An F1 Dilemma: Race for This Year, or Next

The 10 Formula 1 teams face a dilemma this season. They have to decide when to stop development of this year’s car to focus on 2026, for what Christian Horner, the Red Bull team principal, said was “the biggest regulation change in probably 50 or 60 years in the history of the sport.”

Teams develop their cars over a season as they fight for the drivers’ and constructors’ championships or try to improve their positions. The higher a team finishes, the more prize money it earns.

This year is different. The changes to the regulations in 2026, including the configuration of the engine, means teams have to focus resources early on next season’s car. Development for 2025 could stop after a few Grands Prix.

James Vowles, the team principal of Williams, said his team would fall in line. “I’ve been very clear from the beginning that 2026 is the year I want to focus on, and that will have an effect on 2025,” he said.

“There will be teams upgrading. I’m confident you’ll see a fight at the front of the championship, and they’ll be in a bind as to whether to invest in 2025 or 2026.”

Vowles could not name a specific date or race when Williams will look to next year. “Mainly because I want to see how we get out of the gate this year,” he said.

“The only thing that’s going to make a difference is when we turn a wheel come Australia,” referring to the races starting with the first Grand Prix on March 16. “But even then, I don’t think our path will change from where we are.”

McLaren heads into the new season with a constructors’ title to defend. Last season, it won its first in 26 years, ending the domination of Red Bull after it won the championship the previous two seasons.

Andrea Stella, the McLaren team principal, said teams would “have to make a call depending on what realistically are your opportunities to win races and fight for the championship.”

McLaren has developed its car for this year “as fast as possible” to capitalize on its success of last season and to retain its title.

“There will be some updates during the early races of the season, but this would have been the same, even without the changes in the 2026 regulations,” Stella said.

“With four teams, on any single weekend, in a condition to win a race, it would be very easy to fall from being on pole position to P8 on the grid, so we have been full gas in terms of development, and we will see if we have been able to develop more than our competitors from 2024 to the 2025 car.”

McLaren finished 14 points ahead of Ferrari in the constructors’ standings last year. Ferrari, which now has Lewis Hamilton, a seven-time champion, driving this season, has not won a title since 2008.

Frédérick Vasseur, its team principal, said the regulation changes, which included major revisions to the aerodynamics of the car, were too important.

“If we have to develop the current car, it will be the first couple of races, and then I think everyone will shift focus,” he said. “I don’t want to say that we will stop the current car, but we’ll be more focused on 2026.

“It means that the first races, and the first upgrade that we will bring on the car, will be crucial for the season.”

Mercedes has not challenged for a title since the current rules, designed for closer racing, were introduced for 2022. Last season, it won four Grands Prix, but it finished a distant fourth in the standings, 198 points behind McLaren.

Toto Wolff, its team principal, senses an opportunity to capitalize this year if Mercedes makes a strong start to the season.

“We are fighting for victories and podiums, and we cannot write it off,” he said. “Yes, the transition of people and capability into the 2026 regulations is going to happen a bit earlier than it would under stable regulations, but it’s not going to be game changing.”

Wolff said the words of Niki Lauda, a three-time champion and nonexecutive chairman of Mercedes before his death in 2019, were an inspiration on how to approach the next two seasons.

“Niki, when asked, ‘Would you rather win this championship or the next one?,’ he would say, ‘Both,’” Wolff said.

Red Bull slipped to third in the constructors’ championship last year, despite its driver, Max Verstappen, winning the drivers’ championship for a fourth consecutive year.

Its dilemma is more acute. For the first time, it is developing its own engine at Red Bull Powertrains at its headquarters in England. Ford has joined as a technical partner.

“One of our concerns, when we took on this project, was that we missed the depth of knowledge compared to Ferrari, Mercedes or any other O.E.M.-owned team,” Horner said referring to automakers.

“Then this partnership with Ford naturally happened, and it’s given us a great collaboration, so much enthusiasm across the different departments that we’re able to go toe-to-toe with what our competitors have available to them.”

He said he was “under no illusions” his team has “a mountain to climb” to compete in 2026.

Horner has experience fighting for titles to the last race with new regulations looming. Red Bull did so in 2021 when Verstappen won the drivers’ championship, but the team lost the constructors’ to Mercedes.

If Red Bull finds itself in a similar situation this year, important decisions will have to be made.

“Inevitably, your development gets dragged into the season longer, which is particularly hard,” Horner said. “We saw that in 2021 going into ’22, where you have a big conceptual change of the regulations.

“If there is a tight championship and it does go down to the wire, then that’s going to be a tough balancing act for the different teams to choose how they apportion their resources.”