How do mid-season coaching changes affect European football teams?

Football teams change coaches all the time. However, when the change happens mid-season, the world pauses and pays attention because the impact is often immediate. Some teams play better after a coaching change. Others seem confused and disoriented, losing more games than usual. Looking at historical data and team performance, we analyze the impact of mid-season coaching changes on European football teams.

Why do football teams change their coaches?

The goal of football is to win. Whether you’re a passive fan or opened an account through the Betway register where you regularly bet on matches, you come to the pitch for results. Consequently, the most common reason teams change coaches is loss. This was the case in 2024, when Manchester United said goodbye to Erik Ten Hag after a sustained, season-long losing streak.

Sometimes, however, teams let go of coaches because of a lack of chemistry with the players, off-field controversies, or financial or personal reasons. Whatever the case, there’s no denying that managerial changes affect a team’s performance.

What is the “new manager bounce”?

Statistics from the past several decades of European football show that teams almost always improve their point average after getting a new coach.

This phenomenon is called the new manager bounce.

In 2017/18, Swansea City’s points-per-match average went from 0.7 to 2 in their first five games after hiring Carlos Carvalhal as new team manager. In 2021/21, Chelsea went from 1.5 to 2.6 in their first five games with Thomas Tuchel.

What causes the new manager bounce?

Experts believe the new manager bounce happens for one of three reasons. One is because a new manager brings in a new perspective and motivates a team, renewing confidence and morale and inspiring better performance.

Two, because a new manager introduces new tactics that confuse and catch a team’s opponents off guard, giving the team the upper hand. Or, three, because hiring a new coach marks a psychological “new beginning,” which can disrupt a losing streak.

Whatever the cause, the new manager bounce is almost always temporary.

Are there long-term benefits to coaching changes?

It depends. Changing the coach mid-season typically has no significant long-term benefit on a team’s performance.

Historical data shows that teams often return to their point average after the first five games or perform worse after a coaching change. Take the example of Swansea City. After the boon of the first five games, they remained relegated for the season.

This is because mid-season changes cause instability and uncertainty among players, which can be disorienting. In reality, the change in results happens because a team’s performance depends on much more than the managerial staff.

What factors affect the success of a mid-season coaching change?

Several factors must come together to give a mid-season coach change the best chance of success. The new coach must improve on the previous coach in terms of skill and tenure. They should also have a good rapport with the players and full support from the club ownership to make the changes they need within the team. Finally, the coach should have enough time to implement their ideas and start producing results.

So, are mid-season coaching changes good or bad?

It depends. Some teams change coaches mid-season and immediately improve, only to revert to their previous performance later. Others, like Arsenal, see an initial point dip only to improve significantly over time. However, a coaching change that happens mid-season leaves a team very little room for adjustment and can often do more harm than good.