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Fantasy baseball: Finding the next hidden breakout aces

May 29, 2025
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May 28, 2025, 12:21 PM ET

An ace can be quite handy — and, often, essential — to have on a fantasy team.

This realization probably struck many who roster Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, the American League’s defending Cy Young Award winner, and were following along with his Sunday masterpiece against the Cleveland Guardians. Skubal pitched his first career complete game, a two-hit shutout that qualified for “Maddux” status (a complete-game shutout in fewer than 100 pitches), generating 13 strikeouts and 26 swings-and-misses while throwing his final pitch clocked at 102.6 mph.

It was especially true for this columnist, for whom Skubal has been the centerpiece on a key keeper league team. That team underwent an arduous 2020-22 rebuild and is now back at the peak point of its contention curve. Considering my difficulty in rostering quality, top-shelf pitching leading into and during my rebuild — partially due to bad luck — it feels like no coincidence that, with Skubal now in tow, my team is making a charge back toward a championship.

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But, taking a look back at that rebuilding stage, as well as where Skubal’s career stood at the time, he’s as illustrative as any pitcher of this generation of the value of getting ahead of the game in acquiring yourself an ace. After all, Skubal missed 11 months across 2022-23 due to flexor tendon surgery, and he wasn’t nearly the velocity king he is today — he had thrown only 22 total fastballs 98-plus mph through 2023, yet he has thrown 28% of all of his fastballs at least that hard since.

He was a chance taken that worked out, and he won’t be the final such example. Today, we all know about the likes of Skubal, Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler — the pitchers who can make a difference for your team all by themselves. Now, let’s flash forward in time, and find tomorrow’s similar such fantasy aces.

To clarify, each of the pitchers listed below has a ceiling noticeably above his current fantasy market value. Some of them, in fact, are either prospects or pitchers recovering from injury, making them scarcely rostered. Some warrant standard ESPN attention; others are better left to only leagues in the short term. Whatever the case, they’re names to tuck away as you seek to find your “next Skubal.”

Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves: A pitcher I’ve written about frequently on these pages, Schwellenbach might also be the most likely future ace/perennial Cy Young contender among those not yet perceived to be so. He gives me a lot of Jacob deGrom reminders, from his college-shortstop-turned-pitcher transition, to his not making the top tiers of any prospect ranking list as he scaled the minor league ranks, to his diverse, six-pitch repertoire. Is it a stretch to liken Schwellenbach’s career path to deGrom’s? Yes, yes it is. But among current pitchers, his strengths in making quick adjustments give him a real chance to forge a similar path.

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies have been supremely conservative with his recovery from July 2023 Tommy John surgery, but his arrival in the City of Brotherly Love is inching ever closer. Painter has already thrown three pitches as fast as 100 mph across his seven minor league starts, has averaged 96.6 mph with his four-seam fastball overall, and has struck out 15-of-51 hitters he has faced in three outings for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Whether he’s ticketed for the rotation or bullpen will surely be a matter of debate over the next month-plus, but whether it’s during the second half of 2025 or sometime in 2026-27, Painter profiles as one of fantasy’s next most likely top-10 positional prospects.

The only thing that’s prevented Hunter Greene from being a fantasy ace is his lack of durability so far in the bigs. Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds: He could already be regarded a fantasy ace of sorts, but the final obstacle holding him back from future Cy Youngs is health. Greene has already made five trips to the injured list in his four-year big league career, and he’s only one start removed from his most recent stint due to a groin strain. It’s a leap of faith to assume that’ll be his final absence of 2025, but he has exhibited extraordinary, front-of-rotation stuff across the past 13 calendar months and is showing significant improvement in terms of his walk, zone and first pitch strike rates as well as a big spike in average fastball velocity. If you’re willing to take that chance, Greene fits the “last call” description among trade targets.

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers: Not every pitcher clicks initially at the big-league level, and it’s not like Al’s kid has had extensive exposure, either. Despite his ghastly results early in his minor league career, as well as in his 2024 debut with the Rangers, Leiter at times exhibits the front-of-rotation stuff that earned him the No. 2 overall selection in the 2021 draft, including a 97-mph fastball that can touch 100 and a slider that can be downright filthy when he commands it well. He’s the future-ace prospect who might come at among the deepest discounts of any name on this list, but if he keeps showing the kind of incremental progress he did during spring training and across his past three starts, he might be due for a big step forward by mid-year.

Eury Perez, Miami Marlins: He’s more of a 2026 speculative add than one destined to dominate this summer, but considering how well he has been throwing during his rehabilitation assignment while recovering from Tommy John surgery, he could provide some value to fantasy teams, even in standard leagues. Perez makes the cut, because, when healthy, he has top-shelf, downright filthy stuff. He has struck out 35.4% of all the minor league hitters he has faced (28.9% in the majors) and, in addition to the 97.5-mph average fastball he threw in 2023, he generated whiffs more than 45% of the time on all three of his other offerings (slider, curveball and changeup). Perez should be ready to join the Marlins in the next 2-3 weeks, making him a wise speculative stash right now.

Additional pitchers to consider: Bubba Chandler and Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates; Gavin Williams, Guardians; Jesus Luzardo, Phillies; Noah Schultz, Chicago White Sox.



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