Is Major League Baseball headed for disaster?
One year from today — on Dec. 1, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET, to be exact — the league’s current labor agreement expires.
As the owners and players look to agree on a new collective bargaining agreement, there are major hurdles to clear and some key areas of disagreement.
Will we see a work stoppage in 2027? Is a salary cap coming? ESPN MLB experts Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez field some of the biggest questions looming over the sport.
Is there any chance that the two sides could come to an agreement before next December’s deadline — and what happens if they don’t?
Sure. There’s always a chance. It’s akin to the chance that Lloyd Christmas had with Mary Swanson, but it’s a chance nonetheless.
The greater likelihood, if past is indeed prologue, points toward the league locking out the players Dec. 1, 2026. A lockout would shut down free agency and trades, as it did in 2021, and set an even more important, though informal, deadline: early to mid-March 2027, the drop-dead date for potentially losing regular-season games.
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What happens between today and a year from today could have significant bearing on avoiding the doomsday scenario: that not only are the players locked out, but the sides cannot find common ground thereafter. The greatest threat of an extended work stoppage — baseball’s last was in 1994-95 — would come if owners insist on an overhaul of the game’s economic system to include a salary cap. Player leadership has indicated it won’t even entertain the notion of a capped system.
At the same time, the union and executive director Tony Clark are in the middle of a federal investigation into MLBPA finances that launched around May 2025. Any pursuit of a prosecution by the government could have a demonstrable effect on union leadership and, potentially, its positions in bargaining. — Jeff Passan
What is the timeline for negotiations between now and Dec. 1, 2026?
While the sides held a preliminary meeting this fall and could have more informal sessions over the coming months, bargaining typically cranks up during spring training.
At that point, the sides will begin to make their priorities clear to each other, and it will offer a better sense of the issues that are expected to be central to the negotiations. The most pertinent will be just how firm the league is on its desire for a cap.
The initial offers are important to outline the broad strokes of the negotiations to come. The most important meetings, however, will take place closer to the Dec. 1, 2026, deadline, with November the most vital month to establish where the sides stand before the expected lockout. — Passan
Who are the primary names fans should know on both sides of the negotiations?
For the players: Deputy executive director Bruce Meyer is the lead negotiator, Clark the ultimate authority. There is a 38-member executive board of players, made up of eight elected, high-ranking subcommittee members (Cy Young winners Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal, plus veterans Chris Bassitt, Jake Cronenworth, Pete Fairbanks, Cedric Mullins, Marcus Semien and Brent Suter) and one representative from each team — the delegates for the rank-and-file.
For the league: Deputy commissioner Dan Halem is the lead negotiator, commissioner Rob Manfred the ultimate authority. The league’s labor policy committee — headed by Colorado Rockies owner Dick Monfort, who is joined by Hal Steinbrenner (New York Yankees), John Sherman (Kansas City Royals), Jerry Reinsdorf (Chicago White Sox), Ray Davis (Texas Rangers), Jim Pohlad (Minnesota Twins) and Mark Attanasio (Milwaukee Brewers) — is the proxy for the 30 owners. — Passan
How will the looming potential of a prolonged labor stoppage impact free agency this offseason?
Executives, league officials and agents are in agreement on one thing at this moment in the offseason: They’re simply not sure how things will shake out just yet in terms of spending. There are no grand predictions about the theme of the offseason, and the few early signings haven’t foreshadowed much, either.
Having said that, two emerging narratives seem to be prevalent. It’s business as usual for the annual World Series contenders like the Yankees, the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers — and now we can include the Toronto Blue Jays in that category.
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Phillies president Dave Dombrowski didn’t even hesitate when asked how the final year of labor might impact their winter.
“That is not something we talk about,” he said. “We’re going to proceed normally.”
You can expect the same from the Dodgers, who are attempting a rare three-peat in 2026.
Other organizations are waiting for more certainty, potentially in the form of a new economic system, before they jump back into serious spending. That might not come until after the next CBA is signed, which means that the looming end of the CBA will have some say in the offseason, even if it’s a small impact.
Chicago Cubs president Jed Hoyer admitted at the end of last season that many of his player contracts were designed to be up after 2026 — in other words when the CBA expires — in order to have relatively clean books heading into 2027 and beyond. Several agents and teams believe that cost certainty in the form of a new CBA — and, if MLB gets its way, a first-ever salary cap — will return spending back to higher levels simply because teams will understand their yearly costs more intimately after a new deal.
In the meantime, there’s a postseason and World Series to be played in 2026. And it’s just not the major markets that want to get a playoff run under their belts before things change, according to insiders. So look for free agents to do well in the market even with labor concerns percolating this winter. Yes, a few might take one-year deals, hoping the next economic system benefits them when they go back into the market — but there is certain to be plenty of momentum.
Agent Scott Boras summed it up when asked if spending would be depressed this winter, knowing what’s to come after next season.
“Historically we haven’t seen that, because teams always want to be their best,” he said. “The bottom line is teams understand they don’t have to pay players when there are strikes [or lockouts].” — Jesse Rogers
Will the battle over a potential salary cap be the primary topic discussed between owners and players in the year ahead?
There doesn’t appear to be much doubt about that. Economic disparity has been a hot-button issue for decades. The crumbling of the regional sports network (RSN) television model, which led to several teams losing out on local media revenue, has brought that topic to the forefront in recent years. And the unmitigated spending of teams like the Dodgers and New York Mets has only exacerbated the anger from owners throughout the industry, who continue to claim they don’t have the revenues to keep up.
Even Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner recently downplayed his franchise’s profit margins and spoke out in favor of a salary cap. If Steinbrenner, who presides over one of the most powerful sports franchises in the world, sounds open to one, imagine how strongly his counterparts in markets such as Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Tampa feel.
But the prevalence of free markets has been a tentpole issue throughout the MLB Players Association’s existence. Remember that, and you’ll start to understand how ugly this could get. — Alden Gonzalez
Which other issues will fans hear most from each side in the year ahead before the CBA expires?
A central issue for the union during the last round of talks was on how to get players paid sooner, a counter to the middle class of free agency continuing to dry up. As a result of the current CBA, minimum salaries went up, the prospect promotion incentive was introduced, and pre-arbitration bonus pools were established. Expect more talk around that subject in general. In all likelihood, MLB will once again argue that higher compensation for younger players needs to be coupled with a lower luxury tax threshold and will try once again to pair that with a salary floor. The MLBPA probably will say that steers too close to a traditional salary cap system, and on and on we’ll go again.
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So, yes, economics will dominate — particularly with changes to the revenue-sharing model desired by both parties and potentially providing a path to an agreement. But two other topics figure to be front and center. One is rules changes. In the last basic agreement, the league secured a shorter window to implement proposed amendments to rules, and with MLB’s majority of seats on the competition committee giving it authority over on-field play, the union desires more control. And then there’s the subject of an international draft. The league wants one.
During the last round of talks, the union entertained the possibility. After a new CBA was ratified, the two sides gave themselves an additional four months to agree on a trade: The league gets an international draft, the union does away with the qualifying offer. They couldn’t agree by the deadline, but this will come up again. — Gonzalez
