Anticipation is building ahead of the 2025 season finale in Abu Dhabi, where the Drivers’ Champion will be crowned following a thrilling 24-race campaign. But will it be Lando Norris, Max Verstappen or Oscar Piastri who leaves the Yas Marina Circuit with the title? Our writers – Lawrence Barretto, Chris Medland, David Tremayne, James Hinchcliffe and Alex Jacques – have shared their predictions for what might unfold at this weekend’s championship decider…
Lawrence Barretto (F1 Correspondent & Presenter): For the first time in 15 years, the championship is going to the wire with three still in contention, and in my view it is exactly what this year’s sensational Formula 1 campaign deserves.
I’m sure reigning World Champion Max Verstappen will make it interesting – and he’s my pick for the race win. But I think Lando Norris, who dominated last year’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, is still the favourite for the title as he’s the only one in control of his own destiny, given he leads by 12 points.
And while he’s had a difficult two races leading up to this weekend, I think he’ll find a way to get over the line for a maiden title.
Whatever happens for Verstappen, this has been his best season ever in my eyes. He should have been out of the fight ages ago (he was 104 points behind after Zandvoort) after Red Bull’s mid-season slump, but he’s found a way to hang in there.
Oscar Piastri is the outsider, which is remarkable given he led by 34 points after the Dutch Grand Prix. His bounce back to form in Qatar means he definitely can’t be counted out – but I feel like he’s got just a bit too much to do to snatch the lead back when it counts.
Chris Medland (Special Contributor): I’m still not quite sure how we’ve ended up here, with a three-way fight at the final round. It looked like an all-McLaren championship battle was possible until the end of the season, but what Max Verstappen and Red Bull have managed to achieve is pretty remarkable.
Still, for all of the focus on McLaren’s errors in Qatar, or the disqualification in Las Vegas, the main factor I’m taking away from both races is that the car is still extremely quick, and this championship would actually be over right now but for the skid block issues 10 days ago.
The way Verstappen and Red Bull have closed in will really put the pressure on McLaren this weekend – and, if given even half a chance to snatch the championship, you know Verstappen will take it – but McLaren don’t need to do anything special with their car to give Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri everything they need to win the title.
Last year there was a different type of pressure relating to the Teams’ Championship, but Norris was faultless all weekend and given a top-three finish is all that he needs, I can see a repeat where Norris puts his car on pole and gets the job done.
David Tremayne (Hall of Fame F1 Journalist): After McLaren’s strategic snafu in Qatar, F1 gets – for the first time since 2010 – a three-horse showdown in Abu Dhabi on Sunday.
Even though Lando Norris’ 24-point pre-Qatar lead has been slashed to just 12 over Max Verstappen, with Oscar Piastri another four further back, the odds still favour the Englishman. He will become World Champion, cut and dried, if he finishes third, regardless of where either Max or Oscar finish.
Fourth or fifth would also do – which might be handy if Mercedes are strong – but only if somebody other than Max wins. Ditto sixth or seventh, provided neither Max nor Oscar wins. In extremis, he could still pulI it off with eighth, provided Max doesn’t finish in the top two or Oscar doesn’t win.
In other words, he could stroke it if necessary, but trying to do that often backfires and I’d expect him to be as sharp and hungry as he possibly can be and to fight for the win.
No matter how nonchalant the reigning champion is – and that’s genuine – you’d better believe he wants to be the first man since Michael Schumacher to win five titles in row… And on Qatar form he’ll be a huge threat to McLaren’s aspirations. Equally, Oscar feels he is owed a victory after last weekend left him “speechless” just after he’d rediscovered his mojo.
Back in 2010 Ferrari focussed totally on Mark Webber in the race in Abu Dhabi, but as Red Bull refused to favour the Australian via team orders, Sebastian Vettel in the other Red Bull snuck through to beat his team mate and Fernando Alonso.
That marked only the third time in history that the eventual champion was the man who only led the points table after the final round (the others being John Surtees in 1964 and James Hunt in 1976). Might Max match that little bit of history too?
Like the baddie in a pantomime, fans are looking at him and yelling the warning to Lando: “He’s behind you!” But unlike Ferrari 15 years ago, McLaren are only too aware of the threat the third man poses. How they deal with that, while trying to balance their ‘papaya rules’ without tripping over themselves in that well-meaning but risky process, may ultimately determine who walks away wearing the 2025 crown.
James Hinchcliffe (IndyCar Race Winner and Analyst): I don’t think anyone, at any point of the season, would’ve realistically thought we would have a genuine three-way title fight coming into the final round.
I also don’t think anyone saw a scenario where Mclaren – a team that locked up the Teams’ title with six races to go – would not be 1-2 in the Drivers’ battle coming into Abu Dhabi. Yet here we are. On the brink of one of the greatest comebacks – or most phenomenal fumbles – in sporting history.
All three drivers have been superb this year and each have a strong case for being a deserving champion in 2025. You can go back and point out races for each where points were lost or gained, but all that is irrelevant now. Now, it all comes down to this one race.
That said, when you look at the numbers and play out the scenarios, my prediction is a Lando Norris title. He only needs a podium to secure the title and he has only been outside the top three at the flag twice in the last eight Grands Prix, with one of those being the Baku horror show.
Throw in the fact that Yas Marina is a lower grip track than Qatar and recent trends show the lower the grip, the bigger the advantage he has over Oscar Piastri in the sister car. I still think Max Verstappen can, and likely will, win the race, but Lando has enough in the pocket to bring home the title.
Alex Jacques (F1 TV Commentator): I’m delighted we’re getting a three-way title fight for the first time in 15 years, and history tells us the last two times this has happened, the driver in third in the standings at the start has claimed the title by the end of the day. It was Kimi Raikkonen in 2007 and Sebastian Vettel in 2010.
That’s about the most hopeful line I can write for Oscar Piastri fans. In Formula 1’s ultra reliable age, the Australian driver realistically needs contact between his other two title rivals to have a chance – not impossible, but unlikely given Lando Norris doesn’t need to win.
I expect whoever takes pole to win the race and, given Max Verstappen seems to be feeling zero pressure, it’s most likely to be him. Despite Verstappen’s heroic comeback, I think he’ll just fall short as I can’t see Norris missing the podium, so my prediction is we’ll be watching the first McLaren Drivers’ title since 2008 on Sunday with Norris claiming his first championship.
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