With less than a week remaining until the start of the 2025 MLB playoffs, our baseball insiders are ready to break down the biggest questions, latest news and notable October buzz across the industry — even before the final 12-team postseason field is set.
What is the boldest prediction we’ve heard from an MLB exec? How confident — or concerned — should fans of last year’s World Series participants, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, be? Will the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers turn stellar regular seasons into deep playoff runs? And which under-the-radar players and teams are scouts raving about? Here’s the latest intel our MLB experts are hearing as Jeff Passan, Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers, Jorge Castillo and Alden Gonzalez empty their notebooks.
What is the boldest prediction you’ve heard from an MLB exec or scout?
Passan: The Seattle Mariners are going to win the World Series. Perhaps at this point that does not register as bold, but let’s not forget the Mariners are 49 years into their existence and they’ve yet to make a World Series, let alone win one.
Three weeks ago, this would have been laughable, as Seattle had lost 15 of 21 and found itself 3½ games behind Houston. Now, the Mariners have a three-game cushion, plus the tiebreaker in the AL West, and are in possession of a first-round bye.
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The home-field advantage would be decidedly advantageous to the Mariners, who are 48-27 at home. Lining up their excellent front-line starting pitching and giving some rest to well-worked regulars — especially Cal Raleigh — could do the Mariners good. And with the highest-scoring offense in the big leagues in September and a bullpen that has some of the best stuff in baseball, the Mariners have the ingredients to conquer a wide-open AL and hang with the star-studded rosters in the NL.
Olney: We always hear how the bullpen and bench are difference-makers in the postseason, and one evaluator sees a clear delineation between the Padres’ bullpen and the rest of the field. The Mariners’ have played well down the stretch, but their relief corps is taxed; the Dodgers will be MacGyvering to make their bullpen rubble work; the Phillies will be without Jose Alvarado; the Yankees’ group can be wildly inconsistent. The San Diego bullpen, on the other hand, is solid, even without Jason Adam.
Is that evaluator, then, ready to say the Padres will win the World Series, or even the National League? “Are you f—ing kidding me?” he replied. “I don’t think we can count anybody out this year. Even the Tigers — they’ve got [Tarik] Skubal.”
How much faith does the industry have in the Blue Jays and Brewers turning potential No. 1 seeds into World Series appearances?
Olney: The feedback I’m getting is that execs see reasonable paths through October for all of the contenders with perhaps the exception of the Astros, who are wrecked by injuries to Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena and Josh Hader.
As the case is made for the Blue Jays and Brewers, there is a consistent theme: these are teams that get guys on base, put the ball in play and pressure defenses. One evaluator said: “The Brewers just don’t play bad games — they might lose, but they are in every game.”
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Rogers: There’s belief in both teams, but nobody is ready to declare either the favorite even as a potential top seed. Bo Bichette’s injury came up in conversation as a detriment to the Blue Jays’ chances, and the latest pitching injuries were reasons to look elsewhere when it came to the Brewers. And this was the discussion among insiders before Brandon Woodruff was placed on the IL on Sunday.
Another talking point is that whichever team ends up with the best record in each league will do so by just a handful of wins — not enough to declare anyone the odds-on favorite next month.
Do MLB insiders think the Dodgers will turn it on in October again, as they did last season?
Gonzalez: They seem mixed. There are some — both inside and outside the Dodgers — who will tell you this group is deeper and more talented than the one that won it all last year. That their rotation is far superior. That their bullpen has the ability to be just as good, even if that hasn’t necessarily been the case during the regular season. That their lineup is probably still the best in the sport when it’s clicking.
But then there are those who continue to point out the obvious: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will go into October not knowing who to turn to for the final three outs of a game on any given night. It has gotten so bad — with Tanner Scott struggling, Blake Treinen reeling, Michael Kopech a mess, Kirby Yates unreliable, Brock Stewart hurt and few others outside of Alex Vesia stepping up — that Roki Sasaki is genuinely being considered for a high-leverage role. Just as much of a concern is the status of catcher and middle-of-the-order hitter Will Smith, who sustained a hairline fracture in his right hand near the end of arguably his best offensive season.
Passan: Everything Alden says is correct. And yet the absence of another team stepping into the vacuum the Dodgers have created allows them, in the minds of many, to maintain their status as the favorite.
Shohei Ohtani has been the best hitter in the sport in September, to say nothing of his 14⅔ shutout innings this month, including five hitless in a Sept. 16 start against the Philadelphia Phillies. Mookie Betts, who has not looked like Mookie Betts for much of the season, looks like Mookie Betts again. His home run stroke is back, and he’s tied with Juan Soto for the MLB lead in RBIs this month with 21.
