There’s no better place on a fantasy baseball team from which to find big value than from your pitching staff — and specifically your later picks.
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Take last year’s returns, for example. Among the 50 most productive undrafted players in ESPN leagues, 33 were pitchers (14 starters and 19 relievers), while among the 50 best-performing players who also exceeded their preseason ADP (average draft position) by more than 100 ranking spots, 25 were pitchers (19 starters and six relievers). Spending a post-Round 10 pick on a starting pitcher last season might’ve netted you a Cristopher Sanchez, Bryan Woo or Carlos Rodon, while nine of the top 21 scoring fantasy pitchers exceeded their ADPs by more than 100 ranking slots.
So how, then, might fantasy managers unearth this hidden pitching value, drafting the proverbial Sanchez, Woo or Rodon of 2026? My preferred method is to identify pitchers with potentially elite skill sets, but whose surface statistics — “back of the baseball card” measures such as wins and ERA — belied their true talent. These are my annual “Kings of Command,” pitchers who meet a specific set of statistical benchmarks reflecting excellence in the command department.
Kings of Command baseline numbers
Pitchers who qualify for inclusion exceeded the MLB averages, listed below, in all of the following categories during the 2025 major league season. Starting pitchers must have faced at least 200 batters, and relief pitchers must have faced at least 100 batters, while serving in either role.
Starting pitchers
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 11.7% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 62.6% or more
Command rate (K’s per walk, or K/BB): 2.80 or more
Relief pitchers
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 12.6% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 61.1% of more
Command rate (K’s per walk, or K/BB): 2.46 or more
Put-away rate (K’s per 2-strike count): 19.6% or more
Using those thresholds, 82 pitchers (44 starters and 37 relievers and one swingman) met all of those criteria in either role. Among them were AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, AL Reliever of the Year Aroldis Chapman, four of the top five starting pitchers in terms of fantasy points and two of the top three relief pitchers in terms of fantasy points.
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There are nine qualifiers, however, who weren’t anywhere near as celebrated as the Skubal, Sanchez or Garrett Crochet. That’s not to place any of them on an equal — or even next-level-down — footing as those three, but each possesses under-appreciated skills while performing statistically beneath our radar. Each is a potential bargain in fantasy drafts, and each might be a mere minor tweak or adjustment to his pitch repertoire, his stance on the pitching rubber, better fortune on batted balls, or an expanded team opportunity away from a breakthrough.
Rebound-candidate qualifiers: Before we get to our official list, let’s highlight three pitchers who endured disappointing campaigns yet still met our qualifications — Logan Gilbert, Sonny Gray and George Kirby. Each of them saw their fantasy point total last season decline by 174, 146 and 49 compared to their 2024 outputs and are, therefore, strong bounce-back bets for 2026
The following “Kings of Command” are listed in alphabetical order, along with their 2025 Player Rater finishes and fantasy point totals using ESPN’s standard scoring, as well as an examination of what might fuel a step forward for each.
Ben Brown, Chicago Cubs2025 Player Rater: SP197, RP287, 789th overall2025 fantasy point total: 148 (SP135, RP127)
His strengths: He’s the rare pitcher who meets the qualifications as both a starter and reliever. Brown has an elite, whiff-generating curveball (often classified a knuckle-curve), which among curveballs specifically has resulted in MLB’s sixth-most swing-and-misses over the past two seasons combined (245). Unfortunately, it has been his only plus-pitch at this level, as he has a hittable four-seam fastball that averaged 96 mph but can touch 98 and a changeup he uses sparingly against lefties. Brown’s career highlight to date was a seven-inning no-hit outing against the Milwaukee Brewers on May 28, 2024, in his fifth MLB start.
How he could break out: Brown is experimenting with a sinker this spring, signaling his commitment to a necessary improvement of his repertoire, although adding a pitch to neutralize left-handed hitters would go much further toward a prospective breakthrough. A role as a short reliever, where he could dial up his fastball velocity by a notch or two, might be his best path to big-league success. His best-case scenario has him pushing for save chances before year’s end.
