Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!
New Chicago Cubs OF Kyle Tucker hit 30 home runs in both of his first two full seasons with the Houston Astros. Then he delivered his best numbers in 2023, hitting .284 with 29 blasts, 112 RBI and 30 stolen bases. Tucker, 26, wasn’t the No. 1 fantasy baseball option that season, but he came close.
Don’t be surprised… if Tucker finishes 2025 as the No. 1 fantasy option
Tucker homered among his three hits and stole two bases in Tuesday’s 11-10 comeback victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers. On Wednesday, he stole another base. Tucker currently boasts seven home runs, 25 RBI, seven steals and 25 runs over his first 26 games with the Cubs. He is hitting .314 with a 1.060 OPS and five more walks than strikeouts. This looks like one of the best hitters in the game, leading everyone (hitters and pitchers) in ESPN fantasy points and second only to New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge on the roto/categories-oriented Player Rater.
Start a free fantasy baseball league
The 2025 fantasy baseball season is here! Get the gang back together, or start a brand new tradition.Start or reactivate a league >>
Tucker missed half of last season due to a shin fracture (hardly a recurring injury to worry about long-term), and he hit .289 with 23 home runs and 11 steals during the 78 games in which he played. Double those numbers and wow — we see a slugger in his prime. Judge is still great as well, hitting a BABIP-fueled .415, and Dodgers DH/SP Shohei Ohtani is still doing Ohtani-like things, with six homers, five steals and the pending lure of pitching, but Tucker long established himself as a top-10 fantasy option. Now it may be time for him to lead the pack.
One more thing about Tucker and the Cubs: They enter Thursday at 16-10, having faced the Dodgers (7 times!), Arizona Diamondbacks (7 times), San Diego Padres (6 times) and Texas Rangers (3 times). The Cubs lead the league in runs per game and OPS. Just wait until Tucker (a pending free agent after the season) and his pals start facing the rest of the league, with a wonderful stretch in May against the Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox, the Marlins again, then the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies. I like the underdog Milwaukee Brewers, but don’t be surprised if the Cubs run away with the NL Central by July and end up winning more games than the Dodgers.
Don’t be surprised… if New York Mets 1B Pete Alonso hits for a higher batting average than OF Juan Soto
Alonso enters Thursday hitting .341 with a 1.121 OPS. He entered the season as a career .249 hitter with an .854 OPS. It is clear Alonso, 30, isn’t going to hit .341 all season long and Soto should improve on his current .233 mark, but by how much? Soto’s relatively slow start is not all about BABIP. He’s hitting many more ground balls, chasing pitches outside the strike zone and complaining about lineup protection. Soto hit only .242 for the Padres/Nationals in 2022, though everyone forgets that. OK, so he should hit closer to .280, but he wouldn’t be the first hitter to struggle a bit after signing a long-term contract.
Playoff Hockey Challenge
Pick the winners and crown your Stanley Cup champion! Create A Bracket
Focus on Alonso here, for he has made some real changes at the plate. First, we notice his 83.5% contact rate. It was 71.7% last season. His strikeout rate is way down, he is drawing more walks, and ground balls have turned into line drives. Alonso connected with a tough, two-strike pitch in the bottom of the zone for a game-tying, 10th-inning double on Wednesday — a pitch he would have been more likely to miss in past seasons. This season, he is protecting the plate better, and it shows.
Alonso is not a fast man, but he is known for hitting baseballs hard and far, having smacked 53 home runs as a rookie, and surpassing 40 blasts in two other seasons. This season, he is doing everything other than launching home runs better. He is more complete, with a .346 expected batting average. Can it continue? I wouldn’t project Alonso to hit .240 from here on out. It should be more like .275 with 35 home runs. Will Soto hit .275 over the final five months? This may be an interesting race.
Don’t be surprised … if Philadelphia Phillies RHP Aaron Nola ends up as a top-25 fantasy hurler
Well, of course this one was coming. Nola is among the most-dropped starting pitchers because he is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. Last season, he won 14 games with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, and his 197 strikeouts were 13th-most in baseball. He is arguably the most durable starting pitcher since 2017 and, while he gives up home runs and his career 3.75 ERA isn’t awesome, Nola is dependable and offers volume. Good innings matter, even if they are seldom great ones.
Only four qualified starting pitchers boast a higher BABIP than Nola’s .364 mark, and we really could just end the section here. He’s had bad luck. So has Atlanta Braves LHP Chris Sale, Padres RHP Dylan Cease and myriad others. Here is a sample of excellent starters who entered May 2024 with an ERA on the wrong side of 4.80, whether BABIP-infused or not: Garrett Crochet, Michael King, Pablo Lopez. They all rebounded. It happens.
Editor’s Picks
1 Related
Nola has some reduced fastball velocity, but that doesn’t appear to be the problem. He is among the league leaders in lowest exit velocity, fewest Barrels and, despite having permitted six home runs, ground ball rate. Nola may not pitch to a 3.75 ERA the rest of the season, but it is a lot more likely than a 6.43 mark. Now is the time to go get Nola, not to dump him for nothing and permit a leaguemate to enjoy the good stuff. (Also don’t drop Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara, Cleveland Guardians RHP Tanner Bibee, Kansas City Royals RHP Seth Lugo or Diamondbacks RHP Zach Gallen, either.)
One more thing: Washington Nationals LHP MacKenzie Gore has a .397 BABIP, third-highest among qualifiers. Last April, his .392 BABIP also was the third-highest rate. He went on to have a fine season. (In 2023, his April BABIP was a more typical .293.) Stuff just happens in April, I guess.
Don’t be surprised … if Yankees OF Jasson Dominguez struggles to keep a full-time role
Dominguez, 22, a massive-hype international signing when he was 16, was a notable top prospect for good reason, as he offers a strong combination of power, speed and the ability to draw walks. Who wouldn’t want that? Dominguez debuted in 2023, recovered from Tommy John surgery and everyone expected a big 2025 season — perhaps even myriad Rookie of the Year votes. It may happen. It may not.
Fantasy managers have begun to move on from “The Martian” in ESPN’s shallow standard format, where he is rostered in only 25% of leagues. However, even in typical deeper formats with five outfielders, he may not be such a great investment in 2025.
NBA Playoff Challenge
Pick the winners and crown your NBA champion! Create A Bracket
Several things jump out when regularly watching Dominguez, things that prospect experts may not have expected. A switch-hitter, Dominguez looks lost versus left-handed pitching. OK, so he has only 187 career PA as a big leaguer, but he is 6-for-54 (.111, and a .428 OPS, albeit with a .177 BABIP) against lefties. Versus right-handers, Dominguez has all eight of his home runs, though still a high strikeout rate. This season, Dominguez is striking out at a 32.2% clip, seventh-highest among qualifiers. He walks, too, but pitchers pepper him with off-speed stuff, and it works. Overall, it is low exit velocity (87.5 mph) and hard-hit rate, few Barrels, and a .222 expected batting average.
It’s far too early to give up on Dominguez in any league with five outfield spots, but it sure doesn’t look like he will make enough contact to hit for even a .250 batting average. He must improve versus lefties, or the Yankees will need to find a platoon partner. As it is, rejuvenated OF Trent Grisham deserves to play, and there is little comparison between the two defensively. Dominguez looked awful in center field last season, which cost him playing time, and he hasn’t been better in left field in 2025. Give Dominguez 500 PA and he may hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases, but he may not get to 500 PA without improvement with both plate discipline and defense.
