Lando Norris’ championship charge was dealt a blow in the wake of the Las Vegas Grand Prix, when news broke that both his and McLaren team mate Oscar Piastri’s cars had been disqualified from the race for a technical infringement.
As such, Norris saw his lead in the championship cut back to 24 points over Piastri and now Max Verstappen, who has joined the Australian on 366 points.
The 24-point advantage still leaves Norris in a commanding position, but it is not quite as emphatic as what would have been a 30-point lead had he not lost his second place in Las Vegas, and the 18 points that went with it.
When Norris won the Sao Paulo Grand Prix, he knew he could not wrap the title up in Las Vegas but would have to wait for Qatar – and the final Sprint weekend of the campaign.
But can he still win the title this coming weekend after his DSQ, or will it go down to the season finale in Abu Dhabi? We have listed all the key numbers and scenarios below…
What’s the situation heading to Qatar?
There are 58 points still on the table in 2025 – 25 for winning each of the remaining two Grands Prix in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, plus eight points for winning the Sprint this weekend.
Simply put, if Norris finishes the Grand Prix in Qatar leading Piastri and Verstappen by 26 points or more, then he will have done enough to win the title.
Can Norris get the job done in the Sprint?
The good news for Norris is he can achieve the title in a number of ways – but one thing he cannot do is clinch it during Saturday’s Sprint.
Even if he wins the Sprint (bagging eight points) and his two rivals fail to score, Norris would lead them by 32 points with 50 remaining.
Taking the weekend as a whole, if Norris outscores Piastri and Verstappen by two points, he would be declared champion (the gap being 26 points with 25 left).
So, the title is going to be decided after either the Qatar Grand Prix itself, or in Abu Dhabi.
What about potential ‘countback’ scenarios?
If Norris outscores both Piastri and Verstappen by at least one point in Qatar, and wins the Grand Prix, the championship would be his.
The respective Grand Prix victory tallies at that stage would be eight for Norris, seven for Piastri and six for Verstappen, meaning a win for either Piastri or Verstappen in Abu Dhabi and a non-score for Norris would not be enough for either to overcome the countback.
Indeed, Piastri would be equal on race wins, but would lose based on the number of second places (currently eight versus three), while Verstappen would lose based on number of wins (eight versus seven).
If Norris outscores Piastri by one point in Qatar, without winning the Grand Prix, Piastri would not be eliminated from the title race.
That’s because Piastri could still win in Abu Dhabi and Norris could still not score, meaning they would be tied on points, and Piastri would be champion based on number of wins (eight or nine wins versus seven).
If Norris outscores Verstappen by one point in Qatar and Verstappen wins the Grand Prix (possible via Norris finishing second in the Grand Prix and winning the Sprint), Verstappen would not be eliminated.
This is because another victory for Verstappen in Abu Dhabi and a non-score for Norris would put them on equal points, but Verstappen would be champion based on the number of wins (eight versus seven).
Some number-crunching to do over the Qatar weekend then. But don’t fret – we’ll be bringing you fresh title permutations once the Qatar Sprint is concluded, so stay tuned to F1.com.
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