In September, Dodgers hitters are tied for second in home runs and third in wOBA. The offense is a mammoth, even without Smith, and for all of the pitching questions Los Angeles carries, what resides in that clubhouse is enough talent to overcome them. This is the value of a deep team. There’s still enough to win another ring.
Do those in the game think the Yankees will make another deep October run?
Castillo: Yes, because the American League is wide open and the Yankees just might have the most talented roster, top to bottom, in the field. A National League front-office executive recently said he believes the Yankees are the favorite to win the pennant again because of their blend of talent, experience and ability to inflict damage on opposing pitchers. The Yankees lead the majors in runs scored and home runs. Their starting rotation has the second-lowest ERA in baseball since the trade deadline. Their bullpen is filled with relievers with real track records. The pieces are there for a run.
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Olney: I think that’s easily envisioned, not only because the Yankees played in the last week of October just last year, but because the field is so wide open. But there are two problems cited constantly by evaluators with other teams.
No. 1: “They are a terrible defensive team,” said one AL coach, and he’s hardly alone in feeling that way. The Yankees push back on that notion, but that is certainly a perception. And No. 2: Their bullpen performance this year has been so erratic. The closer’s role has been passed around — what, a half-dozen times? — and Devin Williams’ performance can range from pure dominance to total meltdown.
I bet if you gave truth serum to those in the Yankees’ organization, the general sentiment would be that they have no idea what to expect from this group in the playoffs.
Who do those in the game think could be this October’s most dangerous teams?
Rogers: The Mariners aren’t exactly flying under the radar anymore considering their recent win streak and series win in Houston, but some believe their pitching staff is just starting to peak, while others simply think they have prime-time players such as Randy Arozarena who have October upside. And that’s the word heard most often with the Mariners: They have tons of upside.
In the NL, the Chicago Cubs are starting to garner sleeper status. One executive mentioned that although their strengths don’t wow you at first glance, there’s no weakness to any part of their game. “If it’s the Cubs and Brewers in the division series,” he said, “can you pick a winner?”
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Gonzalez: A current player who has been around awhile was trying recently to describe what it’s like being on the field at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia for a playoff game and couldn’t. The noise, he said, is deafening, unlike anything he had experienced anywhere else. His point was that the Phillies’ home-field advantage in October is more real than anybody else’s. And if there’s one team outside the reigning-champion Dodgers and the MLB-leading Brewers that sticks out in the minds of evaluators and players this coming month, it’s that one.
Even with Zack Wheeler out, the Phillies’ three lefty starters — Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo — are good enough to get it done. Their closer, Jhoan Duran, is considered almost impossible to hit. And then there’s the lineup littered with stars who have experience on the big stage and know this might be their best opportunity to win it all. The Phillies’ roster might be too expensive to be considered under the radar, but in what many consider to be a wide-open field, they’re the ones that come up in conversation most often as the most dangerous.
Who are some under-the-radar players with industry buzz as potential postseason stars?
Passan: None of the Reds’ elite young talent has postseason experience, and facing the Dodgers would be one hell of an introduction for shortstop Elly De La Cruz, right-hander Hunter Greene and left-hander Andrew Abbott. The latter two provide a whale of a one-two punch, especially in a best-of-three series, and if the Reds can hold off the Mets and Diamondbacks, the pitching matchups against Los Angeles would be tantalizing, regardless of whom the Dodgers choose among Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Emmet Sheehan and Clayton Kershaw. The first five have combined for a 1.69 ERA in September.
How Toronto chooses to use rookie Trey Yesavage in the postseason will be fascinating to see. The rare player to spend time at Low-A, High-A, Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues in the same year, the 22-year-old right-hander, chosen 20th in the 2024 draft out of East Carolina, followed a dominant debut against Tampa Bay with a pedestrian outing against Kansas City. He has a mid-90s fastball that plays well high in the zone and a splitter that’s a gnarly complement.
Yesavage probably won’t start, but Toronto could piggyback him with a starter, slot him in a bulk role after an opener, deploy him as a multi-inning leverage weapon or have him eat an inning at a time. Whatever Toronto does, Yesavage, who has worked out of the bullpen in the minor leagues in anticipation of this, will be ready.
Castillo: Cal Raleigh — rightfully so — has attracted the shine in the Pacific Northwest this season, but the Mariners need their other All-Star position player to deliver in October if they’re going to play for the franchise’s first World Series title. And Julio Rodriguez has delivered since the All-Star break. Another slow start marred the center fielder’s overall numbers, but Rodriguez is slashing .295/.333/.570 with 17 home runs in the second half. His .903 OPS and elite defense registers as MVP-level production. Rodriguez was around for the Mariners’ last trip to the postseason in 2022, but the charismatic 24-year-old will have a chance to cement himself as one of the game’s superstars with a deep October run.
