To sports fans, Tuesday evening was epic for multiple reasons. Maxx Crosby’s trade to the Baltimore Ravens fell through. Team USA suffered a stunning upset to Italy in the World Baseball Classic.
But the most shocking occurrence from the sports world that night, at least to me, was Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo scoring 83 points against the Washington Wizards.
If I had to pick someone to pass Kobe Bryant’s 81 points (and jump to second place on the NBA’s single-game scoring leaderboard behind Wilt Chamberlain), I would never have selected Adebayo, a great two-way player who has averaged 16 points a game for his career. Players like Luka Dončić, who put up 73 two years ago, or Donovan Mitchell, who dropped 71 in 2023, come to mind first.
Speaking of Bryant, the first question a ton of my friends and colleagues asked me last night was: “Could people have bet on Adebayo breaking Kobe’s point total?”
The answer is no … well, at least until the game started.
After reaching out to several U.S. sportsbooks, I found that none offered a pregame bet on Adebayo (or anyone else, for that matter) surpassing Kobe’s 81 points. But there were some fun and interesting nuggets from Adebayo’s historic night to explore from a betting perspective.
No one saw this scoring outburst coming, not even the sportsbooks. Before the Heat faced off against the Wizards on Tuesday, Adebayo’s point total prop was set at 23.5 on BetMGM and 25.5 on DraftKings. Per BetMGM head of communications John Ewing, the total bets on Adebayo’s point total prop were low, but 67 percent of the money was on the over.
The highest pregame point total bet market I could find was offered by Fanatics Sportsbook, with an alternative bet on Adebayo scoring 40 or more points at +1700 odds.
His first-quarter point total was set to 6.5 at BetMGM, which looks absurd after he scored 31 points in the first quarter. And that’s when the betting markets started going crazy, especially on the live betting front.
After Adebayo scored 43 points in the first half, sportsbooks started offering high live point totals. The craziest one I found was at DraftKings, which actually offered a second-half market for him to reach 100 or more points at +4000 odds. In simple terms, a $10 bet on that would have paid out $400 at those odds. During the second half of the game, Fanatics offered a live point total bet of Adebayo scoring 76 or more points. If you put out a number, you can be sure someone will put some money on it, as was the case for one bettor who wagered $1,500 on it at +175 odds when Bam had 70 points in the game. The bettor cashed in big, winning $4,125.
Looking ahead, the Heat host the Milwaukee Bucks Thursday night, a game Miami is favored to win by 6.5 points. Did Adebayo’s scoring outburst on Tuesday impact his point total for tonight’s game? Apparently not. FanDuel and other sportsbooks set his point total prop at 22.5.
“Oddsmakers use a combination of recent form and season averages, while also incorporating the game’s point spread,” betting expert and The Athletic contributor Doug Kezirian said. “Miami was favored by 15.5, so there was a scenario where Bam would sit in the fourth quarter. However, sharp bettors understood a higher need for his scoring, given the Heat were playing without three of their top six players. Oddsmakers have told me they will not adjust his points prop for the next game.”
