A plot twist in the West, plus Pavia’s Manziel connection

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Good morning! Identify your nemesis today. Inside: 

NBA: The West’s other inevitable team

It was clear before the season that the NBA had one inevitable team in the Western Conference. Then the Thunder looked extra inevitable as they started 24-1, giving themselves a real shot at setting the league’s wins record.

OKC, at 46-15, is still excellent and still the defending champion. After missing nine games with an abdominal strain, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was his reigning MVP self in last night’s testy OT win against Denver, with 36 points and nine assists. But now there’s another young team in the West that looks every bit the juggernaut the Thunder have become — and that team has OKC’s number. The NBA’s ultimate foregone conclusion is now a lot less foregone.

Enter the Spurs, who beat the Nets by 16 on Thursday to win their 11th game in a row and move to 43-16. The Victor Wembanyama breakout is in full bloom, to the extent that he’s now a fringy MVP candidate. In our NBA newsletter, Zach Harper wondered this week if San Antonio could win it all this year. Maybe! Sam Amick argues they’ve got a real shot.

The Thunder still hold the West’s top seed by two games, but San Antonio is the conference’s top team (and No. 2 overall) in The Athletic’s power rankings. Sadly, there is no trophy for February power ranking superiority. But it’s looking increasingly likely that the Spurs will get a chance to see the Thunder in a more important setting soon. If so, they’ll be confident.

The Spurs won the regular-season series 4-1. Only one other team (Minnesota) has beaten OKC more than once. San Antonio’s Wemby-led defense was punishing against OKC. The least efficient offense in the NBA this year (the Pacers’) averages 108.7 points per 100 possessions. The Thunder averaged 109.2 in their five Spurs games. Wemby and his friends have reduced this world-conquering OKC to 2026 Pacers levels. 

That the Spurs would get really good behind Wemby surprises nobody, but the core around him is ahead of schedule. Guards Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are a combined 40 years old and average 28 points between them, and both should become more efficient scorers with age. De’Aaron Fox is an All-Star. And the Spurs are even decent when Wemby sits, managing to tread water (an almost exactly even scoring margin) with him on the bench.

Say these teams meet in the conference finals, as now appears likely: How worried should a Thunder fan be about the Spurs? I asked Andrew Schlecht, the OKC-based NBA podcast producer for The Athletic who watches the Thunder up close all the time, to answer on a 1-to-10 scale. He put the number at 8. 

💬 Wemby presents problems to the Thunder no other player can, on both ends. They were accounting for him, perhaps even too much, in their losses to the Spurs. The only thing keeping this from being a 10 is that Thunder handled the Spurs pretty easily on Jan. 13 in OKC. It felt like the Thunder gained some confidence and were able to attack using their style on both ends, more so than in the previous matchups. But the Spurs have also enjoyed some unsustainable shooting performances against the Thunder. However, make no mistake: The Spurs do not fear the Thunder. Wemby dominates Chet Holmgren, and the Spurs’ guards have played with supreme confidence. The Thunder will have to pass a pretty big test if they meet in the conference finals.

If two teams are inevitable, neither is. A matchup can be, however.

News to Know

Position records fall in Indy

Today’s QB, wideout and running back workouts represent the marquee portion of the NFL Combine — follow our live updates here — but there are some crazy numbers to note from yesterday. Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq and Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers both set tight end records — Sadiq with a 4.39 40-yard dash, Stowers with a 45.5-inch vertical. Meanwhile Ohio State’s Lorenzo Styles Jr. became the fastest-ever combine safety with a 4.27-second 40, one day after his brother Sonny was this year’s fastest linebacker (4.46).

Ex-Michigan coach accused of sex assault

The Atlanta Falcons fired assistant coach LaTroy Lewis after learning of an investigation into an alleged sexual assault that occurred while Lewis was an assistant at Michigan. The details of the allegation are deeply distressing, including that the woman in the case went to then-Michigan coach Sherrone Moore for help, only for him to say there was nothing he could do and then attempt to pursue his own physical relationship with her. Moore’s attorney denies those claims. Read the full story here.

More news:

The Champions League’s round of 16 is set, featuring a Club World Cup final rematch between Chelsea and PSG and the gazillionth Real Madrid vs. Man City showdown. Our experts break it all down here.

The arena horn went haywire in the middle of the Pistons-Cavs game, blaring for 13 straight minutes while the game stopped, the music was dialed up and something like a party ensued.

It’s unlikely, but kickboxer Rico Verhoeven could become a heavyweight boxing champion in his second bout, given the WBC title will be on the line when he meets Oleksandr Usyk at the Pyramids of Giza this May. Boxing!

While other people stood around recording, two Nebraska-Omaha women’s basketball players rescued a trapped driver from a sinkhole. Wild images and a great read here.

MLS Cup winners Inter Miami will visit the White House next week, with the obvious question being whether Leo Messi will be there.

In order for you to get the full experience, it’s best that we only tell you this short clip involves PGA golfer Ryan Gerard and a crow. 🫣

📰 Find more news here 24/7.

Watch Guide

📺 NCAAM: No. 11 Virginia at No. 1 Duke12 p.m. ET on ESPNDuke hasn’t lost since that heartbreaker in Chapel Hill on Feb. 7 and is gradually trending from “really good team” to “quite possibly the best in the sport.” UVA also hasn’t lost since it last played UNC, but in the Hoos’ case, that was more than a month ago. This is Ryan Odom’s shot at a proper signature win in his first year on the job.

📺 NCAAM: No. 14 Kansas at No. 2 Arizona4 p.m. ET on ESPNIt’s a stacked college hoops day in general, with a handful of other ranked-on-ranked matchups. Full men’s schedule here. The big subplot will continue to be Darryn Peterson, the KU freshman and future lottery pick whose commitment to his team has been under scrutiny. Arizona has the overall better team, though, and is playing at home.

Get tickets to games like this here.

Pulse Picks

Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Jed Jacobsohn, Maddie Meyer, David Ramos / Getty Images

What’ll make us happy? Most people, including elite athletes, are bad at predicting that, as Rustin Dodd explains. But there are a few tips inside this story.

I never thought I’d become a wine guy, and I’m not, I only seem to like rosé. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Anyway, I’ve been picking up La Vieille Ferme Rosé at Kroger recently. Really enjoy it. If you forget the name, just do what I did today and Google “french chicken wine.” — Patrick Iversen

Stewart Mandel indulged a reader’s question about his 10 commandments to make college football better for everybody, and then Jason Kirk also gave his take on those answers. Good stuff.

These buttermilk-brown sugar waffles elevated our recent breakfast-for-dinner night immensely and reheat easily from frozen. — Torrey Hart

Lindsey Vonn’s public ownership of her Olympic trauma could be a game changer for other athletes, as Sarah Shephard writes.

If your once-speedy smart TV is now slow, unresponsive, or prone to crashing, good news! A few quick tweaks — like clearing the cache and uninstalling unused apps — can likely speed it back up again. If none of that works and you’ve had your TV for more than five or six years, it might be time for a replacement. — Lee Neikirk

Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: The NFLPA’s team report cards.

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