Mike Burrows, Houston Astros2025 Player Rater: SP122, 515th overall2025 fantasy point total: 181 (SP116)
His strengths: Burrows broke into the Pittsburgh Pirates rotation last May and rode his 95.5-mph, four-seam fastball and plus-changeup to a 3.27 ERA and a 25.1% strikeout rate over 10 starts and three relief appearances in the season’s second half. That changeup was the highlight, as he generated 50 out of his 97 strikeouts with that pitch alone. Unfortunately, the Pirates were exceedingly conservative with Burrows’ workload (as they were with many of their young starters) and he threw at least 80 pitches in only six out of his 19 starts. He was sent to the Astros as part of December’s three-team trade with the Tampa Bay Rays that netted the Pirates Brandon Lowe.
How he could break out: Burrows has been throwing more sinkers so far this spring, which could help rein in the .439 slugging percentage and 3.9% HR rate he surrendered to right-handed hitters. Plus, his whiff rate is up slightly as well. The Astros seem likely to install him in their season-opening rotation, and they’ve had success in tinkering with ex-Pirates pitchers before (see: Gerrit Cole and Joe Musgrove).
Griffin Jax, Rays2025 Player Rater: RP82, 265th overall2025 fantasy point total: 194 (RP72)
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His strengths: Between his sweeper and changeup, Jax has positively filthy stuff, as both pitches have generated at least a 45% whiff rate in both of the past two seasons and been responsible for 149 out of his 194 strikeouts during that time. Among qualified relievers from 2024-25, he had the second-best xFIP (2.25), the third-best K/BB ratio (5.49) and the sixth-most holds (52) — plus 10 saves to go along with them. I’m of the opinion that Jax’s talent exceeds that of any other pitcher in the current Rays bullpen.
How he could break out: Better luck, and Rays management trusting a singular reliever in the closer role, as they did with similarly deserving candidates in 2012 (Fernando Rodney), 2017 (Alex Colome) and, yes, last year (Pete Fairbanks). Jax’s 1.85 differential between his ERA (4.36) and FIP (2.51) last season was the second-widest in the majors behind only Devin Williams’ 2.11, and he had the highest BABIP (.362) among qualified relievers. That latter number is bound to correct itself in 2026.
Sean Manaea, New York Mets2025 Player Rater: SP179, 729th overall2025 fantasy point total: 103 (SP169)
His strengths: An oblique strain he suffered during spring training cost him the first three-plus months of last season, and Manaea couldn’t recapture his late-2024 magic following his return. His ERA checked in at a career-worst 5.64 over 12 starts and three relief appearances. That said, he posted the best strikeout rate (28.5%) and the second-best walk rate (4.6%) of his career. He subsequently spent the winter working with Tread Athletics to recapture the arm slot from which he experienced his 2024 success. Manaea has reintroduced his sinker and cutter, two of his better-graded pitches from that year, thus far in spring-training action.
How he could break out: It’s difficult to envision Manaea rebounding if his fastball velocity doesn’t significantly improve from his 88.6 mph average during his first spring training start, as he hasn’t placed below 91 mph with the pitch in any season since 2020 — his 2024 number was 92.2. He’s among the most critical pitchers to track throughout March, as a full return of his 2024 delivery, release point and pitch effectiveness would most support a bounce-back.
Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins2025 Player Rater: SP205, 819th overall2025 fantasy point total: 108 (SP166)
His strengths: He has a 5.92 ERA through his first 25 career MLB starts that screams, “Stay away!” But Matthews’ repertoire, while not tippy-top-shelf elite, has enough effectiveness and variation to spark much intrigue. He averaged 96.5 mph with his four-seam fastball and generated 50 K’s and a 38.5% whiff rate with his slider last season. Beyond that, he adds a cutter, changeup, curveball and sinker to give himself much depth in pitch selection. Matthews’ control is also superb, as his 4.8% walk rate at all professional levels over the past two years ranks seventh best among all pitchers with at least as many as his 50 combined starts.
How he could break out: Matthews’ command within the strike zone is severely lacking, as his .362 BAA and .979 OPS allowed on those pitches in the past two seasons were second worst among pitchers with at least 25 starts. Lefties, in particular, hammered him for a .406 BAA and 9.1% HR rate there. But even slightly better luck — he has a career FIP 1.51 runs lower than his ERA — might be enough to vault his ceiling into the positional top 40.
