Carroll hits 35 homers? Soderstrom hits 50? Don’t be surprised

Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!

Outstanding Arizona Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2023 when he hit .285 with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases. Fantasy managers coveted him heading into 2024. Then he struggled for months, ending up hitting just .231 with 35 steals — certainly a disappointment. Carroll, 24, is one of the fastest players in the sport, as evidenced by his 24 triples over the past two seasons. We enjoy his modest power, but certainly he is not known for it.

Don’t be surprised… if Carroll continues his assault on right-handed pitching and delivers 35 home runs

Yeah, it remains early (I guess we get to say that for all of April, right?), but Carroll revamped his batting stance in Spring Training, continuing to tweak his hand position as he tries to combat how pitchers attack him and hit baseballs harder, higher and much further than ever before. Imagine that, a player seeing what is wrong and making adjustments. The numbers, as they say, aren’t lying.

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Most ignore the constant tinkering of batting stances and almost everything from the mostly irrelevant March preseason games. In Carroll’s case, after a few weeks, we have actionable statistical changes! Those in points formats still love it, obviously, but in a roto/categories league, if you secured Carroll with a second-round pick, you probably banked on myriad stolen bases, in combination with some power.

Instead, Carroll enters Thursday’s action slugging .699 with six home runs, while he has attempted only one stolen base (and that came just this past weekend).

Again, in points leagues, you may not care how a player accumulates his value, because there is only one big number at the end. Nobody can legitimately complain about a top-10 hitter, as Carroll hits .329 through 83 PA, but is he really on his way to 30-plus home runs for the first time while caring little about his valuable running game? Some fellows curtail their running game in an effort to stay healthy. I don’t think that’s the case here. Perhaps we should look at what happened in his inconsistent 2024 as a harbinger.

Last season, Carroll hit only two home runs over the first three months. Pitchers are always adjusting to players, and they overpowered the top rookie with inner-plate fastballs. Carroll finished July hitting a sad .215 with just eight total homers. Then, with little notice, Carroll slugged .700 and whacked 11 home runs in August, attempting only three steals. He told reporters he was adjusting his stance to create a more effective bat path. Did you pay attention?

Carroll reverted to his typical ways in September, hitting three home runs with 13 steals in 15 chances. OK, so who is this guy? Ichiro Suzuki watchers always said the Japanese star could hit for power if he so desired. Carroll, listed at 5-foot-10, perhaps 170 pounds, proved last August and this April that he can hit for power. The question is whether or not he can hit for power while also stealing bases consistently? For our purposes, why can’t we have both?

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It is notable that Carroll, batting .375 with a 1.361 OPS and all his home runs versus right-handed pitching, is suddenly among the league leaders in Barrels. His exit velocity, also below average during his first two seasons, is now better than 96 mph. He has increased his launch angle to 15 degrees, pulling the ball nearly 50% of the time, with many more line drives and fewer ground balls. This is all good news, but it appears Carroll is trying to hit for power. He isn’t selling out for it, as his walk and strikeout rates remain close to his norm, but he is chasing more pitches. Is all this sustainable?

Perhaps Carroll suddenly, without warning, alters his approach again tomorrow, and decides to steal double-digit bases over the next few weeks. Does it matter? Few could complain if Carroll hits better than .300 with more than 30 home runs, something only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Marcell Ozuna, Yordan Alvarez and Bobby Witt Jr. accomplished last season. But would 35 homers and say, 12 stolen bases, be ideal? Probably not for roto investors. Still, let’s remain positive. Carroll can clearly be a 30/30 player if he desires. Let’s hope he does desire it.

Don’t be surprised… if when I predicted Brent Rooker would hit 50 home runs, I really meant his Athletics teammate Tyler Soderstrom

OK, so we get no takebacks here. Perhaps both Rooker and Soderstrom can sail past 40 home runs. Wouldn’t that be nice? While it is way too soon to panic on Rooker, who launched 69 home runs over the past two seasons and figured to improve even more after going from an extreme home pitcher’s ballpark to a minor league launching pad, let’s focus on Soderstrom. Freed up from the demands of playing catcher, Soderstrom, 23, looks like a legit power hitter leading the league in home runs — and most of the power has come away from Sacramento.

Soderstrom hit just .233 for the Athletics last season, but with nine home runs over 213 PA. Fantasy managers craved the catcher eligibility, but Soderstrom lost that for this year. It seems like a solid tradeoff. Soderstrom’s metrics for exit velocity and Barrels were positive last season. They are elite today. Soderstrom, much like Carroll, isn’t hitting baseballs to all fields as much. He’s pulling the ball nearly 50% of the time. His contact rate is way up. This looks like a 40-HR fellow. Perhaps the Athletics have a pair of them, which is also another way of saying not to give up on Rooker, too.

Don’t be surprised… if now is a decent time to trade Cincinnati Reds RHP Hunter Greene

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Greene, 25 and in his fourth MLB season, posted a 2.75 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 26 starts last season, continuing to trade in some fastball velocity and swing-and-mess tendencies along the way. Greene made only seven starts after the All-Star break, winning three of them with a 1.13 ERA and an 0.75 WHIP before succumbing to the dreaded elbow soreness. Fantasy managers dreamed of Greene making 30 starts and becoming a top-five pitcher. Perhaps it is no longer a dream.

One doesn’t need supreme optimism for this his case to be made, but in addition to concerns about durability (Greene made only 24, 22 and 26 starts in his first three seasons), we must ask if Greene continues to enjoy unsustainable luck. While he fell short of qualifying for the ERA title last season, his .237 BABIP tied for third among pitchers with at least 150 IP. Only Houston Astros RHP Ronel Blanco and Seattle Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert posted a lower BABIP.

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Through four outings in which he faced two sputtering offenses (Pirates, Rangers) and a good one twice (the Giants), Greene’s BABIP is even lower today, at .175. That ranks third in baseball. Nobody should believe Greene will finish with an 0.98 ERA, an 0.58 WHIP, and a nearly non-existent home run rate. That should give you every reason to float his name in fantasy trade talks and see what you can get, doesn’t it? His next two outings are at Baltimore and in Denver against the Rockies. Chances are his ERA will rise quickly.

I want to believe Greene is one of the top-10 starting pitchers in baseball, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t worth trading for a proven, but currently struggling starter whose value should only improve (high-ERA fellows such as San Diego Padres RHP Dylan Cease, Astros LHP Framber Valdez) plus other goodies. Or trade him for the now-healthy Spencer Strider of the Atlanta Braves. Everyone is capable of a trade in fantasy baseball.

Along with Greene, Tampa Bay Rays RHP Shane Baz, Philadelphia Phillies LHP Jesus Luzardo, Kansas City Royals LHP Kris Bubic and Texas Rangers RHP Tyler Mahle may each continue their great starts, but each also brings injury concerns. Now is a wise time to explore trades.