Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC Vegas 105

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight contenders Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., April 5, 2025) inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, at UFC Vegas 105.

It’s been about 15 months since Emmett separate Bryce Mitchell from consciousness (and further from reality) to return to the win column in absolutely stellar fashion. Emmett promises to return better and more powerful than ever, but he has a tall task ahead of him in Manchester’s Murphy. “The Miracle” is unbeaten in nine trips to the Octagon, and though he hasn’t always been spectacular, he’s been consistently improving fight-to-fight. The winner will leave this bout as a Top 10-ranked contender and relevant player in the 145-pound mix, while the loser likely ends up stuck on the outside looking in.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Emmett vs. Murphy Betting Odds

Josh Emmett victory: +260
Josh Emmett via TKO/KO/DQ: +450
Josh Emmett via submission: +6000
Josh Emmett via decision: +650
Lerone Murphy victory: -325
Lerone Murphy via TKO/KO/DQ: +240
Lerone Murphy via submission: +1500
Lerone Murphy via decision: -110
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Emmett Wins

Emmett is a powerhouse. Sometimes, he’s a bit too reliant on that infamous right hand, but he actually boxes quite well when he’s not swinging for the knockout. In addition, Emmett is a former collegiate wrestler whose defensive wrestling has held up quite well inside the Octagon, particularly at 145-pounds.

This fight will be a question of range. Murphy holds considerable edges in height and reach, and he’s generally the more active kicker. Emmett likes to box from the outside as well, but he’s going to have to close distance and hit from inside the pocket in order to put Murphy down.

The best way to kill space is throw more punches. I’d like to see Emmett extending his combinations, throwing more than 2-3 shots at a time. Attacking the body then building up towards the head is a great way to eliminate space, and Emmett has also shown some tricky shifting combos in the past that could work well here.

How Murphy Wins

Murphy has put together an excellent win streak on the strength of his well-rounded skill set. At various times, he’s boxed up opponents, broken them down with kicks, wrestled his way to victory, and sprawled-and-brawled against skilled grapplers.

Once more, it comes back to distance. Murphy wants to be at the edge of his range, stinging Emmett with jabs, landing kicks with power, and timing counters as the boxer as he tries to move forward. Murphy has a bit of a speed advantage, which should be very useful alongside that range edge.

The problem is there’s little room for error opposite Emmett. Murphy has to avoid the fence like his career depends on it … because it might. It might actually be worth taking a page from Ilia Topuria’s book and trying to time reactive takedowns to keep Emmett honest and prevent him from really charging forward unabated.

If Murphy can avoid a boxing match and really mix the martial arts, his odds of not getting blasted skyrocket.

Emmett vs. Murphy Prediction

The elephant in the room here is that Emmett is 40 years of age, and 40-year-old Featherweights rarely win fights at a high level.

I’m not sure age matters much here, however. Throughout his win streak, there have consistently been bad moments for Murphy. He’s lost rounds and gotten rocked on multiple occasions. His fights tend to be close, as he often fails to really push his advantages and get his opposition out of there.

Making a defensive lapse in front of Josh Emmett would be ill-advised. Similarly, giving him five rounds to work isn’t a great idea either. Emmett will more than likely have 25 minutes to find that right hand, and I’m not sure it takes that long regardless.

Prediction: Emmett via knockout