With Cody Bellinger, Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker coming off the board in the last week, MLB free agency has entered the homestretch — but there will still be some big moves in the weeks to come before spring training begins.
Where will the most intriguing remaining free agents land? Will we see a blockbuster trade? And how will Tarik Skubal’s arbitration case with the Detroit Tigers play out?
We asked our MLB experts to make one bold prediction for where this offseason will go from here.
The Skubal saga
Tarik Skubal will win his arbitration case
Arbitration hearing rooms are notorious for their unpredictability. Lawyers who have argued cases have left the room convinced they’d made airtight arguments — and lost. Others were despondent in the aftermath, certain of defeat, and emerged victorious. Which is to say that whatever approach Tarik Skubal’s team takes in trying to convince a three-person panel that he’s worthy of the $32 million he’s seeking instead of the $19 million the Detroit Tigers are offering, the ultimate result is a crapshoot.
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Why will he win, then? It’s very simple: Even if the comparables are in Detroit’s favor, even if a $32 million award would smash the previous high awarded in a room by more than $12 million, Skubal is the first American Leaguer to win consecutive Cy Young Awards since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000. And in a world where lesser pitchers get $30 million-plus a season and Skubal can compare his salary to any in MLB, his performance — the best pitcher in baseball — will be enough to carry the day. — Jeff Passan
Teams ready to make a big splash
The Baltimore Orioles — yes, the Orioles — are about to win free agency
Baltimore has already committed $195 million to four free agents — Pete Alonso, Ryan Helsley, Zach Eflin and Leody Taveras — ranking sixth in spending thus far. But general manager Mike Elias, entering the final year of his contract, has one more haymaker left: Framber Valdez.
With Ranger Suárez landing $130 million over five years in Boston, Valdez projects to get around six years and $180 million — a deal that would vault the O’s past the Dodgers and Blue Jays as baseball’s top free agent spenders. — Paul Hembekides
The Red Sox will add at least one more bat — because they really have to, right?
Because to not do so would be wild, right? The Red Sox devoted a lot of resources this winter to bolstering their pitching quality and depth, from the trade of Sonny Gray to the $130 million signing of Ranger Suarez. But they’ve been stuck in place with their every-day lineup, adding Willson Contreras before being surprised by the Cubs’ deal with Alex Bregman.
After Roman Anthony got hurt at the end of 2025, the Red Sox looked two bats short — their series against the Yankees was like a middleweight boxer facing a heavyweight — and if Boston’s lineup isn’t upgraded, they will be incredibly reliant on Anthony and Contreras, in a division that includes Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Judge, Junior Caminero, Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson. — Buster Olney
A.J. Preller and the San Diego Padres will do something big
Dating back to the winter meetings, one topic has continually come up in conversations with agents and executives throughout the industry: Preller, the Padres’ frenetic general manager, is busy. His free agent and trade conversations ran the gamut, as they normally do, but it has yet to produce anything substantive.
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The Padres brought back Michael King, but their rotation needs more help. They signed Korean infielder Sung-Mun Song, but they need another bat or two.
At some point, a big move is coming. What that looks like is anybody’s guess, but with the Padres’ championship window closing tighter with each passing year, Preller isn’t about to just let the Dodgers run away with another division title and create more separation from the rest of the National League. It doesn’t matter if money is tight or if his system is dried up; he’ll find a way to add impact talent, because it’s what he does and, at times to a fault, it’s what he covets. — Alden Gonzalez
Trades on the horizon
The New York Yankees will trade Jasson Dominguez before the start of spring training.
Bellinger re-signing with New York was great news for just about everyone associated with the organization except for Dominguez. The former can’t-miss prospect was previously projected to start in left field for the Yankees. Now that job belongs to Bellinger, dislodging Dominguez from an every-day role.
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The switch-hitting Dominguez’s speed and ability to hit left-handed against right-handed pitching could make him an asset off the bench. And he turns 23 in February. But he’s a poor defender — the Yankees clearly don’t believe he’s a big league center fielder and he struggled mightily in left last season — and he hasn’t proved he can hit right-handed in the majors. The Yankees could use him as part of a trade to bolster another area — perhaps pitching help or a right-handed-hitting catcher or outfielder.
The Martian is talented, but he could land somewhere else very soon. — Jorge Castillo
Brendan Donovan will be traded to the San Francisco Giants
The Giants need a second baseman and the Cardinals are trading any hitter within sniffing distance of age 30. It’s a perfect match, albeit less enthralling than when the Cardinals and Giants swapped Rogers Hornsby and Frankie Frisch.
The Giants are even a good team to paper over Donovan’s career platoon weakness against lefties. You pair his career .812 OPS against righties with Tyler Fitzgerald’s .841 OPS against lefties and you’ve got a strong keystone combination. The Cardinals could then turn the position over to Thomas Saggese and clear a little runway for JJ Wetherholt’s imminent arrival. — Bradford Doolittle
New York Mets trade Brett Baty to the Seattle Mariners for Jurrangelo Cijntje and Matt Brash
With the Bichette signing, Baty has been pushed off third base in New York. He could slide to first base or DH, but the Mets have Jorge Polanco and Mark Vientos for those positions. Instead, look for David Stearns to use Baty to help replenish his farm system after the trades for Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert Jr. Cijntje is the hard-throwing switch-pitcher the Mariners drafted in the first round in 2024. He needs more seasoning but is a potential power arm for the rotation. Brash provides some needed bullpen depth.
The Mariners have been mentioned in the Donovan trade talks, but Baty is a better fit, with light-hitting Ben Williamson currently the projected starter at third base. Baty is still pre-arb, so is a perfect payroll fit, and comes with four years of team control while coming off a 3.1-WAR season that saw much improved defense. Baty allows top prospect Colt Emerson more time in the minors before replacing J.P. Crawford at shortstop in 2027. And even after trading Cijntje, the Mariners would still have two top-100 pitching prospects in Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan. — David Schoenfield
Nick Castellanos will get traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates….with the Philadelphia Phillies eating most of the money
The Pirates still need hitting, right? And Castellanos still needs a new home. How about an in-state swap with the big-spending Phillies picking up most of the contract — say $15 million of the $20 million owed to Castellanos in 2026. The Pirates don’t even have to send anyone back in the deal. Just give them his money and watch Castellanos light up PNC Park, proving all the naysayers wrong. — Jesse Rogers
Big signings on the way
Justin Verlander returns to the Detroit Tigers
Verlander, the second pick in the 2004 MLB draft by the Tigers, won 183 games over 13 years for Detroit. Last season, he won four games for the Giants, but his 1.2 WAR wasn’t so bad, in context. Only four Tigers pitchers earned more WAR (Skubal, Reese Olson, Will Vest, Casey Mize).
The Tigers surely would surely make room in their rotation for this future Hall of Famer, who not only offers veteran leadership to a team looking for its third consecutive playoff berth, but warrants inclusion based on on-field performance. — Eric Karabell
The Pittsburgh Pirates sign 3B Eugenio Suarez.
I’m already on board for a Pirates-led National League Central this year, and what better way for them to make a push in that direction than to address their severe power shortage with one of the best power hitters still on the free agent market? Suarez might accept a shorter deal with higher AAV and/or a post-2026 opt-out — think two years, $42 million — and he would balance what’s currently a lefty-heavy Pirates lineup that is also thin on the left side of the infield. — Tristan Cockcroft
