referenced Leonard-Hagler. Hagler was past his best. As is Canelo. There is suspicion that Crawford is on the level of a Leonard. That fight turned out pretty even.
There is also Hagler-Duran, which may be a more accurate comparison. Hagler here was not shot. Duran moved up multiple weight classes and made it uncomfortable for Hagler.
One fight not mentioned, but bears consideration is when welterweight champion Jose Napoles moved up to middleweight to face Carlos Monzon. People forget that Napoles was a legit great. He’d lost once in 8 years when he faced Monzon, and that was on a cut. A battered Napoles couldn’t answer the bell for the seventh. It was the size, not the talent.
This is what our judgement and history tell us. What about the numbers, knowing, of course, they include fights that don’t match the talent of their present opponent or magnitude of tonight’s fight. Bud throws more punches per round, but that number is skewered by the Canelo-William Scull punch stats. Scull ran, Canelo followed and rarely threw. In his two previous fights, Canelo averaged 42 punches per round. Crawford averaged about the same vs. Spence and Madrimov, but doubled that output against David Avenesyan.
In the above fights, Canelo landed about 41 percent of his blows, and was hit about 23 percent of his opponent’s punches. Surprisingly, Bud only landed at a 28 percent clip and his opponents reached him 25 percent of the time.
Prediction: Canelo by decision