Max Meyer, Miami Marlins2025 Player Rater: SP186, 748th overall2025 fantasy point total: 98 (SP176)
His strengths: Meyer was pitching as effectively as he had at any point in his MLB career before he had June hip surgery, as he was sporting a 42.4% whiff rate with his slider, and a 49.7% ground-ball rate with all his pitches. Meyer has also looked good in his first two spring starts, generating 37.5% whiff (his career number is 25.0%) and 12.5% hard-hit rates (37.0%). Entering his 2022 debut year, he was Kiley McDaniels’ No. 4-ranked pitcher (behind Grayson Rodriguez, Shane Baz and Hunter Greene), and he’s a near-certainty to begin the season in the Marlins rotation, calling their pitcher-friendly environment his home.
How he could break out: Health, health, health. In addition to the hip surgery, Meyer has a Tommy John surgery (August 2022) and shoulder bursitis (September 2024) on his résumé. Additionally, an MLB-leading (among pitchers with at least 25 starts) 14.0% HR/FB rate since his debut must be pointed out, considering his home environment and overall ground-ball lean. Meyer is high-risk but has multiple paths to fantasy relevancy.
Bailey Ober, Twins2025 Player Rater: SP142, 593rd overall2025 fantasy point total: 197 (SP101)
His strengths: A top-20 fantasy starting pitcher two seasons ago, Ober’s fastball velocity collapsed last season as he went from averaging 91.7 mph in 2024 to a career-low 90.3. This resulted in his surrendering a 4.8% HR rate and a .344 wOBA, fifth and seventh worst among pitchers with at least 25 starts. Nevertheless, he possesses some of the best control of anyone in baseball, as his 5.3% walk rate across his five MLB seasons ranks sixth best among pitchers with at least 75 starts. Ober’s called strike rate within the zone also places in the 89th percentile over that time.
How he could break out: Ober desperately needs to recapture that lost fastball velocity in order to succeed, and his spring debut, during which it averaged only 89.9 mph, rekindled those concerns. Without that, his fantasy utility will likely hover in the streaming department, useful only against the weakest offenses or in the most extreme pitcher-friendly ballparks.
Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers2025 Player Rater: SP59, 281st overall2025 fantasy point total: 198 (SP100)
His strengths: Sheehan’s recovery from May 2024 Tommy John surgery couldn’t have gone much more spectacularly. From his permanent arrival back into the Dodgers rotation on July 6 forward, he scored the 17th-most fantasy points among all pitchers (185), with a 33.3% whiff rate that led the majors among pitchers with at least as many as his 69⅓ IP. Sheehan’s slider is a thing of beauty, as he had a 43.6% whiff rate, a .414 OPS allowed and a 25.9% hard-hit rate allowed against it, all of which placed in the 90th percentile or better among pitchers who worked as much as he did.
How he could break out: The Dodgers’ trust to afford him a full year’s workload would do the most to fuel a Sheehan emergence, perhaps even among the top-25 fantasy starting pitchers. That said, his ongoing recovery from the surgery — note his 93 combined innings between the majors and minors last season and the team’s overall pitching depth — make it likely that 150 IP would be a regular-season cap.
Kirby Yates, Los Angeles Angels2025 Player Rater: RP130, 415th overall2025 fantasy point total: 120 (RP156)
His strengths: Coming off one of the most unexpectedly excellent relief seasons in baseball history — his 2024 was one of only 16 seasons in history of at least 30 saves with a sub-1.25 ERA — Yates got off to a similarly strong start to 2025, posting a 2.95 ERA, a 41.3% strikeout rate and eight holds over his first 21 appearances for the Dodgers. Hamstring and back issues sidetracked his season thereafter, as he had a 7.04 ERA and surrendered seven homers over his final 29 games. When healthy, Yates’ splitter can be one of the best K-generating pitches in the game.
How he could break out: Yates’ fastball dipped in velocity to a career-low 92.8 mph last season and, as has been the case for many fastball/splitter pitchers over the years, even the slightest bit of recovery in that department would do wonders to make it harder for hitters to sit on his splitter. He’s in the mix for the Angels’ closer role and, for fantasy purposes, winning that job outright would do the most for his boosting his statistical profile.
