5 key questions that need answering after the second 2026 pre-season test in Bahrain

Just like that, pre-season testing ahead of the 2026 Formula 1 season is complete. Next up, it’s Melbourne.

But the work doesn’t stop there for F1’s 11 teams, who will be using the fortnight between now and the first round of the season in Australia (March 6-8) to dig into the data and work out the gains they can make in the short and long term.

As has been the case throughout the two pre-season tests in Bahrain, and the Barcelona Shakedown before them, it’s unwise to read too much into the lap times because teams have been running different programmes.

So that leaves us with plenty of questions ahead of the opening Grand Prix weekend of the season, some of which we’ll try to answer below.

Are Ferrari the ones to beat?

Charles Leclerc set the pace to top the timing charts as the curtain fell on pre-season testing at the Bahrain International Circuit, with the Ferrari racer ending up nearly 0.9s clear of the pace after a series of very impressive qualifying simulation runs.

But while that is a significant gap and the car looked very compliant as Leclerc danced it around the desert track, performance in testing should always be taken with a rather large pinch of salt.

It’s why boss Fred Vasseur admitted to me that he was happy with their running, particularly the high mileage as Leclerc added another 132 laps to their tally on the final day, but he returned to his familiar pre-season tune that it’s too early to make any conclusions.

“Happy, yes, but we have to keep in mind what was the target at the beginning,” he said. “Our target was to do a lot of mileage and I think this went pretty well, to collect data, to try to improve session after session, and I think this went well.

“Now, performance is not relative – it’s not performance relative and, at the end of the day, we don’t know the level of fuel of the others, we don’t know the engine mode, we don’t know that we didn’t have the same tyres. It means that, let’s be focused on ourselves to try to do a better job in Melbourne.”

That said, the trends, the data and the chatter among senior sources at teams is that the famous Italian squad are at worst inside the top four teams, who look very closely matched, and at best second – or maybe even first – depending on the circuit layout.

Even if they aren’t the pace-setters in Melbourne, Vasseur’s gamble to turn off development last April and focus on 2026 and then bring a spec-A car to the shakedown before gradually adding performance – including two very neat devices in the form of a little beam wing and a rotating rear wing – seems to have worked and given them a good foundation.

Are Mercedes the ones to beat?

That seems to be the growing consensus in the paddock, but there really doesn’t seem to be much in it between them and Ferrari with Red Bull and McLaren in touching distance.

Mercedes have looked strong through pre-season from Barcelona to Bahrain but it was hard to determine their pace because they didn’t do any proper race simulations in the second test and didn’t chase performance on low fuel in the way Ferrari did on the final day.

However, their speed in the hotter, less favourable conditions, was very strong while the longer stints they did do were several tenths quicker than Ferrari’s best long-run stints – though they were done as part of a race simulation.

Their weak point has been reliability with a few mechanical gremlins having crept in, mostly when Kimi Antonelli was driving the car, so it has been far from plain-sailing for the eight-time World Champions.

But there’s absolutely no doubt, Mercedes have responded better to these new regulations than they did the last (they endured painful campaigns in the ground-effect era from 2022-2025) and are in the best shape they’ve been in pre-season since 2021.

While Toto Wolff and George Russell were keen to highlight the strength of Red Bull’s new power unit created in conjunction with Ford on the straights – particularly in terms of deployment – our data suggests it is the Silver Arrows who hold the edge in a straight line, albeit it only by a small margin.

It seems they are comfortably towards the front of the top-four – but we’ll have to wait until the first three races on three very different tracks to see where exactly they stack up.

Are McLaren in a good position to defend their title?

They are certainly in the mix, but in-line with their pre-testing expectations, they never expected to be favourites heading into this campaign, which is no surprise given they were locked in a title fight until the final race of last season.

But McLaren aren’t panicking. If anything, they are very comfortable with where they are and very encouraged with the learnings they’ve made with a car that has largely been the same from the first run in the Barcelona Shakedown to the last lap in Bahrain pre-season testing.

“We have successfully signed off our test items and the core functionality and reliability of the car while enabling long runs and systematic familiarisation of setup, aerodynamics, tyres as well as power unit maximisation,” said Team Principal Andrea Stella.

“Each day we have been able to add more performance which is pleasing to see, and we now have a clear handle on the car’s potential as we enter the new era of Formula 1.”

They have a solid upgrade plan for in-season development and, if their recent record is anything to go by, they will likely add huge chunks of performance every time they bring a package to the track.

So, while they may be third or fourth in the pecking order now – battling with Red Bull – they’re not far behind and in a great position to pounce, particularly on circuits like Melbourne’s Albert Park where the layout should suit them.

Who is best of the rest?

With Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull appearing to form a quartet at the top, it looks like a battle between Haas, Alpine and possibly Racing Bulls for the tag of leader of the midfield.

Alpine turned the taps off on development last year and endured the pain that comes with it as they struggled towards the back of the field – but they hoped that the suffering would be worth it with all the resources going into their 2026 car.

The early signs are that it was, with the Enstone-based team – now running Mercedes power which is expected to be the class-leader this year – enjoying a very encouraging pre-season test that left both Pierre Gasly and Franco Colapinto encouraged by what they have at their disposal.

Their one-lap pace was decent, with Gasly trading fastest laps with Ollie Bearman on the final day, while they backed that up on the longer runs, too.

But they look set to face stiff competition from Haas, who had their smoothest-ever pre-season courtesy of supreme reliability and a swift turn of pace, particularly over one-lap.

Racing Bulls are perhaps the dark horses. They endured some reliability pain early on, but recovered well into the second week, with Arvid Lindblad achieving the highest-ever lap tally in a single pre-season testing day in Bahrain with 165 as they focused more on long runs than low-fuel.

Who has the most work to do?

That’s a battle between Aston Martin, Williams and Cadillac, with Aston Martin probably edging it given they finished bottom of the mileage charts in Bahrain.

The Silverstone-based squad endured woeful reliability throughout testing, having only made it to the Barcelona Shakedown on the penultimate day, with Lance Stroll managing just six laps without setting a lap time on the final day.

Their chassis didn’t look fun to drive out on track when it did run while their works Honda power unit was unreliable throughout. The Japanese manufacturer’s battery was a particularly pesky item and, as they ran out of parts on the final day, running was limited before ending 2.5 hours early.

Williams, on the other hand, ran very well in Bahrain as they piled on the mileage and if they were not limited by tyres or time, they would have done even more.

It’s a good recovery from the team after they missed the entire Barcelona Shakedown, but they are lacking performance in part because their car is overweight and costing them several tenths of a second.

In theory, they should be able to shave that off quickly in the first part of the season to snatch that lap time back, but it does mean the first few races might be a bit challenging as they wait for upgrades.

Newcomers Cadillac have done a superb job to get themselves on the grid for 2026, around a year after they got the all-clear to enter Formula 1 – but as you’d expect from a team starting from scratch, there have been niggles operationally, logistically and technically.

They’ve methodically worked through their plan, though, and while it will take time for them get comfortable in the sport – with the team expected to be at the back of the pack in Melbourne – all signs for the future are very positive.